Elgin’s recent unbeaten run and the fact that they have been scoring more than they concede at home against weaker opposition gives the match a fine balance, yet the model still favours a home win. The probabilities are 41% for Elgin, 27% for a draw and 33% for Stranraer, making the home side the most likely victor. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12.6%. Elgin averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded at home, while Stranraer, playing away against a stronger side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 80.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.0% and Under 11.5 corners at 71.0%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the home win remains the single most likely outcome.
Results analysis
Elgin finished 0-1 against Stranraer (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 27% draw and 33% away win. Picks that landed: Over 2.5 cards (79%), Under 25.5 fouls (78%), Under 11.5 corners (71%). Missed: Over 1.5 (80%), Under 5.5 cards (75%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elgin win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied 40.0% · @ 2.29
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.34
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.81
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.53
1.25
1.50
1.57
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.40
1.00
1.43
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
1.60
1.44
1.56
1.64
1.64
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.67
1.47
1.60
1.33
1.73
vs Stronger (20)
1.65
1.65
1.36
1.73
2.00
1.56
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.70
1.75
1.25
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.69+1.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
@ 2.06-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.2%
0-0
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
0-1 ✓
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
Elgin goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.2%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.2%
13%
7.8%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.5%
8.9%
6.1%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.4%
4.6%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elgin goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin is 0.14 points worse than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Elgin is 0.03 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Elgin is 0.14 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Elgin
For 3.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 4.4 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 9.2 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.6
8.8
4.2
4.2
4.3
22.6
22.8
22.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
8.8
9.2
8.0
3.9
3.7
4.2
23.1
23.0
23.3
vs Weaker (34)
8.6
8.2
9.1
4.4
4.4
4.4
22.3
22.8
21.9
% over line
34%
27%
42%
58%
62%
54%
59%
58%
61%
% under line
66%
73%
58%
42%
38%
46%
41%
42%
39%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.9
10.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
21.4
21.7
21.1
vs Stronger (37)
9.1
9.1
9.2
4.6
4.4
4.9
21.5
21.3
21.7
vs Similar (13)
10.3
8.3
12.0
3.2
4.5
2.1
21.2
23.2
19.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
48%
44%
58%
60%
56%
52%
60%
44%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
42%
40%
44%
48%
40%
56%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.2
Forfar
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.6
Stranraer
9.4
Albion Rvs
9.3
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
8.9
Elgin
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Albion Rvs
3.9
East Fife
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.6
Albion Rvs
22.2
Stirling
22.1
Forfar
21.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.5
Stranraer
21.4
Stenhousemuir
21.1
East Fife
20.8
Annan Athletic
20.8
Dumbarton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.7%
Under 9.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.8%
Under 3.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.1%
Under 21.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.62
0.69
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.14
0.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.55
1.00
0.67
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.80
0.60
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
0.85
0.90
0.82
0.73
0.89
1.11
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.70
0.75
0.25
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.62
0.81
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.80
0.86
0.71
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
1.05
0.44
0.89
0.82
1.18
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (20)
0.80
0.75
0.55
1.00
1.11
0.44
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Dumbarton
Annan Athletic
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir