In a finely balanced matchup, Emmen's recent form will be a key storyline as they look to maintain their 2-game winning streak against Jong AZ. Emmen has been scoring at an average of 2 goals per game at home, while conceding 1.5 goals. Jong AZ, on the other hand, has been scoring 2.3 goals per game away from home, but conceding 2.2 goals.
The model predicts a 40% chance of an Emmen win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance of a Jong AZ win. The most likely match result is a home win, with an expected total of 3.1 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.8% probability.
In terms of suggested selections, the model recommends Over 1.5 goals at 82.8%, Home or Away at 76.2%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 74.3%. Emmen's home win percentage is 40%, with a draw percentage of 26% and an away win percentage of 34%.
Results analysis
Emmen’s 4-game winning streak continued as they edged Jong AZ 3-1, the result that the model had predicted. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 39 % probability and proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6 %, Under 7.5 at 96.3 %, Under 6.5 at 91.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 88.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 87.7 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 87.6 %, and Over 19.5 fouls at 86.4 %. All picks settled in favour of the predicted outcome, confirming the model’s strong performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Emmen win✓ Hit
38.7%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.30
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Dafabet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.70
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Jong AZ win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied 34.8% · @ 2.66
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.75
1xBet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.71
Superbet
2.70
Bet365
2.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Emmen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.87
1.57
1.43
1.38
2.25
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
1.83
2.00
2.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.88
1.45
1.27
1.38
2.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
2.00
1.27
1.73
2.33
2.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.27
2.27
1.80
2.00
2.67
2.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
1.84
1.00
1.60
2.11
2.11
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Under 1.5
14.9%
@ 5.79-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Pinnacle
6.09
BetVictor
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.9%
@ 1.41-1.8%
Under 2.5
36.1%
@ 2.71+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.79
888Sport
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.8%
@ 2.05-3.9%
Under 3.5
58.2%
@ 1.72+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.16
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
888Sport
1.75
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.1%
@ 1.38-1.2%
No
33.9%
@ 2.84+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Betfair
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
No
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 7.45+5.0%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.99+3.4%
1-2
8.1%@ 9.55+3.4%
2-2
6.8%@ 9.65+2.1%
1-0
5.2%@ 12.71+1.6%
2-0
5.2%@ 14.26+2.0%
0-1
5.0%@ 13.57+1.6%
0-2
4.9%@ 16.71+2.1%
Emmen goals ↓
Jong AZ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
5.0%
4.9%
2.6%
1.1%
1
5.2%
11%
8.1%
4.4%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.4%
6.8%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.9%
4.7%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.2%
2.0%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Emmen goals (down), columns = Jong AZ goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
NAC Breda
1.65
Heracles
1.60
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Emmen is 0.13 points better than Jong AZ in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
NAC Breda
1.88
Heracles
1.82
Waalwijk
1.76
Jong PSV U21
1.74
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Emmen is 0.08 goals worse than Jong AZ in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
NAC Breda
1.34
Heracles
1.38
Roda
1.40
Vitesse
1.45
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
FC OSS
1.68
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
Jong Ajax
1.92
MVV
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Emmen is 0.11 goals better than Jong AZ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Emmen is 1.7 percentage points worse than Jong AZ in terms of average possession (52% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Emmen
For 5.8 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 0.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 9.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong AZ
For 5.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Emmen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.1
9.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
26.0
27.2
24.7
vs Stronger (8)
12.4
14.8
9.3
2.6
3.5
1.8
23.6
23.8
23.3
vs Similar (41)
10.0
10.4
9.7
3.9
3.8
4.0
26.4
27.9
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
75%
50%
48%
52%
44%
73%
71%
75%
% under line
38%
25%
50%
52%
48%
56%
27%
29%
25%
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.9
11.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
23.6
24.8
22.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
11.5
10.4
12.8
3.7
3.6
3.8
23.5
25.5
21.3
vs Weaker (29)
10.0
9.6
10.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
23.6
24.3
23.0
% over line
56%
48%
64%
40%
40%
40%
68%
80%
56%
% under line
44%
52%
36%
60%
60%
60%
32%
20%
44%
This opponent (Emmen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
Dordrecht
11.7
De Graafschap
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Volendam
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Vitesse
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
26.0
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
25.0
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
MVV
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.6%
@ 1.50+2.3%
Under 9.5
36.4%
@ 2.38-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.44
Marathonbet
2.41
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.33
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.2%
Under 3.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.0%
Under 21.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Emmen or Draw✓ Hit
62.1%
Avg Implied 65.1% · @ 1.43
Edge
-3.1%
39%
25%
36%
covers Emmen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Emmen or Jong AZ✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.24
Edge
+1.8%
39%
25%
36%
covers Emmen + Jong AZ
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Draw or Jong AZ✗ Miss
61.0%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.56
Edge
+1.3%
39%
25%
36%
covers Draw + Jong AZ
