This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
3.23
0.80
3.27
1.40
3.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
3.75
0.25
3.75
1.25
3.75
vs Similar (14)
1.50
2.64
1.43
2.71
1.57
2.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 8.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (77%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
99.7%
Under 1.5
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
98.5%
Under 2.5
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
95.5%
Under 3.5
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
85.7%
No
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
5-1
5.2%
6-1
5.2%
5-2
5.1%
6-2
5.1%
7-1
4.5%
7-2
4.4%
4-1
4.4%
4-2
4.3%
Elva goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
1
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
2
0.7%
1.5%
1.4%
0.9%
0.5%
3
1.5%
2.9%
2.9%
1.9%
0.9%
4
2.2%
4.4%
4.3%
2.8%
1.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.60
Trans Narva
2.40
JK Tabasalu
2.25
Laagri
2.25
Vaprus
2.25
Tamper
2.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.25
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.25
Kuressaare
2.25
Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.00
Helios
2.00
Phoenix
2.00
Paide
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Elva
2.00
Legion
1.75
Maksatransport
1.50
Kohtla-Järve
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Vastseliina
1.50
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
Nõmme United
1.50
Tammeka
1.50
Hiiumaa
1.33
Tulevik
1.33
Flora II
1.33
KUBIK
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
TalTech
0.91
Laagri III
0.91
Flora IV
0.91
Rae Spordikool
0.91
Volta II / Arsenal
0.91
Keila
0.91
Joker
0.91
Kallaste United
0.91
Lootus Järve
0.91
Kompanii Marjamaa
0.50
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Saue
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Hell Hunt
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Smsraha
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Eston Villa
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Olympic
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Poseidon
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Saku Sporting
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Elva is 0.25 points worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tammeka
12.50
Laagri
11.00
Vaprus
6.25
Kalju Nomme
6.00
Tallinna Kalev
5.50
Kuressaare
5.25
Elva
4.67
Nõmme United
4.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
4.40
Tartu Kalev
4.33
Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Trans Narva
3.80
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.67
Hiiumaa
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.00
Vastseliina
3.00
JK Tabasalu
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.00
Helios
2.50
Team Helm
2.50
Legion
2.50
Phoenix
2.50
Tamper
2.50
TalTech
2.05
Laagri III
2.05
Flora IV
2.05
Rae Spordikool
2.05
Volta II / Arsenal
2.05
Keila
2.05
Joker
2.05
Kallaste United
2.05
Lootus Järve
2.05
Kohtla-Järve
2.00
FC Tallinn
1.75
Tulevik
1.67
Flora II
1.67
Maksatransport
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Paide
1.33
FC Kohvile
1.00
Kose
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Welco X
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Smsraha
1.00
EstHam United
1.00
Eston Villa
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Poseidon
1.00
Rumori Calcio
1.00
Saku Sporting
1.00
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Saue
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Olympic
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Elva is 0.83 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals scored per game (4.67 vs 5.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Helios
0.50
Kuressaare
0.50
Trans Narva
0.60
Paide
0.67
Kalju Nomme
0.67
Laagri
0.75
Vaprus
0.75
Zealot Sporting
1.00
JK Tabasalu
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Viimsi
1.00
Tammeka
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.25
Elva
1.33
Legion
1.50
Phoenix
1.50
Nõmme United
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.67
Maksatransport
2.00
Hiiumaa
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Vastseliina
2.50
Tallinna Kalev II
2.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
2.50
Tartu Kalev
2.67
Flora II
2.67
Tamper
2.75
Järva-Jaani
3.00
FC Kohvile
3.00
Hell Hunt
3.00
Raplamaa
3.00
Lootos
3.00
Welco X
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Smsraha
3.00
EstHam United
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.50
Team Helm
3.50
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.50
Saue
4.00
Kuusalu Kalev
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Poseidon
4.00
TalTech
4.18
Laagri III
4.18
Flora IV
4.18
Rae Spordikool
4.18
Volta II / Arsenal
4.18
Keila
4.18
Joker
4.18
Kallaste United
4.18
Lootus Järve
4.18
Kohtla-Järve
4.50
Vana Hea Puur
5.00
Kristiine JK
5.00
Rumori Calcio
5.00
Flora III
6.00
Kose
6.00
Tallinna Kalev III
6.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
7.00
Tallinna Wolves
8.00
Eston Villa
11.00
Olympic
11.00
Maardu Aliens
12.00
TransferWise
15.00
Kose II
26.00
Elva is 0.08 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elva or Draw✗ Miss
95.2%
Avg Implied -
90%
5%
5%
covers Elva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva or Tallinna Kalev✓ Hit
94.5%
Avg Implied -
90%
5%
5%
covers Elva + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tallinna Kalev✓ Hit
10.3%
Avg Implied -
90%
5%
5%
covers Draw + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
99.7%
Under
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
98.2%
Under
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
93.5%
Under
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elva, so a minus line means Elva give that many goals of a start and Tallinna Kalev receive them. At -1, Elva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elva)Actual: Tallinna Kalev
Elva -2
68.9%
Draw -2
12.1%
Tallinna Kalev +2
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elva)Actual: Tallinna Kalev
Elva -1
81.0%
Draw -1
8.7%
Tallinna Kalev +1
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Elva)Actual: Draw
Elva +1
95.2%
Draw +1
2.8%
Tallinna Kalev -1
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elva)Actual: Elva
Elva +2
98.0%
Draw +2
1.3%
Tallinna Kalev -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.56
0.62
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.69
0.50
0.71
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.40
1.60
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (16)
0.19
1.56
0.12
1.50
0.25
1.62
vs Similar (14)
0.79
1.29
0.71
1.71
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
1.06
0.88
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.88
1.00
0.93
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.80
0.40
1.67
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
2.19
0.12
2.25
1.00
2.12
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.36
0.71
1.00
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home over 0.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 3.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home -1 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 5.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →