Elva are favoured to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 25% for a Nõmme Kalju II victory. The model expects 2.8 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 12.8%. Elva’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Nõmme Kalju II, playing away, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded to comparable teams. The match is projected to be low-scoring, reflected in the suggested picks: Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.8%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.4%) and Home under 3.5 goals (91.5%). Elva’s recent form, coming off a win, and Nõmme Kalju II’s recent win give both sides a chance, but the odds favour a home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elva win
48.6%
Avg Implied 59.2% · @ 1.52
Edge
-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.58
Dafabet
1.55
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.47
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.59
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
Nõmme Kalju II win
24.6%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.26
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.40
Unibet
4.35
1xBet
4.20
Dafabet
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.13
1.43
1.00
2.06
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.25
1.33
1.00
2.17
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.50
2.44
1.50
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
3.00
1.33
3.00
1.20
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.82
1.33
2.22
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
1.00
4.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.20-26.8%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 4.50+26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 1.41-32.4%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 2.33+32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.41
Under
Unibet
2.33
Both teams to score
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 10.00+6.8%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.00+2.1%
1-0
9.3%@ 15.00+5.3%
2-0
8.6%@ 12.00+3.6%
0-0
7.5%@ 41.00+6.0%
1-2
6.5%@ 14.00+2.2%
0-1
5.9%@ 26.00+3.6%
2-2
5.3%@ 9.50-0.9%
Elva goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
5.9%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.3%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.6%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.7%
5.2%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Elva is 1.50 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Elva is 0.66 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Elva is 1.92 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elva or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied 79.8% · @ 1.12
Edge
-4.4%
49%
27%
25%
covers Elva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Elva or Nõmme Kalju II
73.2%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.12
Edge
-6.9%
49%
27%
25%
covers Elva + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.10
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II
51.4%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.24
Edge
+11.3%
49%
27%
25%
covers Draw + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elva over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
@ 1.03-9.9%
Under
19.3%
@ 10.00+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.03
Under
Betfair
10.00
Elva over/under 1.5
Over
49.0%
@ 1.22-26.5%
Under
51.0%
@ 3.75+26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.75
Elva over/under 2.5
Over
22.9%
@ 1.76-28.8%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.89+28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.73
Under
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Elva over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
@ 3.20-20.4%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.30+20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
Under
Betfair
1.30
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
@ 1.17-12.2%
Under
32.8%
@ 4.50+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
@ 1.96-16.0%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.71+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.91
Under
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
@ 4.00-12.8%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.20+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betfair
1.20
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 9.50-7.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elva, so a minus line means Elva give that many goals of a start and Nõmme Kalju II receive them. At -1, Elva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elva)
Elva -2
11.2%
@ 3.00-15.4%
Draw -2
15.2%
@ 3.80-5.8%
Nõmme Kalju II +2
73.6%
@ 1.52+21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.00
Draw
Unibet
3.80
Away
Unibet
1.52
Handicap -1 (Elva)
Elva -1
26.4%
@ 2.08-14.1%
Draw -1
22.2%
@ 3.85+0.3%
Nõmme Kalju II +1
51.4%
@ 2.24+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
1.96
Draw
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
3.50
Away
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.18
Handicap +1 (Elva)
Elva +1
75.4%
Draw +1
14.7%
Nõmme Kalju II -1
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elva)
Elva +2
90.1%
Draw +2
7.0%
Nõmme Kalju II -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.42
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.81
0.75
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.27
0.50
0.83
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.89
0.78
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.11-12.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 6.00+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.4%
@ 1.59-21.0%
Under 1.5
63.6%
@ 2.15+21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.56
Under
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.10
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.1%
@ 3.00-16.7%
Under 2.5
85.9%
@ 1.33+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betfair
1.33
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.63
1.00
0.57
1.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.75
1.00
0.58
1.50
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.69
1.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.83
2.17
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.29
0.44
1.44
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.5%
Under 0.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.7%
Under 1.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.3%
Under 2.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.4%
Under
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-
-
-
-
+12.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.33
Betfair
1.33
-
-
-
-
+16.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
80.7%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-
-9.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.4%
1.12
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.11
-
-
-
-4.4%
Home +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
1.12
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.10
-
-
-
-6.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →