Elgin and Stirling face a tightly contested clash, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 33% for a home victory, 26% for a draw and 41% for a win by the visitors, making Stirling the slight favourite. On average, the game should see about 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.8% probability. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Stirling, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 2.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 82.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.1% and Under 5.5 cards at 75.7%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
The match saw Stirling extend their recent run, with the final score 0-2 confirming an away win. The model had picked an away win with a 41% probability, and that call proved correct. The suggested selections all hit: Over 1.5 goals at 82.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.1% and Under 5.5 cards at 75.7%. Elgin’s home form remained unbeaten in their last five, yet they failed to score against a Stirling side that had been stronger away. The predictions were largely accurate, with the favoured outcome and every model pick materialising.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.74
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.50
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied 40.3% · @ 2.28
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.30
1.87
1.27
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.75
1.58
2.67
1.67
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.50
1.11
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.22
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
1.13
0.87
2.00
1.20
vs Stronger (15)
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.17
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.47
1.07
0.83
0.67
1.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.3%
@ 1.61+2.6%
Under 2.5
39.7%
@ 2.20-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.3%
No
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
0-2 ✓
6.0%
0-0
5.5%
1-0
5.4%
Elgin goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
6.2%
6.0%
3.3%
1.4%
1
5.4%
12%
8.8%
4.9%
2.0%
2
4.8%
7.9%
6.5%
3.6%
1.5%
3
2.3%
3.9%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Elgin is 0.14 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Elgin is 0.22 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Elgin is 0.14 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 3.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.2
11.2
4.2
4.5
3.9
22.3
22.4
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
10.7
10.5
11.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
21.9
21.4
22.3
vs Weaker (27)
9.7
8.2
11.4
4.3
4.8
3.7
22.6
23.1
22.0
% over line
46%
32%
60%
66%
80%
52%
54%
56%
52%
% under line
54%
68%
40%
34%
20%
48%
46%
44%
48%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.2
3.8
3.2
4.3
23.3
22.9
23.6
vs Stronger (29)
10.1
10.8
9.3
3.4
3.1
3.9
22.6
22.3
22.9
vs Similar (21)
11.0
10.7
11.2
4.2
3.3
4.8
24.2
23.9
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
62%
46%
54%
38%
69%
62%
58%
65%
% under line
46%
38%
54%
46%
62%
31%
38%
42%
35%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.6
Stirling
10.4
Elgin
10.2
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Kelty Hearts
10.0
Cowdenbeath
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.7
Stranraer
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Annan Athletic
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Stirling
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.7
Stranraer
3.5
Forfar
3.1
Albion Rvs
3.1
Kelty Hearts
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.4
Cowdenbeath
23.7
Stirling
23.3
Stranraer
22.6
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Elgin
22.3
Albion Rvs
22.1
Forfar
22.0
Edinburgh City
22.0
Kelty Hearts
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.7%
Under 9.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.0%
Under 3.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.2%
Under 21.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.44
1.00
0.56
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.27
0.47
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.60
0.22
0.56
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.40
0.33
0.33
1.22
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
1.07
0.80
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.00
1.67
1.17
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.61
0.67
0.56
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
0.40
1.11
0.44
1.17
0.33
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.67
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →