PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Elva vs FC Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 09/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Elva
Elva
Vs
66%
19%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Elva win✗ Miss
65.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win✗ Miss
15.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-614L11D10W31W03L10W21W26L15L02LA·VII24/10H·FLO29/10A·TUL05/11H·FCI13/11H·LEG23/11A·LEG27/11H·FLO04/03A·PAI09/03A·FCI13/03A·VII19/03← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.503.141.071.251.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.901.862.891.111.172.42
vs Weaker (9)2.670.673.601.001.500.25
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L01L32W13LA·LEG05/03A·FLO12/03H·PAI18/03H·NÕM02/04
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.252.002.501.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.332.002.002.500.001.00
vs Weaker (1)2.003.00--2.003.00
Clean sheet %0% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.2%
Under 1.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.7%
Under 2.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.5%
No
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%
3-1
7.8%
1-1 ✓
7.7%
2-0
7.3%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.6%
4-1
5.1%
1-0
4.9%
Elva goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
02.9%2.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%
14.9%7.7%4.3%1.8%0.6%
27.3%9.0%5.6%2.3%0.7%
36.3%7.8%4.9%2.0%0.6%
44.1%5.1%3.1%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
Elva is 0.34 points worse than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Elva is 0.79 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
Elva is 0.19 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D10W11D03L00D10W03L03L01LA·VII24/10H·FLO29/10A·TUL05/11H·FCI13/11H·LEG23/11A·LEG27/11H·FLO04/03A·PAI09/03A·FCI13/03A·VII19/03← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.731.570.570.380.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.670.811.220.440.251.08
vs Weaker (9)1.560.562.200.800.750.25
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D11DA·LEG05/03A·FLO12/03H·PAI18/03H·NÕM02/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.750.500.501.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D00D20W00D10W11D23L12L01LA·VII24/10H·FLO29/10A·TUL05/11H·FCI13/11H·LEG23/11A·LEG27/11H·FLO04/03A·PAI09/03A·FCI13/03A·VII19/03← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.771.570.500.881.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.241.051.670.670.921.33
vs Weaker (9)1.110.111.400.200.750.00
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D32W02LA·LEG05/03A·FLO12/03H·PAI18/03H·NÕM02/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.501.502.000.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.001.331.502.000.000.00
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %25% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.573.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ELV wins
0
Draws
0
FT wins

Head-to-head

Elva vs FC Tallinn · H/A from ELV
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/03/23AViimsi Vs ELV2-0
13/03/23AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV5-1
09/03/23APaide II Vs ELV6-2
04/03/23HELV Vs Flora II2-1
27/11/22ALegion Vs ELV0-1
23/11/22HELV Vs Legion0-3
13/11/22HELV Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
05/11/22ATulevik Vs ELV0-1
29/10/22HELV Vs Flora II1-1
24/10/22AViimsi Vs ELV4-1

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/23HFT Vs Nõmme United1-3
18/03/23HFT Vs Paide II3-2
12/03/23AFlora II Vs FT1-0
05/03/23ALegion Vs FT3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.71
HomeWDWLW2.10
AwayWWLLL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%65%41%
AVG goals3.604.053.18
Over 1.5 %81%90%73%
Over 2.5 %55%70%41%
Over 3.5 %43%50%36%
Scored1.952.751.23
Conceded1.641.301.95
BTTS60%65%55%
Clean Sheet29%30%27%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWL0.75
HomeWL1.50
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%50%0%
AVG goals3.754.503.00
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %75%100%50%
Over 3.5 %75%100%50%
Scored1.502.001.00
Conceded2.252.502.00
BTTS75%100%50%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3690
78%
2.5
11429+85
4.0
89%
78%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.20.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3671
58%
2.0
6735+32
2.8
69%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Flora IIFlora II3669
61%
1.9
8653+33
3.9
86%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.5
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3657
44%
1.6
5746+11
2.9
81%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3655
50%
1.5
8170+11
4.2
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.9
-
6FC TallinnFC Tallinn3652
44%
1.4
7265+7
3.8
86%
78%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
7ElvaElva3842
32%
1.1
4676-30
3.2
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8Paide IIPaide II3641
33%
1.1
6682-16
4.1
78%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
9LegionLegion3621
14%
0.6
3797-60
3.7
83%
75%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
10K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3620
17%
0.6
50123-73
4.8
92%
86%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
11Tartu KalevTartu Kalev22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches