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Elgin vs Forfar Result & Analysis

Date: 15/04/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
27%
32%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.59
Edge
-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.14
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.58
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L03L21W01L14L02L03L01L03L11DH·STR18/02A·ALB21/02A·DUM25/02H·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.701.131.401.332.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.901.601.000.800.802.40
vs Weaker (20)1.401.751.201.701.601.80
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D23L21W02L11D10W21W00DH·STE11/02H·STI25/02A·BON28/02A·EAS04/03H·ANN18/03A·STI21/03A·STE25/03A·DUM29/03H·ALB01/04A·STR08/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.201.131.471.070.93
vs Stronger (12)1.171.081.171.331.170.83
vs Similar (18)1.061.281.111.561.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.7%
Under 1.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.4%
@ 1.90-13.7%
Under 2.5
64.6%
@ 1.83+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.4%
Under 3.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.4%
0-1
13.2%
1-0
9.7%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
6.0%
2-0 ✓
5.0%
Elgin goals ↓
Forfar goals →
01234
013%13%8.7%3.5%1.1%
19.7%15%8.0%3.2%1.0%
25.0%6.0%3.6%1.5%0.4%
31.5%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin is 0.22 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.33).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Elgin is 0.19 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.03).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Elgin is 0.53 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.19).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 3.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

1204816523743652321343127710767547H·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BONA·DUMA·ALBH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

702311133315213322332426471646H·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BONA·DUMA·ALBH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

3206124610777171510158121515101071118101714322520302018H·STEA·ALBA·STIH·STIA·EASA·ANNH·BONA·DUMA·ALBH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ForfarForfar

For 5.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

150321225895268556352106951413148131181215A·STRH·ALBA·DUMA·STEA·STIH·ANNA·EASA·BONH·STIH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7012122132415521111214466721A·STRH·ALBA·DUMA·STEA·STIH·ANNA·EASA·BONH·STIH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

350111214851561398121751120159871023222019172916351717A·STRH·ALBA·DUMA·STEA·STIH·ANNA·EASA·BONH·STIH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.78.98.44.24.04.422.021.622.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (18)8.39.27.13.83.54.222.823.222.4
vs Weaker (32)8.98.79.14.54.44.521.620.622.5
% over line38%36%40%60%60%60%51%44%58%
% under line62%64%60%40%40%40%49%56%42%
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.611.49.83.73.44.022.021.123.0
vs Stronger (21)11.612.910.44.23.54.922.120.623.5
vs Similar (29)9.910.49.43.33.33.322.021.522.6
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line62%76%48%54%40%68%46%44%48%
% under line38%24%52%46%60%32%54%56%52%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.9
Forfar
10.6
Dumbarton
10.4
Annan Athletic
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Stranraer
9.7
Albion Rvs
9.4
East Fife
9.2
Stirling
9.1
Elgin
8.7

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Stirling
4.1
East Fife
4.1
Albion Rvs
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Forfar
3.7

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
22.1
Elgin
22.0
Forfar
22.0
Albion Rvs
21.9
East Fife
21.2
Annan Athletic
21.1
Stirling
21.1
Stranraer
21.1
Stenhousemuir
20.7
Dumbarton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.7%
Under 9.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.9%
Under 3.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
52.7%
Under 21.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D00D12L01L02L01L00D00DH·STR18/02A·ALB21/02A·DUM25/02H·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.530.730.800.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.500.200.600.600.40
vs Weaker (20)0.800.850.700.800.900.90
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D00D11D11D00D01L00D01L00DH·STE11/02H·STI25/02A·BON28/02A·EAS04/03H·ANN18/03A·STI21/03A·STE25/03A·DUM29/03H·ALB01/04A·STR08/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.570.330.870.470.27
vs Stronger (12)0.330.420.330.670.330.17
vs Similar (18)0.440.670.331.000.560.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L10W01L02L01L01L00D03L11DH·STR18/02A·ALB21/02A·DUM25/02H·BON04/03A·ANN11/03A·EAS24/03H·STI01/04A·STI04/04A·ALB08/04H·STE11/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.970.600.670.531.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.501.100.800.200.202.00
vs Weaker (20)0.600.900.500.900.700.90
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ForfarForfar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D12L10W02L10W10W20W00DH·STE11/02H·STI25/02A·BON28/02A·EAS04/03H·ANN18/03A·STI21/03A·STE25/03A·DUM29/03H·ALB01/04A·STR08/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.800.600.600.67
vs Stronger (12)0.830.670.830.670.830.67
vs Similar (18)0.610.610.780.560.440.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards78.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls77.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards75.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ELG wins
4
Draws
2
FOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Forfar · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
02/01/23AForfar Vs ELG0-1
15/10/22HELG Vs Forfar0-1
13/08/22AForfar Vs ELG2-2
05/03/22AForfar Vs ELG0-0
02/01/22HELG Vs Forfar1-0
06/11/21AForfar Vs ELG2-1
21/08/21HELG Vs Forfar1-1
18/03/17HELG Vs Forfar1-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/23HELG Vs Stenhousemuir1-1
08/04/23AAlbion Rvs Vs ELG3-0
04/04/23AStirling Vs ELG1-0
01/04/23HELG Vs Stirling0-3
24/03/23AEast Fife Vs ELG2-0
11/03/23AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG4-1
04/03/23HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose0-1
25/02/23ADumbarton Vs ELG1-2
21/02/23AAlbion Rvs Vs ELG3-0
18/02/23HELG Vs Stranraer0-1

ForfarForfar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23AStranraer Vs FOR0-0
01/04/23HFOR Vs Albion Rvs2-1
29/03/23ADumbarton Vs FOR0-1
25/03/23AStenhousemuir Vs FOR1-1
21/03/23AStirling Vs FOR2-0
18/03/23HFOR Vs Annan Athletic2-1
04/03/23AEast Fife Vs FOR3-2
28/02/23ABonnyrigg Rose Vs FOR1-1
25/02/23HFOR Vs Stirling0-0
11/02/23HFOR Vs Stenhousemuir1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.02
HomeDLLLD1.08
AwayWLLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%28%24%
AVG goals2.762.562.96
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.121.121.12
Conceded1.641.441.84
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners8.688.928.44
Cards4.244.044.44
Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.40
HomeWDDWW1.52
AwayLLDWD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.262.522.00
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %36%48%24%
Over 3.5 %20%28%12%
Scored1.141.320.96
Conceded1.121.201.04
BTTS50%60%40%
Clean Sheet32%32%32%
Corners10.6011.409.80
Cards3.683.364.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose		3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs		3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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