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Elva vs FC Tallinn Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 13:00
Elva
Elva
Vs
41%
28%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours a home win for Elva, with a 43 % chance of victory, a 28 % chance of a draw and a 30 % chance of an away win. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2 % chance. Elva, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded, while FC Tallinn, on the road, averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3 %), Under 5.5 (94.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (87.2 %), Home +2 handicap (87.0 %) and Under 4.5 (85.6 %). Elva’s recent form shows a draw after a 0-0 stalemate with Flora II, while FC Tallinn comes off a 1-2 loss to FCI Levadia II. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with both sides likely to keep the goal tally below three.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Elva win
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W31W60W22D21W30W01L10W00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.131.431.002.061.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.751.251.331.002.171.50
vs Weaker (6)1.830.672.001.001.750.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L20W41W10W11D01L11D12L02L21WH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.971.601.801.802.13
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (26)1.581.961.211.862.002.08
vs Weaker (3)3.332.337.001.001.503.00
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.4%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.6%
Elva goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
07.8%7.0%5.2%2.2%0.7%
18.4%13%7.6%3.2%1.0%
27.1%8.9%5.6%2.3%0.7%
33.5%4.4%2.7%1.1%0.4%
41.3%1.6%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Elva is 0.78 points better than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Elva is 0.67 goals better than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Elva is 0.44 goals better than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elva or Draw
68.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Elva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva or FC Tallinn
72.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Elva + FC Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Tallinn
59.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + FC Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elva over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Elva, so a minus line means Elva give that many goals of a start and FC Tallinn receive them. At -1, Elva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elva)
Elva -2
7.9%
Draw -2
12.6%
FC Tallinn +2
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elva)
Elva -1
20.5%
Draw -1
20.5%
FC Tallinn +1
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Elva)
Elva +1
68.9%
Draw +1
17.3%
FC Tallinn -1
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elva)
Elva +2
86.3%
Draw +2
9.1%
FC Tallinn -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W20W00D20W00D01L00D00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.430.430.690.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.500.500.330.420.670.58
vs Weaker (6)0.830.501.000.500.750.50
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W00D00D11D01L11D11D01L01LH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.401.070.670.93
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.461.040.291.070.671.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.672.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D40W22D01L30W00D10W00D00DA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.631.000.571.380.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.250.751.000.581.500.92
vs Weaker (6)1.000.171.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D41W10W00D00D00D01L01L20WH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.971.200.731.131.20
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (26)1.120.920.930.791.331.08
vs Weaker (3)2.001.675.000.000.502.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.3%-------
Under 6.597.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.1%-------
Under 5.594.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.8%-------
Home +2 handicap86.3%-------
Under 4.586.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals81.6%-------
Away +2 handicap79.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.0%-------
Over 1.576.8%-------
Home or Away72.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals71.4%-------
Under 3.570.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ELV wins
2
Draws
2
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elva vs FC Tallinn · H/A from ELV
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26AFC Tallinn Vs ELV0-3
19/10/25HELV Vs FC Tallinn1-0
16/08/25AFC Tallinn Vs ELV1-2
22/05/25HELV Vs FC Tallinn1-1
24/04/25AFC Tallinn Vs ELV1-1
06/10/24HELV Vs FC Tallinn0-1
10/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs ELV3-4
30/05/24AFC Tallinn Vs ELV4-0

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ANõmme United II Vs ELV0-1
24/08/26HELV Vs Flora II0-0
20/08/26HELV Vs Maardu1-0
15/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs ELV1-0
12/08/26HELV Vs Joker3-0
08/08/26HELV Vs Tartu Welco2-1
01/08/26AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV2-2
22/07/26ALäänemaa Haapsalu Vs ELV0-6
16/07/26AViimsi Vs ELV1-3
11/07/26AFC Tallinn Vs ELV0-3

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AViimsi Vs FT1-2
29/08/26HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-2
23/08/26AFCI Levadia II Vs FT2-1
20/08/26HFT Vs Nõmme United II1-1
15/08/26AMaardu Vs FT1-0
08/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs FT1-1
01/08/26HFT Vs Flora II1-0
28/07/26HFT Vs Tallinna FC Zapoos4-1
18/07/26ATartu Welco Vs FT0-2
11/07/26HFT Vs Elva0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.80
HomeWWWWD1.84
AwayWWDLW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.223.003.44
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.861.682.04
Conceded1.361.321.40
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.24
HomeLWWDL1.25
AwayWDLLW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals3.683.294.04
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %46%38%54%
Scored1.801.711.88
Conceded1.881.582.15
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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