This matchup between Elva and Tartu Welco in the Estonia Esiliiga A is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.6 goals. Both teams have shown attacking prowess, with Elva averaging 1.5 goals at home and Tartu Welco averaging 1.71 goals away from home against similar opponents. However, Elva's defensive record is slightly more impressive, conceding just 0.83 goals at home, compared to Tartu Welco's 2.29 goals conceded away from home.
Tartu Welco is the model's selection for the away win, with a 50% probability, making it the favourite to take home the three points. Elva has a 28% chance of winning, while a draw is possible with a 23% probability. The model is also backing the Over 1.5 goal selection, with a high probability of 88.3%, and a slight edge of 1%. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 9.5% probability.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Elva defeated Tartu Welco 2-1, extending their unbeaten run to 5 matches. The model's selection, an Away win, was a surprising call given the pre-match probability of 50% for an Away win, but unfortunately, it was incorrect. The model's selection was not the favourite, as the pre-match favourite was actually the Away win, and the probability of a Home win was 28%. The model's selection of an Away win was wrong. The model had also suggested Over 1.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 88.3%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elva win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 21.7% · @ 4.17
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.60
Superbet
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.28
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.50
Betfair
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Tartu Welco win✗ Miss
49.6%
Avg Implied 57.1% · @ 1.59
Edge
-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Bet365
1.60
Dafabet
1.59
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Elva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.50
1.57
1.43
2.06
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.72
1.64
1.45
1.55
1.93
1.71
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.80
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
1.67
2.29
1.64
2.56
1.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (19)
2.47
1.74
2.30
1.80
2.67
1.67
vs Weaker (10)
2.50
1.20
2.25
1.25
2.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.3%
@ 1.06+1.4%
Under 1.5
11.7%
@ 7.10-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
5.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.8%
@ 1.30-1.1%
Under 2.5
30.2%
@ 3.15+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.5%
@ 1.80-2.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
@ 1.88+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.72
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.3%
@ 1.37+1.5%
No
30.7%
@ 2.90-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
No
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.94
Superbet
2.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%@ 9.33+5.0%
1-2
9.0%@ 8.00+3.8%
2-2
6.8%@ 10.67+3.0%
2-1 ✓
6.6%@ 13.67+3.6%
1-3
6.2%@ 9.67+1.9%
0-2
5.9%@ 10.67+2.0%
0-1
4.8%@ 12.33+1.4%
2-3
4.7%@ 13.67+1.7%
Elva goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
4.8%
5.9%
4.1%
2.1%
1
3.3%
9.5%
9.0%
6.2%
3.2%
2
3.2%
6.6%
6.8%
4.7%
2.5%
3
1.6%
3.4%
3.5%
2.4%
1.3%
4
0.6%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elva goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Elva is 0.50 points better than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Elva is 1.07 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Elva is 1.10 goals better than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.57
0.50
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.64
0.45
0.55
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
0.93
1.14
1.19
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.16
1.00
1.20
1.44
1.11
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.60
0.75
1.00
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.00
0.93
1.38
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.29
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.63
1.36
0.50
1.38
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.26
0.58
1.30
0.60
1.22
0.56
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.60
1.50
0.25
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.3%
1.06
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
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Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II