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Emmen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.8%
@ 1.14+3.4%
Under
15.2%
@ 5.00-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Emmen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.2%
@ 1.75+3.0%
Under
43.8%
@ 1.99-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Emmen over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
29.3%
@ 3.34+1.5%
Under
70.7%
@ 1.28-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Emmen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 7.20-0.7%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.08+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Jong AZ over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.4%
@ 1.17+5.2%
Under
15.6%
@ 4.47-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.50
Jong AZ over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.5%
@ 1.88+6.1%
Under
44.5%
@ 1.83-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Under
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Jong AZ over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.6%
@ 3.82+4.3%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.22-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Pinnacle
3.84
888Sport
3.80
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Jong AZ over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 8.40+0.7%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.06-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Emmen, so a minus line means Emmen give that many goals of a start and Jong AZ receive them. At -1, Emmen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Emmen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Emmen)Actual: Draw
Emmen -2
9.5%
@ 8.13-1.5%
Draw -2
11.8%
@ 6.53-1.9%
Jong AZ +2
78.6%
@ 1.19+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Away
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Handicap -1 (Emmen)Actual: Emmen
Emmen -1
21.4%
@ 4.09-0.5%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 4.34-3.0%
Jong AZ +1
61.0%
@ 1.55+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Away
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Emmen)Actual: Emmen
Emmen +1
62.1%
@ 1.43-0.6%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 4.67-1.8%
Jong AZ -1
20.6%
@ 4.90+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Unibet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Emmen)Actual: Emmen
Emmen +2
79.4%
@ 1.13+1.1%
Draw +2
11.5%
@ 7.01-1.1%
Jong AZ -2
9.1%
@ 9.70-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
6.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Emmen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.86
0.93
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
1.04
0.82
0.73
0.31
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.53
0.80
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.79
0.50
0.70
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.8%
@ 1.22-0.0%
Under 0.5
24.2%
@ 3.82+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.1%
@ 2.06-3.2%
Under 1.5
57.9%
@ 1.70+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.6%
@ 4.40-5.5%
Under 2.5
84.4%
@ 1.17+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.25
Under
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Emmen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
54.5%
@ 1.70-0.2%
Under
45.5%
@ 2.05+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Emmen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.47-3.5%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.17+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Emmen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 11.25-5.0%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.7%
@ 1.79-3.1%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.93+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.78
Under
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.95-6.3%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.14+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 13.00-4.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Emmen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.71
0.50
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.83
0.64
0.55
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
0.73
0.93
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.27
1.20
1.00
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
1.05
0.50
0.90
1.22
1.22
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Emmen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.1%
1.11
10Bet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.11
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
1.14
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.4%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
82.3%
1.10
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.9%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.8%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-0.0%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.9%
1.29
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
71.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
70.7%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
-1.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Emmen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Freddy Quispel75%
Nelson Amadin50%
Michael Breij25%
Jack Cooper Love25%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alessandro Hojabrpour50%
Bryan Van Hove50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Joshua Mukeh25%
Luca Everink25%
Sybrand Veldhuis25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Jack Cooper Love0%
Casper Staring0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Sam Karssies0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jack Cooper Love50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Casper Staring25%
Bryan Van Hove25%
Luca Everink25%
Sam Karssies25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Freddy Quispel75%
Jack Cooper Love75%
Michael Breij50%
Nelson Amadin50%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Jong AZ
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julian Oerip50%
Rio Robbemond33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Yoël van den Ban25%
Sam De Grand0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Oerip50%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rio Robbemond33%
Andrea Natali33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Yoël van den Ban25%
Sam De Grand0%
Julian Oerip0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Oerip100%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Emmen and Jong AZ have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Emmen and Jong AZ have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Emmen and Jong AZ have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Emmen and Jong AZ have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Vitesse
Roda
Jong PSV U21
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
Jong Ajax
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht