This Scotland: League Two match between Elgin and Forfar on August 8th is finely balanced, with Elgin coming off a win against Kelty Hearts, while Forfar secured a 3-0 victory over Stirling. The model predicts a home win for Elgin, with a 40% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of an away win.
Elgin is expected to score an average of 1.42 goals at home, conceding 0.75 goals, while Forfar averages 0.5 goals away and concedes 2.0 goals against stronger opponents. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 74.4% chance of hitting, and Under 3.5, with a 73.8% chance of hitting. Elgin has a 40% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 (74.4%), Under 3.5 (73.8%), and Home win (40%), Away win (31%), and Draw (29%).
The draw between Elgin and Forfar was a surprise, as it extended Elgin's run of wins and came just a day after they defeated Kelty Hearts 4-1. The actual result was a 1-1 draw, not a win for the pre-match favourite, Elgin. The model's selection, Home win, had a 40% probability of occurring, but it was wrong. The model's call was correct for Over 1.5, with a 74.4% probability, as it hit, and Under 3.5, with a 73.8% probability, as it also hit.
Elgin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.60 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.90 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 3.20 | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.68 | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 2.11 | 1.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.53 | 1.47 | 0.85 | 1.92 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 1.00 | 2.20 | 1.30 | 1.70 | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.54 | 1.15 | 2.00 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Forfar goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 14% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Elgin
Forfar
Elgin| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 22.5 | 21.6 | 23.2 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 9.7 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 22.5 | 21.2 | 23.3 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 10.9 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 22.5 | 21.7 | 23.2 |
| % over line | 62% | 59% | 65% | 42% | 52% | 32% | 59% | 53% | 65% |
| % under line | 38% | 41% | 35% | 58% | 48% | 68% | 41% | 47% | 35% |
Forfar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 23.9 | 23.6 | 24.3 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 9.5 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 24.9 | 23.1 | 27.0 |
| vs Similar (23) | 8.8 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 23.8 | 24.3 | 23.2 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 21.2 | 21.0 | 21.5 |
| % over line | 50% | 55% | 44% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 68% | 65% | 72% |
| % under line | 50% | 45% | 56% | 54% | 50% | 58% | 32% | 35% | 28% |
Elgin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.50 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 0.84 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.30 | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.14 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Elgin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.03 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.40 | 1.80 | 0.40 | 2.20 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 0.84 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.23 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.62 | 0.92 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 0.14 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 73.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 27/12/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/01/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/11/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/08/24 | A | 1-1 |
Elgin| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
Forfar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/07/26 | A | 8-0 | |
| 14/07/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 05/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Elgin | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 4.4 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Clyde | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | Forfar | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 | Edinburgh City | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 5 | Stranraer | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Spartans | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 4.6 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | - |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Kelty Hearts | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 9 | Stirling | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.4 | - |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | - |