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Elgin vs Kelty Hearts Result & Analysis

Date: 19/03/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 0-0
Elgin
Elgin
Vs
29%
29%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elgin win✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.16
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.69
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts win✗ Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.74
Edge
-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W12L04L12L02L02L31W00D12LH·ALB15/01H·KEL25/01A·STE29/01A·KEL05/02H·STR12/02H·ANN15/02A·COW19/02H·STI26/02A·FOR05/03A·ANN12/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.501.331.130.731.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.201.502.000.600.402.40
vs Weaker (20)0.951.501.001.400.901.60
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L32W40W01L10W31W10W10W31W00DA·ELG25/01H·STR29/01H·ELG05/02A·FOR19/02H·COW22/02H·ANN26/02A·COW05/03A·STE08/03H·ALB12/03A·ALB16/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.030.832.200.671.861.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)2.000.452.830.501.000.40
vs Weaker (18)2.061.061.780.782.331.33
Clean sheet %48% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
@ 1.73-7.7%
Under 2.5
53.8%
@ 2.02+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
9.9%
0-0 ✓
9.3%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
7.8%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.1%
Elgin goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
01234
09.3%9.9%7.8%3.6%1.3%
17.8%14%8.8%4.1%1.4%
25.1%7.1%5.0%2.3%0.8%
31.9%2.7%1.9%0.9%0.3%
40.5%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Elgin is 1.22 points worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 2.25).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Elgin is 0.97 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.89).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Elgin is 0.64 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 0.78).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ElginElgin

For 4.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

12057464353525456426621210785791088A·ANNA·FORH·STIA·COWH·ANNH·STRA·KELA·STEH·KELH·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7033232233232134123354353373A·ANNA·FORH·STIA·COWH·ANNH·STRA·KELA·STEH·KELH·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

30091511912181214910810159141013910424203026191824242214A·FORH·STIA·COWH·ANNH·STRA·KELA·STEH·KELH·ALBA·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

For 5.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.5

ðŸšĐ Corners

1505325934541153754396287129515109128A·ALBH·ALBA·STEA·COWH·ANNH·COWA·FORH·ELGH·STRA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80221153241412311432318653327A·ALBH·ALBA·STEA·COWH·ANNH·COWA·FORH·ELGH·STRA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 9.1 · Total 18.8

⚠ïļ Fouls

270911872316111410671010108121010142015527241320182224A·ALBH·ALBA·STEA·COWH·ANNH·COWA·FORH·ELGH·STRA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.08.39.84.04.33.822.522.822.1
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (18)10.310.110.43.73.44.021.820.722.9
vs Weaker (32)8.37.29.44.24.83.722.924.121.7
% over line34%20%48%56%64%48%57%60%54%
% under line66%80%52%44%36%52%43%40%46%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (29)9.19.09.13.33.53.120.119.920.4
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (11)9.610.09.23.73.34.219.918.022.2
vs Weaker (18)8.78.39.13.13.72.420.221.119.3
% over line41%33%50%38%47%29%38%27%50%
% under line59%67%50%62%53%71%62%73%50%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
9.8
Cowdenbeath
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.5
Stirling
9.3
Albion Rvs
9.2
Forfar
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.1
Stranraer
9.0
Elgin
9.0
Edinburgh City
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.1
Elgin
4.0
Stranraer
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.4
Forfar
3.4
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Albion Rvs
2.9

