Elgin’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, fuels the model’s confidence in a home victory, reflected in a 67% chance of winning. The model picks a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely result, with a 10.9% probability, while the expected total goals sit at 3.2, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. Elgin’s home form shows they average 1.56 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Dumbarton, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.17 scored and 3.0 conceded. The match outcome probabilities are 67% for a home win, 20% for a draw, and 13% for an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 7.5 (98.4%), Home +2 handicap (95.8%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.8%), Under 5.5 (89.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.6%) and Home or Draw (87.4%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are assigned a win chance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win
67.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.77
1.67
1.53
1.80
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.91
1.83
2.83
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.83
1.11
1.56
0.67
2.11
1.56
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.33
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
2.08
1.50
1.17
1.17
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.56
1.22
1.22
0.33
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
8.7%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
5.1%
4-0
4.6%
Elgin goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
2.9%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.7%
9.5%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.2%
7.4%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.6%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Elgin is 1.60 points better than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Elgin is 3.00 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (3.40 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Elgin is 1.00 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.0
2.2
2.1
2.2
21.6
20.3
22.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
8.9
9.3
8.6
1.9
1.6
2.1
22.1
16.3
25.6
vs Weaker (33)
10.1
9.5
10.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
21.4
21.4
21.4
% over line
53%
50%
56%
30%
38%
21%
53%
43%
62%
% under line
47%
50%
44%
70%
62%
79%
47%
57%
38%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.9
9.3
2.0
2.5
1.5
20.2
20.8
19.7
vs Stronger (19)
10.8
12.2
9.2
1.7
2.0
1.2
19.8
19.3
20.4
vs Similar (31)
9.9
10.3
9.4
2.3
2.9
1.6
20.5
21.5
19.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
59%
40%
26%
38%
12%
41%
47%
33%
% under line
50%
41%
60%
74%
62%
88%
59%
53%
67%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.6%
Under 9.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 3.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
45.7%
Under 21.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elgin or Draw
87.4%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Elgin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin or Dumbarton
79.9%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Elgin + Dumbarton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dumbarton
32.6%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Draw + Dumbarton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elgin over/under 0.5
Over
89.6%
Under
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 3.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elgin, so a minus line means Elgin give that many goals of a start and Dumbarton receive them. At -1, Elgin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elgin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elgin)
Elgin -2
24.6%
Draw -2
20.4%
Dumbarton +2
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elgin)
Elgin -1
45.0%
Draw -1
22.4%
Dumbarton +1
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Elgin)
Elgin +1
87.4%
Draw +1
8.3%
Dumbarton -1
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elgin)
Elgin +2
95.8%
Draw +2
3.2%
Dumbarton -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.93
0.47
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.09
1.00
0.83
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.56
0.89
0.22
1.11
0.89
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.20
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.72
0.44
0.67
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.82
0.83
2.00
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.56
0.67
0.44
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.87
0.60
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.83
0.78
0.56
0.22
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling