Elgin vs Stranraer Result & Analysis

Elgin are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win at 48 %. The match is expected to be a moderate affair, with an average of 2.9 goals and a most likely total of two, a 24 % chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3 % probability. Elgin, playing at home against a weaker side, have been scoring 1.73 goals per game while conceding only 0.82, whereas Stranraer, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 82.2 %, Over 1.5 at 79.8 % (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 79.5 %, Under 5.5 cards at 74.6 % and Over 8.5 corners at 71.4 %. The draw probability sits at 26 % and the away win at 25 %. Elgin’s recent form shows a draw streak, while Stranraer also come off a draw, suggesting both sides are eager to break the deadlock.

Elgin’s home form, now a draw after a 3-3 stalemate with Spartans, had been described as “coming off a draw,” yet the match ended in a 0-1 away victory for Stranraer, who were also “coming off a draw” after a 2-2 tie with Stirling. The pre-match favourite was the model’s Home win call, given a 48 % probability, but the result was an Away win, so the model’s pick was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.8 % probability, which missed as the game saw just one goal. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the upset.