Elgin’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, sets a high-scoring tone, but the model still favours an away win. The probability split shows 36% for a home win, 24% for a draw and 40% for an away win, making Stirling the most likely victor. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively encounter, with the most probable total of three goals at 22%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 10.4% chance. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Stirling, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 scored and 2.17 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 86.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.7%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.3%. Each selection carries its own probability, reflecting the match’s expected intensity.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Elgin snatched a 1-0 victory, breaking the pre-match favourite’s run. The model had tipped an away win with a 40% chance, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 1-0 gave Elgin the win, leaving the model’s pick incorrect. The model’s other selections fared mixed: Over 1.5 goals at 86.7% missed, Over 2.5 cards at 81.9% hit, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.9% hit, Over 8.5 corners at 74.7% missed, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.3% hit. Elgin’s unbeaten run in the last five, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Stirling, was the story, while Stirling’s recent loss to Elgin underscored the surprise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win✓ Hit
35.6%
Avg Implied 53.3% · @ 1.69
Edge
-17.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.69
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.05
Edge
+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.17
1.69
2.25
1.14
2.07
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.09
3.45
1.50
3.25
0.00
4.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.56
1.44
1.88
1.25
1.30
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
0.79
2.00
1.50
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
2.17
0.83
2.17
1.33
2.17
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.33
0.67
1.33
1.56
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.67
1.00
3.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.8%
@ 1.60+9.8%
Under 2.5
33.2%
@ 2.12-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.0%
1-3
5.0%
0-1
4.7%
2-0
4.4%
Elgin goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.7%
5.0%
3.0%
1.3%
1
4.4%
10%
8.4%
5.0%
2.2%
2
4.4%
7.9%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.5%
4.4%
3.9%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Elgin is 0.17 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Elgin is 0.14 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Elgin is 0.22 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 4.9 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 8.6 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 8.6 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.5
10.9
3.8
4.1
3.3
22.4
21.8
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
9.4
10.2
8.2
3.4
3.6
2.9
21.6
21.4
21.8
vs Weaker (28)
11.4
10.7
12.1
4.3
4.9
3.8
22.8
22.0
23.5
% over line
66%
62%
70%
52%
63%
39%
59%
48%
70%
% under line
34%
38%
30%
48%
37%
61%
41%
52%
30%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.9
10.7
3.7
3.6
3.7
21.1
20.2
22.0
vs Stronger (23)
11.3
11.0
11.7
3.7
3.4
3.9
21.6
20.2
23.0
vs Similar (22)
10.9
11.4
10.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
21.0
20.9
21.2
vs Weaker (5)
8.6
9.0
8.0
4.2
4.7
3.5
19.4
18.0
21.5
% over line
61%
68%
55%
52%
50%
54%
43%
36%
50%
% under line
39%
32%
45%
48%
50%
46%
57%
64%
50%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.1
Stirling
10.9
Elgin
10.6
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.6
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.4
Forfar
9.3
Spartans
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.8
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.9
Elgin
4.8
Clyde
4.5
Stranraer
4.3
Spartans
4.3
Stirling
4.2
Annan Athletic
3.9
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.0
Forfar
24.8
Edinburgh City
24.4
Elgin
23.1
Clyde
22.0
Stranraer
21.7
Annan Athletic
21.6
Stirling
21.3
Spartans
20.7
Dumbarton
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.4%
Under 9.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.7%
Under 3.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.2%
Under 21.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.00
0.56
1.00
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
1.64
0.75
1.38
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.33
0.61
0.38
0.62
0.30
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.21
1.14
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.00
0.17
1.33
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.73
0.33
0.67
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
1.12
1.25
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
1.82
0.75
1.88
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.22
0.83
1.50
0.62
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.57
0.86
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.17
0.67
0.83
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.60
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City