This match between Elva and Maardu in the Estonia: Esiliiga A league on August 20th is shaping up to be an open and attacking affair. Elva has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 2-1 win over Tartu Welco, but their home form has been somewhat inconsistent with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents. Maardu, on the other hand, has been coming off a defeat, but their away form has been impressive, scoring an average of 4 goals and conceding just 1 against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a 45% chance of an away win, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 9.9%. The expected total goals is 3.5, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 with a 87.7% probability. The home win percentage is 31%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 45%. The model's selection for the match result is the Away win.
Results analysis
The upset came as Elva edged Maardu 1-0, a home win that snapped the pre-match favourite’s run. The model had tipped an away win with a 45 % probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The final score of 1-0 gave Elva the victory, while the model’s selection missed. Every suggested pick was settled: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.3 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.1 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 88.5 %, Over 1.5 missed at 87.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 86.8 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals hit at 86.8 %, and Under 2.5 HT goals hit at 86.7 %. The match ended with Elva’s win, overturning the model’s expectation.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elva win✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied 46.1% · @ 1.95
Edge
-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Dafabet
1.97
BetVictor
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.77
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.10
Betfair
3.90
Betano
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Maardu win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied 30.1% · @ 2.99
Edge
+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.24
BetVictor
3.10
Superbet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.33
1.50
1.29
2.00
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.46
1.36
1.36
2.00
1.54
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
0.83
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maardu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
2.33
1.50
3.00
3.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.00
3.25
1.67
4.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.7%
@ 1.10+3.8%
Under 1.5
12.3%
@ 5.73-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Under
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.6%
@ 1.36+1.3%
Under 2.5
31.4%
@ 2.80-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
2.88
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
@ 1.94-0.2%
Under 3.5
52.9%
@ 1.75+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.95
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
BetVictor
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.2%
@ 1.39+2.4%
No
30.8%
@ 2.79-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
No
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Superbet
2.77
1xBet
2.69
William Hil
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%@ 7.67+4.4%
1-2
8.7%@ 10.42+4.7%
2-1
7.2%@ 8.42+2.2%
2-2
7.0%@ 9.92+2.7%
1-3
5.6%@ 18.50+3.4%
0-2
5.5%@ 18.00+3.1%
0-1
4.7%@ 14.67+1.8%
2-3
4.5%@ 18.33+2.2%
Elva goals ↓
Maardu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
4.7%
5.5%
3.5%
1.7%
1
3.8%
9.9%
8.7%
5.6%
2.7%
2
3.7%
7.2%
7.0%
4.5%
2.2%
3
2.0%
3.8%
3.7%
2.4%
1.2%
4
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Maardu goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Elva and Maardu are level in average points per game (both 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Elva is 0.67 goals worse than Maardu in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 2.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Elva is 1.22 goals better than Maardu in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elva or Draw✓ Hit
54.9%
Avg Implied 70.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
-15.3%
31%
24%
45%
covers Elva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Elva or Maardu✓ Hit
76.3%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.1%
31%
24%
45%
covers Elva + Maardu
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Draw or Maardu✗ Miss
68.7%
Avg Implied 53.5% · @ 1.71
Edge
+15.2%
31%
24%
45%
covers Draw + Maardu
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.73
BetVictor
1.73
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.8%
@ 1.09-3.9%
Under
20.2%
@ 5.58+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.15
Elva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.4%
@ 1.58-10.7%
Under
52.6%
@ 2.19+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Unibet
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.06
Elva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 2.67-12.5%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.38+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.77
Unibet
2.38
Under
Unibet
1.44
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Elva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
85.6%
@ 1.20+9.3%
Under
14.4%
@ 3.85-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Under
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Maardu over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
57.7%
@ 1.96+10.6%
Under
42.3%
@ 1.74-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
1.70
Under
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Maardu over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.7%
@ 4.25+9.3%
Under
69.3%
@ 1.16-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Maardu over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elva, so a minus line means Elva give that many goals of a start and Maardu receive them. At -1, Elva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elva)Actual: Maardu
Elva -2
6.1%
Draw -2
9.4%
Maardu +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elva)Actual: Draw
Elva -1
15.4%
@ 3.15-12.0%
Draw -1
15.8%
@ 3.88-6.4%
Maardu +1
68.7%
@ 1.72+18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.25
Unibet
2.80
Draw
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.55
Away
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.62
Handicap +1 (Elva)Actual: Elva
Elva +1
54.9%
@ 1.30-6.8%
Draw +1
19.4%
@ 4.10-0.2%
Maardu -1
25.7%
@ 4.30+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.30
Draw
Unibet
4.10
Away
Unibet
4.30
Handicap +2 (Elva)Actual: Elva
Elva +2
74.3%
Draw +2
13.8%
Maardu -2
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.58
0.36
0.55
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maardu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
1.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.50
1.33
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.7%
Under 0.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.7%
Under 1.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.00
0.79
1.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.21
0.88
1.00
0.82
1.38
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maardu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.17
0.25
1.50
3.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.75
0.33
2.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.7%
1.10
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
-
-
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.6%
1.20
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
-
-
-
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
-
-
-
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
1.38
Unibet
1.44
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
-
-
+12.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.3%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →