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Elva vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 0-1
Elva
Elva
Vs
25%
25%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Elva win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L20W43W12L31W00D21W31W43W02LH·FLO27/07H·FCI03/08A·FC 10/08A·VII17/08H·PAI20/08A·TAR24/08H·LAA31/08H·JK 15/09A·PAI19/09A·FLO22/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.871.731.471.072.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.401.871.731.471.072.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W35L13L11D31W00D40W30W01L22DA·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09A·FCI19/09H·PAI22/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.171.801.402.140.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.501.441.441.561.571.29
vs Weaker (13)2.540.852.331.172.710.57
Clean sheet %28% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.0%
Under 2.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.7%
0-1 ✓
7.5%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
5.8%
0-0
5.8%
Elva goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
01234
05.8%7.5%7.7%4.7%2.1%
14.8%12%9.6%5.8%2.6%
23.6%6.6%6.0%3.6%1.6%
31.5%2.7%2.5%1.5%0.7%
40.5%0.8%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Elva is 0.43 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.67).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Elva is 0.47 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.94).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Elva is 0.41 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W23L10W11D00D00D10W13L00DH·FLO27/07H·FCI03/08A·FC 10/08A·VII17/08H·PAI20/08A·TAR24/08H·LAA31/08H·JK 15/09A·PAI19/09A·FLO22/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.900.600.670.471.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.900.600.670.471.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L02L01L11D00D10W00D00D12LA·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09A·FCI19/09H·PAI22/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.590.600.671.290.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.690.560.671.140.71
vs Weaker (13)1.080.460.670.671.430.29
Clean sheet %59% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W20W02L20W00D21W21W30W02LH·FLO27/07H·FCI03/08A·FC 10/08A·VII17/08H·PAI20/08A·TAR24/08H·LAA31/08H·JK 15/09A·PAI19/09A·FLO22/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.971.130.800.601.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.870.971.130.800.601.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D23L11D10W20W00D30W30W01L10WA·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09A·FCI19/09H·PAI22/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.591.200.730.860.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.750.890.890.430.57
vs Weaker (13)1.460.381.670.501.290.29
Clean sheet %52% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
ELV wins
2
Draws
0
TW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Elva vs Tartu Welco · H/A from ELV
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/24ATartu Welco Vs ELV0-0
02/06/24ATartu Welco Vs ELV0-0
02/03/24HELV Vs Tartu Welco1-0

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/24AFlora II Vs ELV2-0
19/09/24APaide II Vs ELV3-4
15/09/24HELV Vs JK Tabasalu3-1
31/08/24HELV Vs Laagri2-1
24/08/24ATartu Welco Vs ELV0-0
20/08/24HELV Vs Paide II3-1
17/08/24AViimsi Vs ELV2-1
10/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs ELV3-4
03/08/24HELV Vs FCI Levadia II2-0
27/07/24HELV Vs Flora II1-3

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/24HTW Vs Paide II2-2
19/09/24AFCI Levadia II Vs TW1-0
14/09/24HTW Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-0
31/08/24AJK Tabasalu Vs TW0-4
24/08/24HTW Vs Elva0-0
20/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs TW1-3
17/08/24ALaagri Vs TW1-1
10/08/24HTW Vs Viimsi1-3
05/08/24HTW Vs Flora II3-5
27/07/24APaide II Vs TW1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.22
HomeLWWWW1.48
AwayWLDWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals3.183.123.24
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %64%64%64%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored1.261.521.00
Conceded1.921.602.24
BTTS46%52%40%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLD1.69
HomeLLDWD1.53
AwayWDWWL1.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%40%50%
AVG goals3.143.203.07
Over 1.5 %79%80%79%
Over 2.5 %59%60%57%
Over 3.5 %41%40%43%
Scored1.971.802.14
Conceded1.171.400.93
BTTS59%53%64%
Clean Sheet28%33%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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