This Serie B match between Empoli and Cremonese is finely balanced, with Empoli coming off a draw against Monza and Cremonese still reeling from a 1-4 defeat to Como. Empoli's home form against similar opponents has seen them score an average of 1.46 goals and concede 1.15, while Cremonese's away form has seen them score 1.0 goals and concede 0.78. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.3% probability.
Empoli are the favourites to win, with a 38% chance of victory, while Cremonese have a 32% chance. A draw is also possible, with a 30% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The model's selection is a home win, but they also suggest an over 21.5 fouls model's selection with a 96.3% probability, an under 3.5 model's selection with a 77.6% probability, and an over 1.5 model's selection with a 70.7% probability.
Results analysis
Empoli’s win over Cremonese, 1-0, extended their recent victory and proved the model’s prediction of a home win correct. The Pythia model had given the home side a 38 % chance, and the final result matched that favourite. The match’s 1-0 scoreline also aligned with the most likely outcome of 1-1, 0-0 or 1-0, each hovering around 10 % probability. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.7 %) and Under 6.5 goals (98.9 %) were both fulfilled, as were Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.8 %) and Under 5.5 (96.7 %). Only the Over 19.5 fouls (98.6 %) missed, but the overall accuracy of the model’s selections remains strong.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Empoli win✓ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.84
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.99
Dafabet
2.95
Superbet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Betfair
2.90
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.06
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
Dafabet
3.15
Superbet
3.15
10Bet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
Cremonese win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.55
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.68
Unibet
2.65
10Bet
2.65
888Sport
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Empoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
1.43
1.07
1.00
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.36
1.27
1.00
1.14
1.64
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.20
2.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cremonese
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.57
0.87
1.67
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
2.57
0.62
2.62
0.17
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.69
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.33+0.7%
Under 1.5
29.4%
@ 3.11-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.07-2.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.73+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
SBO
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
@ 3.66-3.2%
Under 3.5
77.7%
@ 1.26+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.81
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.1%
@ 1.76-2.8%
No
49.9%
@ 1.97+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
10Bet
1.77
No
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
888Sport
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 5.61+6.3%
0-0
10.3%@ 8.10+4.8%
1-0 ✓
10.2%@ 7.97+4.6%
0-1
8.9%@ 7.42+2.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.67+3.7%
1-2
7.4%@ 8.91+2.4%
2-0
7.3%@ 13.29+3.9%
0-2
5.8%@ 11.83+2.0%
Empoli goals ↓
Cremonese goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.9%
5.8%
2.2%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.3%
8.3%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.1%
3.5%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Empoli goals (down), columns = Cremonese goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Empoli is 0.46 points worse than Cremonese in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Empoli is 0.22 goals worse than Cremonese in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Empoli is 0.31 goals worse than Cremonese in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Empoli
For 4.5 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.7 · Against 14.7 · Total 33.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cremonese
For 4.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Empoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.8
4.4
4.6
4.2
29.9
30.4
29.3
vs Stronger (5)
8.2
9.5
7.3
5.4
6.0
5.0
26.0
23.0
28.0
vs Similar (37)
9.3
8.7
10.0
4.3
4.4
4.3
29.8
30.9
28.7
vs Weaker (8)
11.4
12.2
10.5
4.2
5.2
3.2
32.6
32.0
33.2
% over line
50%
44%
56%
72%
80%
64%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
50%
56%
44%
28%
20%
36%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cremonese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.6
9.6
4.0
3.9
4.1
28.3
28.0
28.6
vs Stronger (18)
9.4
8.7
10.1
3.4
3.4
3.4
25.3
25.8
24.9
vs Similar (30)
8.9
8.4
9.4
4.3
4.3
4.4
30.0
29.0
31.1
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
10.0
9.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
29.0
32.0
26.0
% over line
44%
36%
52%
48%
52%
44%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
56%
64%
48%
52%
48%
56%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.4
Virtus Entella
10.1
Padova
10.1
Empoli
9.5
Mantova
9.5
Palermo
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Cremonese
9.1
Avellino
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.8
Hellas Verona
8.7
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.2
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.8
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.4
Sudtirol
4.3
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.1
Hellas Verona
4.1
Pisa
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Ascoli
32.6
Avellino
31.2
Catanzaro
30.8
Sudtirol
30.7
Juve Stabia
30.2
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Empoli
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.7
Benevento
28.6
Palermo
28.3
Cremonese
28.3
Carrarese
28.2
Cesena
26.2
Hellas Verona
25.8
Pisa
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.97+5.1%
Under 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.75-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Under
Unibet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.2%
@ 1.29-2.2%
Under 3.5
32.8%
@ 2.92+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
Under
Superbet
2.92
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
96.3%
Under 21.5
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Empoli or Draw✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.48
Edge
-1.6%
38%
30%
32%
covers Empoli + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Empoli or Cremonese✓ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-0.2%
38%
30%
32%
covers Empoli + Cremonese
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Draw or Cremonese✗ Miss
68.8%
Avg Implied 67.1% · @ 1.39
Edge
+1.7%
38%
30%
32%
covers Draw + Cremonese
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Empoli over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.9%
@ 1.34-2.4%
Under
33.1%
@ 3.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Betano
3.10
888Sport
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Empoli over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.3%
