PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Elva vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 13/11/2022
Time: 10:30
Final 3-1
Elva
Elva
Vs
45%
24%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Elva winâś“ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II winâś— Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-941W21W31W91W01L02L32W14L11D10WA·FLO01/09H·VII04/09A·K-J12/09H·PAI17/09A·LAA01/10A·NĂ•M08/10H·PĂ„R17/10A·VII24/10H·FLO29/10A·TUL05/11
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.533.211.211.251.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.802.052.561.561.182.45
vs Weaker (10)2.900.504.400.601.400.40
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L03L01L32W12L30W20W40W50W21WA·LAA01/09H·FLO05/09A·VII10/09H·TUL17/09A·PĂ„R03/10H·LAA09/10A·NĂ•M16/10H·K-J22/10H·PAI31/10A·FLO06/11
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.501.032.651.292.310.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)2.371.162.451.452.250.75
vs Weaker (11)2.730.823.001.002.400.60
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.5%
Under 2.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.9%
Under 3.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.4%
No
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.6%
3-1 âś“
5.6%
1-0
5.0%
3-2
4.4%
Elva goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
04.0%3.9%3.8%2.0%0.8%
15.0%10%7.2%3.8%1.5%
25.6%8.8%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.6%5.6%4.4%2.3%0.9%
41.7%2.7%2.1%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.11
FCI Levadia II
1.89
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.75
Flora II
1.72
Nõmme United
1.67
Paide II
1.44
K-Järve JK Järve
0.82
Tulevik
0.64
Pärnu
0.56
Tallinna Kalev II
0.50
Elva is 0.06 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
2.69
Flora II
2.44
FCI Levadia II
2.36
Nõmme United
2.19
Elva
2.11
Viimsi
2.11
Paide II
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
K-Järve JK Järve
0.87
Pärnu
0.83
Tulevik
0.78
Elva is 0.25 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 2.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
1.11
FCI Levadia II
1.25
Laagri
1.28
Elva
1.44
Flora II
1.44
Nõmme United
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Pärnu
2.14
Paide II
2.44
Tulevik
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
2.84
Elva is 0.19 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L10W21W51W00D01L11D12L00D10WA·FLO01/09H·VII04/09A·K-J12/09H·PAI17/09A·LAA01/10A·NĂ•M08/10H·PĂ„R17/10A·VII24/10H·FLO29/10A·TUL05/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.571.570.430.500.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.600.751.000.560.270.91
vs Weaker (10)1.800.202.600.201.000.20
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D01L32W10W20W10W20W10W21WA·LAA01/09H·FLO05/09A·VII10/09H·TUL17/09A·PĂ„R03/10H·LAA09/10A·NĂ•M16/10H·K-J22/10H·PAI31/10A·FLO06/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.431.180.471.080.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.950.530.910.451.000.62
vs Weaker (11)1.450.271.670.501.200.00
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D10W40W01L01L21W02L11D00DA·FLO01/09H·VII04/09A·K-J12/09H·PAI17/09A·LAA01/10A·NĂ•M08/10H·PĂ„R17/10A·VII24/10H·FLO29/10A·TUL05/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.971.640.790.751.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.201.301.561.000.911.55
vs Weaker (10)1.100.301.800.400.400.20
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D03L00D00D02L10W10W20W40W00DA·LAA01/09H·FLO05/09A·VII10/09H·TUL17/09A·PĂ„R03/10H·LAA09/10A·NĂ•M16/10H·K-J22/10H·PAI31/10A·FLO06/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.601.470.821.230.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.420.631.551.001.250.12
vs Weaker (11)1.270.551.330.501.200.60
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
ELV wins
1
Draws
2
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elva vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from ELV
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/22AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV1-1
08/05/22AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV3-1
03/03/22HELV Vs FCI Levadia II3-4

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/22ATulevik Vs ELV0-1
29/10/22HELV Vs Flora II1-1
24/10/22AViimsi Vs ELV4-1
17/10/22HELV Vs Pärnu3-2
08/10/22ANõmme United Vs ELV2-0
01/10/22ALaagri Vs ELV1-0
17/09/22HELV Vs Paide II9-1
12/09/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs ELV1-3
04/09/22HELV Vs Viimsi2-1
01/09/22AFlora II Vs ELV1-4

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22AFlora II Vs FLI1-2
31/10/22HFLI Vs Paide II5-0
22/10/22HFLI Vs K-Järve JK Järve4-0
16/10/22ANõmme United Vs FLI0-2
09/10/22HFLI Vs Laagri3-0
03/10/22APärnu Vs FLI2-1
17/09/22HFLI Vs Tulevik3-2
10/09/22AViimsi Vs FLI1-0
05/09/22HFLI Vs Flora II0-3
01/09/22ALaagri Vs FLI1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.80
HomeWWWWD2.12
AwayWLLLW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%65%44%
AVG goals3.544.182.94
Over 1.5 %80%88%72%
Over 2.5 %51%65%39%
Over 3.5 %43%53%33%
Scored2.092.941.28
Conceded1.461.241.67
BTTS60%65%56%
Clean Sheet31%35%28%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.94
HomeLWWWW2.11
AwayLLLWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%67%53%
AVG goals3.603.893.29
Over 1.5 %94%100%88%
Over 2.5 %71%83%59%
Over 3.5 %46%50%41%
Scored2.402.672.12
Conceded1.201.221.18
BTTS60%67%53%
Clean Sheet29%28%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3676
67%
2.1
9746+51
4.0
81%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.71.3
-
2FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3668
58%
1.9
8545+40
3.6
94%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.2
-
3ElvaElva3666
56%
1.8
7652+24
3.6
81%
53%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4ViimsiViimsi3663
56%
1.8
7640+36
3.2
75%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II3662
53%
1.7
8852+36
3.9
89%
78%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
6Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3660
50%
1.7
7956+23
3.8
94%
64%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.21.6
-
7Paide IIPaide II3652
47%
1.4
7588-13
4.5
100%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.4
-
8K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3831
24%
0.8
33108-75
3.7
84%
76%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.8
-
9TulevikTulevik3623
17%
0.6
28102-74
3.6
86%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
10PärnuPärnu3620
11%
0.6
3077-47
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches