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Elva vs FC Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 06/10/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 0-1
Elva
Elva
Vs
38%
27%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elva win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win✓ Hit
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W43W12L31W00D21W31W43W02L01LH·FCI03/08A·FC 10/08A·VII17/08H·PAI20/08A·TAR24/08H·LAA31/08H·JK 15/09A·PAI19/09A·FLO22/09H·TAR28/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.871.671.471.072.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.371.871.671.471.072.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D12L34L01L13L04L01L12L31W11DH·TAL27/07A·LAA03/08H·ELV10/08A·JK 17/08H·TAR20/08A·FLO24/08A·VII31/08H·FCI15/09H·JK 24/09H·FLO28/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.572.501.751.501.36
vs Stronger (4)1.251.500.002.001.671.33
vs Similar (26)2.151.582.671.731.451.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
0-1 ✓
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
Elva goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
06.7%6.7%5.5%2.6%0.9%
17.1%13%8.1%3.8%1.3%
26.1%8.6%6.0%2.8%1.0%
33.0%4.3%3.0%1.4%0.5%
41.1%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Elva is 0.24 points worse than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.47).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Elva is 0.39 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Elva is 0.13 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.50).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W23L10W11D00D00D10W13L00D01LH·FCI03/08A·FC 10/08A·VII17/08H·PAI20/08A·TAR24/08H·LAA31/08H·JK 15/09A·PAI19/09A·FLO22/09H·TAR28/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.900.600.670.471.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.900.600.670.471.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L32W00D11D01L01L00D21W01LH·TAL27/07A·LAA03/08H·ELV10/08A·JK 17/08H·TAR20/08A·FLO24/08A·VII31/08H·FCI15/09H·JK 24/09H·FLO28/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.601.380.880.430.29
vs Stronger (4)0.500.500.001.000.670.33
vs Similar (26)1.000.621.470.870.360.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W02L20W00D21W21W30W02L00DH·FCI03/08A·FC 10/08A·VII17/08H·PAI20/08A·TAR24/08H·LAA31/08H·JK 15/09A·PAI19/09A·FLO22/09H·TAR28/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.971.070.800.601.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.830.971.070.800.601.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D02L01L02L03L00D12L10W10WH·TAL27/07A·LAA03/08H·ELV10/08A·JK 17/08H·TAR20/08A·FLO24/08A·VII31/08H·FCI15/09H·JK 24/09H·FLO28/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.971.120.881.071.07
vs Stronger (4)0.751.000.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (26)1.150.961.200.871.091.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
ELV wins
1
Draws
3
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elva vs FC Tallinn · H/A from ELV
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs ELV3-4
30/05/24AFC Tallinn Vs ELV4-0
04/05/24HELV Vs FC Tallinn2-3
08/10/23AFC Tallinn Vs ELV1-2
05/08/23HELV Vs FC Tallinn4-3
10/06/23AFC Tallinn Vs ELV3-1
09/04/23HELV Vs FC Tallinn1-1

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24HELV Vs Tartu Welco0-1
22/09/24AFlora II Vs ELV2-0
19/09/24APaide II Vs ELV3-4
15/09/24HELV Vs JK Tabasalu3-1
31/08/24HELV Vs Laagri2-1
24/08/24ATartu Welco Vs ELV0-0
20/08/24HELV Vs Paide II3-1
17/08/24AViimsi Vs ELV2-1
10/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs ELV3-4
03/08/24HELV Vs FCI Levadia II2-0

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24HFT Vs Flora II1-1
24/09/24HFT Vs JK Tabasalu3-1
15/09/24HFT Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
31/08/24AViimsi Vs FT1-0
24/08/24AFlora II Vs FT4-0
20/08/24HFT Vs Tartu Welco1-3
17/08/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FT1-0
10/08/24HFT Vs Elva3-4
03/08/24ALaagri Vs FT2-1
27/07/24HFT Vs Tallinna Kalev II2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.22
HomeWWWWL1.48
AwayWLDWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals3.143.043.24
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored1.261.521.00
Conceded1.881.522.24
BTTS46%52%40%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.42
HomeLLLWD1.30
AwayWLLLL1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%37%48%
AVG goals3.764.073.39
Over 1.5 %86%96%74%
Over 2.5 %74%78%70%
Over 3.5 %54%56%52%
Scored2.042.261.78
Conceded1.721.811.61
BTTS66%74%57%
Clean Sheet14%11%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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