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Elva vs Paide II Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 2-2
Elva
Elva
Vs
41%
24%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Elva win✗ Miss
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide II win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-730W02L41W07L00D11D10W02L03L22DH·JK 29/10A·K-J02/11A·LEG05/11H·NÕM12/11A·TAR25/11H·TAR29/11H·TAR02/03A·FLO09/03A·FCI17/03H·TAL30/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.001.191.750.792.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.882.191.142.000.582.42
vs Weaker (4)1.750.751.500.002.001.50
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W14L21W24L31W21W02L01L10W16LH·FC 20/10H·FLO25/10A·FLO29/10A·JK 02/11H·VII05/11H·FCI12/11A·FLO02/03H·TAL09/03A·JK 17/03H·TAR30/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.001.132.132.001.87
vs Stronger (8)1.252.121.402.801.001.00
vs Similar (22)1.681.951.001.802.252.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.2%
Under 1.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.5%
Under 2.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.3%
No
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-2 ✓
7.1%
3-1
5.2%
2-0
4.9%
3-2
4.5%
1-3
4.3%
Elva goals ↓
Paide II goals →
01234
03.7%3.8%4.1%2.3%1.0%
14.3%9.8%7.6%4.3%1.9%
24.9%8.3%7.1%4.1%1.7%
33.0%5.2%4.5%2.5%1.1%
41.4%2.4%2.1%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Paide II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Elva is 0.54 points better than Paide II in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 0.69).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Elva is 0.17 goals better than Paide II in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Elva is 1.73 goals better than Paide II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 3.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W00D21W04L00D01L00D01L02L11DH·JK 29/10A·K-J02/11A·LEG05/11H·NÕM12/11A·TAR25/11H·TAR29/11H·TAR02/03A·FLO09/03A·FCI17/03H·TAL30/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.970.690.940.431.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.501.080.641.070.331.08
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W21W31W20W02L01L00D03LH·FC 20/10H·FLO25/10A·FLO29/10A·JK 02/11H·VII05/11H·FCI12/11A·FLO02/03H·TAL09/03A·JK 17/03H·TAR30/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.900.601.001.130.80
vs Stronger (8)0.751.120.801.400.670.67
vs Similar (22)0.910.820.500.801.250.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L20W03L00D10W10W01L01L11DH·JK 29/10A·K-J02/11A·LEG05/11H·NÕM12/11A·TAR25/11H·TAR29/11H·TAR02/03A·FLO09/03A·FCI17/03H·TAL30/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.030.500.810.361.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.381.120.500.930.251.33
vs Weaker (4)0.750.500.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Paide IIPaide II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L11D03L00D01L00D00D10W13LH·FC 20/10H·FLO25/10A·FLO29/10A·JK 02/11H·VII05/11H·FCI12/11A·FLO02/03H·TAL09/03A·JK 17/03H·TAR30/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.100.531.130.871.07
vs Stronger (8)0.501.000.601.400.330.33
vs Similar (22)0.771.140.501.001.001.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.2%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes70.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ELV wins
0
Draws
4
PI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elva vs Paide II · H/A from ELV
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/23HELV Vs Paide II1-0
13/08/23APaide II Vs ELV0-1
29/06/23HELV Vs Paide II0-3
09/03/23APaide II Vs ELV6-2
17/09/22HELV Vs Paide II9-1
27/08/22APaide II Vs ELV2-0
30/06/22APaide II Vs ELV1-2
24/04/22HELV Vs Paide II1-2

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24HELV Vs Tallinna Kalev II2-2
17/03/24AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV3-0
09/03/24AFlora II Vs ELV2-0
02/03/24HELV Vs Tartu Welco1-0
29/11/23HELV Vs Tartu Kalev1-1
25/11/23ATartu Kalev Vs ELV0-0
12/11/23HELV Vs Nõmme United0-7
05/11/23ALegion Vs ELV1-4
02/11/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs ELV2-0
29/10/23HELV Vs JK Tabasalu3-0

Paide IIPaide II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24HPI Vs Tartu Welco1-6
17/03/24AJK Tabasalu Vs PI0-1
09/03/24HPI Vs Tallinna Kalev II0-1
02/03/24AFlora II Vs PI2-0
12/11/23HPI Vs FCI Levadia II2-1
05/11/23HPI Vs Viimsi3-1
02/11/23AJK Tabasalu Vs PI4-2
29/10/23AFlora II Vs PI1-2
25/10/23HPI Vs Flora II1-4
20/10/23HPI Vs FC Tallinn1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD1.18
HomeWLDWD1.44
AwayLWDLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals3.103.123.08
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %60%64%56%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.181.440.92
Conceded1.921.682.16
BTTS46%52%40%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide II
Paide II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.02
HomeLWWLL0.76
AwayWWLLW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%24%36%
AVG goals4.163.844.48
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %60%60%60%
Scored1.621.242.00
Conceded2.542.602.48
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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