Elgin are tipped to win, with a 45% chance of taking the points against Stirling, who face a 29% chance of triumph and a 26% chance of a draw. The match is expected to see about three goals, but the most probable total is two, a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% probability. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Stirling, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 88.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 81.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 75.7%, and Under 11.5 corners at 72.1%. Elgin’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, and Stirling’s recent loss to Elgin, 0-4, set the tone for a competitive fixture.
Results analysis
Elgin’s unbeaten run in their last five matches, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, set the stage for a decisive home victory. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 45% probability, proved correct as Elgin triumphed 3-0. The expected total of three goals materialised, with the most likely scoreline of 2-1 falling short. The model’s selections largely hit: Over 2.5 cards (88.8% chance) and Over 1.5 goals (81.6%) both came through, as did Over 19.5 fouls (81.6%) and Over 3.5 cards (75.7%). Only the Under 11.5 corners (72.1%) missed, underscoring the match’s high-card, high-foul nature.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win✓ Hit
44.7%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.84
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.55
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.56
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.70
1.33
1.60
0.53
1.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.92
1.50
1.50
0.60
2.60
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
1.44
1.33
1.50
0.50
1.40
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.67
1.47
1.53
1.20
1.80
vs Stronger (15)
1.33
1.67
1.38
1.88
1.29
1.43
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.46
1.67
0.67
1.29
2.14
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.65+2.6%
Under 2.5
41.7%
@ 2.08-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
Elgin goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.4%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
1
7.1%
12%
7.3%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.3%
6.2%
2.8%
0.9%
3
3.9%
5.2%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Elgin is 0.17 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Elgin is 0.14 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Elgin is 0.22 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 6.6 · Against 5.6 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 9.9 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.8
10.1
4.1
4.5
3.8
24.2
22.8
25.6
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
9.6
10.0
9.2
3.7
3.9
3.5
23.6
23.0
24.4
vs Weaker (26)
10.2
9.7
10.6
4.7
5.4
4.0
24.6
22.5
26.3
% over line
59%
55%
62%
64%
72%
56%
66%
50%
81%
% under line
41%
45%
38%
36%
28%
44%
34%
50%
19%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.1
9.4
3.6
4.0
3.3
21.9
21.2
22.6
vs Stronger (27)
10.3
10.2
10.4
3.5
4.0
2.9
21.6
20.6
22.7
vs Similar (19)
10.1
11.8
8.4
3.6
3.7
3.6
22.7
21.9
23.5
vs Weaker (4)
11.0
13.5
8.5
4.8
5.5
4.0
20.0
21.5
18.5
% over line
61%
81%
40%
54%
56%
52%
49%
43%
55%
% under line
39%
19%
60%
46%
44%
48%
51%
57%
45%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.6
Dumbarton
10.9
Stirling
10.2
Clyde
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.8
Elgin
9.6
Forfar
9.3
Stranraer
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.1
Spartans
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.8
Elgin
4.8
Edinburgh City
4.7
Forfar
4.7
Stirling
4.4
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.1
Spartans
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.8
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.6
Forfar
25.2
Elgin
24.4
Edinburgh City
24.2
Clyde
22.9
Spartans
21.9
Stirling
21.7
Stranraer
20.7
Annan Athletic
20.2
Dumbarton
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.7%
Under 3.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.1%
Under 21.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.80
0.73
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.92
0.88
0.75
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.56
0.83
0.67
0.20
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
0.93
0.88
1.12
0.86
0.71
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.69
0.33
0.33
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.97
0.53
0.87
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
1.00
0.62
0.75
0.20
1.40
vs Weaker (16)
0.38
0.88
0.50
0.83
0.30
0.90
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.87
0.67
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.77
1.33
0.33
0.71
1.14
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City