@ 2.69-4.3%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.42+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
Betano
1.47
888Sport
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Empoli over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 6.62-4.0%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.08+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Empoli over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 16.94-3.0%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Cremonese over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.4%
@ 1.30-0.1%
Under
28.6%
@ 3.25+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.41
Betano
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Cremonese over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.6%
@ 2.51-1.6%
Under
64.4%
@ 1.48+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.63
10Bet
2.60
BetVictor
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Cremonese over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 5.94-2.5%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.10+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Cremonese over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 15.75-2.2%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Empoli, so a minus line means Empoli give that many goals of a start and Cremonese receive them. At -1, Empoli must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Empoli win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Empoli)Actual: Cremonese
Empoli -2
3.9%
@ 14.88-2.2%
Draw -2
9.0%
@ 8.28-2.1%
Cremonese +2
87.1%
@ 1.10+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.60
Unibet
7.00
Away
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Empoli)Actual: Draw
Empoli -1
12.9%
@ 6.03-2.0%
Draw -1
18.3%
@ 4.28-2.8%
Cremonese +1
68.8%
@ 1.40+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Handicap +1 (Empoli)Actual: Empoli
Empoli +1
61.7%
@ 1.47+0.9%
Draw +1
20.9%
@ 4.05-1.1%
Cremonese -1
17.5%
@ 5.17+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Handicap +2 (Empoli)Actual: Empoli
Empoli +2
82.5%
@ 1.12+2.9%
Draw +2
11.5%
@ 7.05-1.1%
Cremonese -2
6.0%
@ 11.44-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Empoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.36
0.71
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.56
0.27
0.64
0.64
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cremonese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.07
1.21
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.29
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.0%
@ 1.43+5.0%
Under 0.5
30.0%
@ 2.66-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
William Hil
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.1%
@ 3.00+3.9%
Under 1.5
64.9%
@ 1.36-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.16
Betano
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 7.79+1.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.06-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.2%
@ 2.21-0.7%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.60+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Empoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 7.24-2.2%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Under
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Empoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 20.83-3.0%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Cremonese over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.8%
@ 2.13+6.3%
Under
50.2%
@ 1.64-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Unibet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.61
Cremonese over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 6.70-0.0%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.08+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Cremonese over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 19.17-2.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Empoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.07
0.36
0.44
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.80
1.00
0.36
0.50
1.14
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cremonese
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.36
0.50
1.50
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.25
0.71
0.29
0.56
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.6%
Under 0.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.1%
Under 1.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.5%
Under 2.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Empoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cremonese over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cremonese over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cremonese over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
90.9%
1.07
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.06
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.1%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.07
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.8%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.5%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.26
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.4%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.6%
1.33
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+0.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Empoli
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Edoardo Saporiti67%
Stiven Shpendi33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gerard Yepes67%
Marco Curto33%
Luca Magnino33%
Cristian Cauz0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cauz33%
Matteo Egan33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edoardo Saporiti33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Cremonese
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tommaso Berti33%
Simone Lottici Tessadri33%
S. Luperto0%
Giuseppe Pezzella0%
M. Bianchetti0%
J. Vandeputte0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
S. Pontisso0%
M. De Luca0%
F. Gerli0%
M. Nasti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Gerli67%
J. Vandeputte50%
Giuseppe Pezzella33%
S. Pontisso33%
M. Bianchetti25%
S. Luperto0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
M. De Luca0%
Tommaso Berti0%
M. Nasti0%
Simone Lottici Tessadri0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tommaso Berti33%
M. Nasti33%
S. Luperto0%
Giuseppe Pezzella0%
M. Bianchetti0%
J. Vandeputte0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
S. Pontisso0%
M. De Luca0%
F. Gerli0%
Simone Lottici Tessadri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Luperto0%
Giuseppe Pezzella0%
M. Bianchetti0%
J. Vandeputte0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
S. Pontisso0%
M. De Luca0%
F. Gerli0%
Tommaso Berti0%
M. Nasti0%
Simone Lottici Tessadri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Empoli's squad is €29m less valuable than Cremonese's (€20m vs €49m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Empoli's attack is €2m less valuable than Cremonese's (€11m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Empoli's midfield is €9m less valuable than Cremonese's (€6m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Empoli's defence is €18m less valuable than Cremonese's (€4m vs €22m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella