Elgin are the favoured side, with a 47% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a Stirling win. The model expects three goals on average, but the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.2% chance. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded, while Stirling, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 84.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.5% and Under 25.5 fouls at 71.7%. Both teams have recently drawn their last matches, with Elgin 3-3 against Spartans and Stirling 2-2 against Stranraer.
Results analysis
Elgin’s recent run of DWDWL had them hoping to extend a win streak, but the visit to Stirling ended in a 0-2 away victory, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, Home win, wrong. The model had given the home side a 47% chance of triumph, yet the result was an Away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 84.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.5% and Under 25.5 fouls at 71.7%. Stirling’s form, coming off a draw, proved decisive, while Elgin’s 1.78 average goals per game fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win✗ Miss
47.1%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.90
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.45
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.70
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.23
1.65
1.35
0.77
1.08
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.00
1.71
0.86
1.14
1.14
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
1.33
1.78
1.56
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.67
1.81
1.44
1.36
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
1.56
1.61
1.80
1.50
1.25
1.75
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.80
2.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.92+8.1%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.82-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.4%
Elgin goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.4%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.8%
12%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.5%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.3%
5.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Elgin is 0.19 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Elgin is 0.06 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Elgin is 0.44 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 4.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 4.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 0.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 8.3 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.1
8.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
24.1
22.9
25.2
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
8.9
9.1
8.8
3.8
3.5
4.2
24.2
21.7
26.9
vs Weaker (25)
9.0
9.2
8.8
4.5
4.7
4.3
24.0
24.0
24.0
% over line
44%
43%
45%
58%
58%
58%
63%
52%
73%
% under line
56%
57%
55%
42%
42%
42%
37%
48%
27%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.7
9.7
3.6
3.7
3.5
21.5
21.0
22.0
vs Stronger (31)
10.2
10.3
10.1
3.7
3.9
3.5
21.1
20.4
22.1
vs Similar (16)
10.2
11.0
9.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.4
22.0
22.7
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
13.0
8.5
3.7
3.0
4.0
20.0
23.0
18.5
% over line
64%
83%
43%
52%
50%
54%
48%
43%
52%
% under line
36%
17%
57%
48%
50%
46%
52%
57%
48%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.3
East Fife
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Forfar
9.6
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.3
Stranraer
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
9.1
Peterhead
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Forfar
4.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Edinburgh City
4.4
Stranraer
4.1
Clyde
4.1
Stirling
4.0
East Fife
3.9
Spartans
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.7
Forfar
24.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.3
Elgin
24.3
Edinburgh City
23.7
East Fife
22.9
Clyde
22.5
Spartans
21.9
Stirling
21.0
Stranraer
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.3%
Under 9.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.4%
Under 3.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.1%
Under 21.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.76
0.53
0.38
0.46
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.57
0.14
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.78
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
1.06
0.75
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
0.67
1.20
0.70
0.75
0.62
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.88
0.82
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.64
1.14
0.71
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.73
0.78
0.78
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.75
0.69
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.56
0.94
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.12
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer
Forfar