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Elgin vs Dumbarton Result & Analysis

Date: 29/04/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
29%
29%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.49
Edge
-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.42
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
41.5%
Avg Implied 36.4% · @ 2.52
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L14L02L03L01L03L11D20W13LA·DUM25/02H·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04H·FOR15/04A·STR22/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.671.131.271.272.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.901.601.000.800.802.40
vs Weaker (20)1.351.701.201.501.501.90
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W15L22D01L12L13L20W00D10WH·STE28/02A·STR04/03H·ALB18/03A·STI25/03H·FOR29/03H·STE01/04A·ANN08/04A·BON15/04H·STI18/04H·EAS22/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.171.201.001.271.33
vs Stronger (14)1.360.861.251.121.500.50
vs Similar (16)1.121.441.140.861.111.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.73-7.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
@ 2.02+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
10.0%
0-0
9.4%
1-2
8.8%
1-0 ✓
7.9%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.1%
Elgin goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
01234
09.4%10.0%7.8%3.6%1.2%
17.9%14%8.8%4.0%1.4%
25.1%7.1%4.9%2.3%0.8%
31.9%2.7%1.9%0.9%0.3%
40.5%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin is 0.61 points worse than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.72).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Elgin is 0.14 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.36).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Elgin is 0.64 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.08).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 2.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

1202423481652374365232651277107675A·STRH·FORH·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BONA·DUM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

701231113331521330124264716A·STRH·FORH·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BONA·DUM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

3208141013612461077717151015812151522231810171432252030A·STRH·FORH·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BONA·DUM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

1304557211627852573436691237913710712H·EASH·STIA·BONA·ANNH·STEH·FORA·STIH·ALBA·STRH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

90112235641145412322486519552H·EASH·STIA·BONA·ANNH·STEH·FORA·STIH·ALBA·STRH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.1 · Total 22.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

280813187141414101081551012129111411921252824182022212520H·EASH·STIA·BONA·ANNH·STEH·FORA·STIH·ALBA·STRH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.78.88.64.14.04.322.221.722.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (17)8.39.37.13.93.64.222.923.322.4
vs Weaker (33)8.98.59.24.34.24.421.920.823.0
% over line38%36%40%60%60%60%53%44%62%
% under line62%64%60%40%40%40%47%56%38%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.010.59.54.54.15.020.420.020.9
vs Stronger (29)9.710.09.44.54.24.820.620.321.1
vs Similar (21)10.411.39.64.63.95.320.219.620.7
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line56%64%48%68%60%76%41%32%50%
% under line44%36%52%32%40%24%59%68%50%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
11.0
Forfar
10.5
Dumbarton
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.8
Albion Rvs
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.5
Stranraer
9.4
Stirling
9.2
East Fife
9.2
Elgin
8.7

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Elgin
4.1
East Fife
4.1
Albion Rvs
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Stranraer
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
22.4
Elgin
22.2
Forfar
22.1
Albion Rvs
21.6
East Fife
21.4
Stranraer
21.1
Stirling
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.7
Stenhousemuir
20.6
Dumbarton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.8%
Under 9.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.0%
Under 3.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
47.3%
Under 21.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D12L01L02L01L00D00D20W01LA·DUM25/02H·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04H·FOR15/04A·STR22/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.530.670.730.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.500.200.600.600.40
vs Weaker (20)0.750.800.700.700.800.90
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W04L11D00D10W03L00D00D00DH·STE28/02A·STR04/03H·ALB18/03A·STI25/03H·FOR29/03H·STE01/04A·ANN08/04A·BON15/04H·STI18/04H·EAS22/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.670.530.330.67
vs Stronger (14)0.500.640.620.880.330.33
vs Similar (16)0.500.560.710.140.330.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L02L01L01L00D03L11D00D12LA·DUM25/02H·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04H·FOR15/04A·STR22/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.970.600.600.531.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.501.100.800.200.202.00
vs Weaker (20)0.600.900.500.800.701.00
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D11D01L02L10W20W00D10WH·STE28/02A·STR04/03H·ALB18/03A·STI25/03H·FOR29/03H·STE01/04A·ANN08/04A·BON15/04H·STI18/04H·EAS22/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.530.470.930.67
vs Stronger (14)0.860.210.620.251.170.17
vs Similar (16)0.620.880.430.710.781.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards83.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls81.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners78.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
ELG wins
0
Draws
2
DUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Dumbarton · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23ADumbarton Vs ELG1-2
12/11/22HELG Vs Dumbarton0-4
27/08/22ADumbarton Vs ELG2-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23AStranraer Vs ELG3-1
15/04/23HELG Vs Forfar2-0
11/04/23HELG Vs Stenhousemuir1-1
08/04/23AAlbion Rvs Vs ELG3-0
04/04/23AStirling Vs ELG1-0
01/04/23HELG Vs Stirling0-3
24/03/23AEast Fife Vs ELG2-0
11/03/23AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG4-1
04/03/23HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose0-1
25/02/23ADumbarton Vs ELG1-2

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23HDUM Vs East Fife1-0
18/04/23HDUM Vs Stirling0-0
15/04/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs DUM0-2
08/04/23AAnnan Athletic Vs DUM3-1
01/04/23HDUM Vs Stenhousemuir1-2
29/03/23HDUM Vs Forfar0-1
25/03/23AStirling Vs DUM2-2
18/03/23HDUM Vs Albion Rvs1-5
04/03/23AStranraer Vs DUM0-2
28/02/23HDUM Vs Stenhousemuir1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.04
HomeLLLDW1.16
AwayLLLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.762.562.96
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.121.161.08
Conceded1.641.401.88
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners8.688.808.56
Cards4.143.964.32
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.54
HomeLLLDW1.68
AwayLWDLW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%40%
AVG goals2.662.323.00
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %28%16%40%
Scored1.381.281.48
Conceded1.281.041.52
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners10.0210.529.52
Cards4.544.085.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose		3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs		3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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