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Stirling
23.2
Stranraer
22.6
Annan Athletic
22.6
Elgin
22.5
Cowdenbeath
22.2
Forfar
22.1
Stenhousemuir
22.0
Albion Rvs
21.7
Edinburgh City
20.6
Kelty Hearts
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
35.5%
Under 9.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
45.5%
Under 21.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W12L02L01L02L01L20W00D00DH·ALB15/01H·KEL25/01A·STE29/01A·KEL05/02H·STR12/02H·ANN15/02A·COW19/02H·STI26/02A·FOR05/03A·ANN12/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.530.600.470.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.600.600.800.200.401.00
vs Weaker (20)0.450.750.400.800.500.70
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W20W00D00D20W10W00D20W00DA·ELG25/01H·STR29/01H·ELG05/02A·FOR19/02H·COW22/02H·ANN26/02A·COW05/03A·STE08/03H·ALB12/03A·ALB16/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.311.000.201.070.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.910.271.170.330.600.20
vs Weaker (18)1.110.330.890.111.330.56
Clean sheet %72% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D02L11D00D01L11D00D12LH·ALB15/01H·KEL25/01A·STE29/01A·KEL05/02H·STR12/02H·ANN15/02A·COW19/02H·STI26/02A·FOR05/03A·ANN12/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.800.530.271.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.600.901.200.400.001.40
vs Weaker (20)0.500.750.600.600.400.90
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L20W01L10W11D00D10W11D00DA·ELG25/01H·STR29/01H·ELG05/02A·FOR19/02H·COW22/02H·ANN26/02A·COW05/03A·STE08/03H·ALB12/03A·ALB16/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.521.200.470.790.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.090.181.670.170.400.20
vs Weaker (18)0.940.720.890.671.000.78
Clean sheet %66% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 11.5 corners84.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls82.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards81.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners75.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards73.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls70.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
ELG wins
1
Draws
1
KH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elgin vs Kelty Hearts · H/A from ELG
DateH/AGameScore
05/02/22AKelty Hearts Vs ELG4-0
25/01/22HELG Vs Kelty Hearts2-0
11/09/21AKelty Hearts Vs ELG1-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/03/22AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG2-1
05/03/22AForfar Vs ELG0-0
26/02/22HELG Vs Stirling3-1
19/02/22ACowdenbeath Vs ELG2-0
15/02/22HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-2
12/02/22HELG Vs Stranraer1-2
05/02/22AKelty Hearts Vs ELG4-0
29/01/22AStenhousemuir Vs ELG2-1
25/01/22HELG Vs Kelty Hearts2-0
15/01/22HELG Vs Albion Rvs1-1

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/22AAlbion Rvs Vs KH0-0
12/03/22HKH Vs Albion Rvs3-1
08/03/22AStenhousemuir Vs KH0-1
05/03/22ACowdenbeath Vs KH0-1
26/02/22HKH Vs Annan Athletic3-1
22/02/22HKH Vs Cowdenbeath1-0
19/02/22AForfar Vs KH1-0
05/02/22HKH Vs Elgin4-0
29/01/22HKH Vs Stranraer3-2
25/01/22AElgin Vs KH2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.28
HomeDWLLW1.68
AwayLLLDL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals2.662.802.52
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.261.600.92
Conceded1.401.201.60
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners9.028.289.76
Cards4.044.283.80
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD2.34
HomeWWWWW2.60
AwayLLWWD2.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%80%64%
AVG goals2.862.872.86
Over 1.5 %69%73%64%
Over 2.5 %52%47%57%
Over 3.5 %41%40%43%
Scored2.032.201.86
Conceded0.830.671.00
BTTS45%53%36%
Clean Sheet48%47%50%
Corners9.079.009.14
Cards3.313.533.07

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3681
67%
2.2
6828+40
2.7
69%
47%
33%
9.0
39%
3.2
36%
20.0
33%
1
1001.90.8
-
2ForfarForfar3660
44%
1.7
5736+21
2.6
78%
36%
28%
9.3
47%
3.1
44%
22.2
47%
0
0001.61.0
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3659
50%
1.6
6451+13
3.2
86%
64%
42%
9.5
47%
3.8
53%
21.7
46%
0
0001.81.4
-
4Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3652
39%
1.4
4349-6
2.6
75%
47%
31%
8.9
50%
3.1
36%
19.6
31%
0
0001.21.4
-
5StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3649
36%
1.4
4746+1
2.6
78%
42%
28%
9.8
53%
3.7
61%
21.2
53%
0
0001.31.3
-
6StranraerStranraer3647
36%
1.3
5054-4
2.9
81%
53%
33%
8.8
39%
4.3
58%
22.1
53%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StirlingStirling3642
31%
1.2
4146-5
2.4
67%
44%
25%
8.4
25%
3.8
56%
21.7
47%
0
0001.11.3
-
8
AR
Albion Rvs
3639
28%
1.1
3758-21
2.6
67%
50%
33%
8.8
33%
3.0
33%
20.1
42%
0
0001.01.6
-
9ElginElgin3637
25%
1.0
3351-18
2.3
81%
36%
19%
8.1
22%
3.9
53%
22.9
60%
0
0000.91.4
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3629
19%
0.8
2849-21
2.1
64%
36%
17%
9.1
33%
3.9
53%
21.5
53%
0
0000.81.4
-
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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