Elva’s defensive solidity is the story to watch. The model assigns a 53% chance to a home win, 29% for a draw and 18% for Tallinna Kalev to lift the trophy. The favourite result is a home victory, with the most likely scoreline 1-0 at 14.8% probability. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% chance. Elva, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Tallinna Kalev, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.22 scored and 3.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Under 5.5 (97.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.9%), Home +2 handicap (94.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0%) and Under 4.5 (92.6%). Elva’s recent form, a win over Nõmme United II, fuels optimism, whereas Tallinna Kalev’s 0-5 loss to Flora II highlights defensive fragility. The match is poised for a tight, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elva win
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev win
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.13
1.43
1.00
2.06
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.25
1.33
1.00
2.17
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
2.50
1.62
2.08
2.00
2.82
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
3.06
1.50
2.38
1.22
3.67
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.92
1.80
1.60
2.14
2.14
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.0%
Under 1.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 3.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
12.2%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.1%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.5%
Elva goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.1%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.8%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.5%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.60
Vaprus
2.40
Paide
2.40
Tartu Welco
2.40
Trans Narva
2.40
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
Elva
2.25
Nõmme United
2.25
Keila
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Laagri
2.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.00
Poseidon
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Tammeka
2.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.80
Saue
1.50
Tallinna Wolves
1.50
Joker
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Hell Hunt
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Tulevik
1.50
Tamper
1.50
Kristiine JK
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Flora II
1.50
Kuressaare
1.50
Kalju Nomme
1.50
Rae Spordikool
1.33
Volta II / Arsenal
1.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
0.96
Lahte United
0.96
Nomme Utd U19
0.96
Rakvere FC Freedom
0.96
Jõgeva Wolves
0.96
Kummik
0.96
Elva III
0.96
Deliirium
0.96
Paide III
0.96
Generation Tallinn
0.96
Rumori Calcio II
0.96
Kena
0.96
Harju JK Laagri U21
0.96
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
0.96
Järva-Jaani
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Zealot Sporting
0.00
Kose
0.00
TalTech
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
Phoenix
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Tartu Kalev
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Elva and Tallinna Kalev are level in average points per game (both 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
9.67
Tartu Welco
6.80
Tabasalu Ulasabat
6.50
Flora II
6.00
Vaprus
5.60
FC Tallinn
5.33
Flora Tallinn
4.80
Tammeka
4.67
Tallinna Wolves
4.50
Trans Narva
4.40
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.00
Kuressaare
4.00
Tallinna Kalev
3.25
Saue
3.00
Keila
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
3.00
Viimsi
3.00
Kalju Nomme
3.00
Paide
2.80
Nõmme United
2.75
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Saku Sporting
2.67
Joker
2.50
Tamper
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.50
Elva
2.25
Tammeka Tartu U19
2.24
Lahte United
2.24
Nomme Utd U19
2.24
Rakvere FC Freedom
2.24
Jõgeva Wolves
2.24
Kummik
2.24
Elva III
2.24
Deliirium
2.24
Paide III
2.24
Generation Tallinn
2.24
Rumori Calcio II
2.24
Kena
2.24
Harju JK Laagri U21
2.24
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.24
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Team Helm
2.00
Rumori Calcio
2.00
Kristiine JK
2.00
Poseidon
1.67
Järva-Jaani
1.00
Flora III
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
TalTech
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Kalev
1.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Elva is 1.00 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 3.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tallinna Kalev II
0.33
Laagri
0.33
Tartu Welco
0.40
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.60
Trans Narva
0.80
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.00
Paide
1.20
Elva
1.25
Nõmme United
1.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.33
Tammeka
1.33
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Poseidon
2.33
FC Tallinn
2.33
Saue
2.50
Flora II
2.50
Viimsi
2.60
Hiiumaa
3.00
Helios
3.00
Legion
3.00
Tamper
3.00
Joker
3.50
Hell Hunt
3.50
Järva-Jaani
4.00
FC Kohvile
4.00
Keila
4.00
Tallinna Wolves
4.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
4.00
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Rumori Calcio
4.00
Kristiine JK
4.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
4.31
Lahte United
4.31
Nomme Utd U19
4.31
Rakvere FC Freedom
4.31
Jõgeva Wolves
4.31
Kummik
4.31
Elva III
4.31
Deliirium
4.31
Paide III
4.31
Generation Tallinn
4.31
Rumori Calcio II
4.31
Kena
4.31
Harju JK Laagri U21
4.31
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
4.31
Raplamaa
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
6.00
Soccernet
6.00
Phoenix
6.00
JK Tabasalu
6.00
Olympic
6.00
Tulevik
6.50
Zealot Sporting
7.00
Kose
7.00
TalTech
7.00
Team Helm
7.00
Welco X
8.00
Flora III
8.00
EstHam United
9.00
Kuusalu Kalev
16.00
TransferWise
26.00
Elva is 0.75 goals better than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elva or Draw
81.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
29%
18%
covers Elva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva or Tallinna Kalev
70.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
29%
18%
covers Elva + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
47.3%
Avg Implied -
53%
29%
18%
covers Draw + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elva over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elva, so a minus line means Elva give that many goals of a start and Tallinna Kalev receive them. At -1, Elva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elva)
Elva -2
10.8%
Draw -2
16.5%
Tallinna Kalev +2
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Elva)
Elva -1
27.4%
Draw -1
25.3%
Tallinna Kalev +1
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Elva)
Elva +1
81.8%
Draw +1
12.5%
Tallinna Kalev -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Elva)
Elva +2
94.3%
Draw +2
4.4%
Tallinna Kalev -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.42
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.77
0.85
0.71
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.76
0.62
1.12
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.63
1.00
0.57
1.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.75
1.00
0.58
1.50
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.85
1.23
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.29
0.88
1.25
0.89
1.33
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
0.80
1.20
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →