Elgin vs Stranraer Result & Analysis

Elgin are tipped to win, with the model favouring a home victory at 43%. The expected goal tally sits at 2.5, and the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, a 13.9% chance. Elgin’s home form shows they score 1.18 goals and concede 1.36 against weaker opposition, while Stranraer, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. The draw probability is 29%, and the away win probability 28%. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 85.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.9%, Under 3.5 at 75.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.3%, Under 23.5 fouls at 74.0%, and Over 1.5 at 72.5%. The remaining picks, Over 2.5 cards and Under 5.5 cards, are less likely. Elgin’s recent unbeaten run and a 4-0 win over Stirling give them confidence, while Stranraer’s 2-0 victory over Kelty Hearts shows they can snatch a win on the road.

The upset came early as Stranraer snatched a 1-0 win over Elgin, ending the home side’s unbeaten run of five games. The pre-match favourite was the home win, given a 43% chance, but the model’s call proved wrong. The match’s final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away victory. Among the model’s selections, Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Under 3.5 and Under 11.5 corners, each with probabilities of 78.9%, 75.8% and 74.3% respectively. The remaining picks - Under 25.5 fouls, Over 2.5 cards, Under 23.5 fouls and Over 1.5 - missed, with odds of 85.5%, 75.8%, 74.0% and 72.5% respectively.