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Elva vs Paide II Result & Analysis

Date: 29/06/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-3
Elva
Elva
Vs
54%
19%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Elva winâś— Miss
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide II winâś“ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L30W21W30W23L12L02L12L13LA·JK 27/04H·VII01/05H·K-J06/05A·K-J10/05A·LEG13/05H·JK 21/05A·FLO25/05H·NĂ•M29/05H·FCI04/06A·FC 10/06
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.772.211.641.311.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.572.102.201.601.002.55
vs Weaker (9)2.111.002.251.752.000.40
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-733D02L05L20W71W01L24L01L22D02LA·FLO24/04A·VII27/04H·JK 01/05H·LEG06/05A·K-J14/05H·FLO20/05A·NĂ•M25/05H·FC 29/05H·VII04/06A·FCI12/06
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.732.831.442.442.073.29
vs Stronger (7)1.002.431.002.001.002.75
vs Similar (21)2.003.101.672.582.443.78
vs Weaker (2)1.501.500.002.003.001.00
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%16%25%33%1%03%111%216%319%417%533%6+
The model estimates around 4.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (33%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.3%
Under 1.5
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
84.7%
Under 2.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.9%
Under 3.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
80.8%
No
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
6.0%
1-1
5.4%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
4.3%
4-1
4.2%
Elva goals ↓
Paide II goals →
01234
01.4%1.3%1.8%1.1%0.6%
12.0%5.4%4.8%3.1%1.5%
23.4%6.7%6.6%4.3%2.1%
33.1%6.1%6.0%3.9%1.9%
42.1%4.2%4.1%2.7%1.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Paide II goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
Elva is 0.03 points worse than Paide II in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Elva is 0.62 goals worse than Paide II in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
Elva is 0.28 goals better than Paide II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D11D20W01L12L01L10W00DA·JK 27/04H·VII01/05H·K-J06/05A·K-J10/05A·LEG13/05H·JK 21/05A·FLO25/05H·NĂ•M29/05H·FCI04/06A·FC 10/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.860.790.561.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.620.951.000.600.271.27
vs Weaker (9)0.890.780.501.251.200.40
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L02L10W30W00D10W00D12L01LA·FLO24/04A·VII27/04H·JK 01/05H·LEG06/05A·K-J14/05H·FLO20/05A·NĂ•M25/05H·FC 29/05H·VII04/06A·FCI12/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.100.560.940.861.29
vs Stronger (7)0.571.290.331.000.751.50
vs Similar (21)0.761.050.670.920.891.22
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D30W10W10W22D00D01L02L13LA·JK 27/04H·VII01/05H·K-J06/05A·K-J10/05A·LEG13/05H·JK 21/05A·FLO25/05H·NĂ•M29/05H·FCI04/06A·FC 10/06
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.871.360.860.750.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.951.141.201.000.731.27
vs Weaker (9)1.220.221.750.500.800.00
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L00D03L10W41W01L14L01L10W01LA·FLO24/04A·VII27/04H·JK 01/05H·LEG06/05A·K-J14/05H·FLO20/05A·NĂ•M25/05H·FC 29/05H·VII04/06A·FCI12/06
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.730.881.501.212.00
vs Stronger (7)0.431.140.671.000.251.25
vs Similar (21)1.242.051.001.671.562.56
vs Weaker (2)1.000.500.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.595.3%-------âś“ Hit
Over 2.584.7%-------âś“ Hit
BTTS Yes80.8%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
ELV wins
0
Draws
3
PI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elva vs Paide II · H/A from ELV
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/23APaide II Vs ELV6-2
17/09/22HELV Vs Paide II9-1
27/08/22APaide II Vs ELV2-0
30/06/22APaide II Vs ELV1-2
24/04/22HELV Vs Paide II1-2

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/06/23AFC Tallinn Vs ELV3-1
04/06/23HELV Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
29/05/23HELV Vs Nõmme United0-2
25/05/23AFlora II Vs ELV2-1
21/05/23HELV Vs JK Tabasalu2-3
13/05/23ALegion Vs ELV0-3
10/05/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs ELV1-2
06/05/23HELV Vs K-Järve JK Järve3-0
01/05/23HELV Vs Viimsi1-3
27/04/23AJK Tabasalu Vs ELV1-0

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/06/23AFCI Levadia II Vs PI2-0
04/06/23HPI Vs Viimsi2-2
29/05/23HPI Vs FC Tallinn0-1
25/05/23ANõmme United Vs PI4-2
20/05/23HPI Vs Flora II0-1
14/05/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs PI1-7
06/05/23HPI Vs Legion2-0
01/05/23HPI Vs JK Tabasalu0-5
27/04/23AViimsi Vs PI2-0
24/04/23AFlora II Vs PI3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.56
HomeLWLLL1.88
AwayLWWLL1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals3.564.003.15
Over 1.5 %84%96%73%
Over 2.5 %62%75%50%
Over 3.5 %42%50%35%
Scored1.862.541.23
Conceded1.701.461.92
BTTS64%71%58%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.16
HomeLWLLD1.12
AwayDLWLL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals4.504.005.00
Over 1.5 %96%92%100%
Over 2.5 %80%76%84%
Over 3.5 %70%60%80%
Scored2.001.802.20
Conceded2.502.202.80
BTTS64%56%72%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3690
78%
2.5
11429+85
4.0
89%
78%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.20.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3671
58%
2.0
6735+32
2.8
69%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Flora IIFlora II3669
61%
1.9
8653+33
3.9
86%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.5
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3657
44%
1.6
5746+11
2.9
81%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3655
50%
1.5
8170+11
4.2
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.9
-
6FC TallinnFC Tallinn3652
44%
1.4
7265+7
3.8
86%
78%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
7ElvaElva3842
32%
1.1
4676-30
3.2
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8Paide IIPaide II3641
33%
1.1
6682-16
4.1
78%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
9LegionLegion3621
14%
0.6
3797-60
3.7
83%
75%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
10K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3620
17%
0.6
50123-73
4.8
92%
86%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
11Tartu KalevTartu Kalev22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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