Defensive solidity will shape the early minutes, as Enisey’s home form shows a low 0.6 goals conceded per game, while FC UFA’s away record allows 1.5. The model favours a home win, with a 46% probability, followed by a 32% draw and a 22% away victory. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal total at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14.8% chance. Enisey’s 1.4 average goals scored at home against similar opposition contrasts with FC UFA’s 0.75 away goals scored. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 90.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 86.7%, Under 3.5 at 84.6% (miss), Over 3.5 cards at 79.4%, and Under 10.5 corners at 78.8%. The match is poised for a tight, low-scoring affair, with Enisey’s defensive strength and recent draw-shaped form giving them the edge.
Results analysis
After a draw against Shinnik Yaroslavl, Enisey’s recent form shows a single win in five matches, yet they edged FC UFA 3-1 to secure the home win, matching the model’s favourite. The model had assigned a 46% probability to a home victory, and its call proved correct. The predicted 2-goal total fell short, with the match producing three goals, and the model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5, missed. The probability for that selection was 84.6%. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 (14.8%) did not materialise, and the final 3-1 result extended Enisey’s home advantage while ending FC UFA’s two-game winning streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Enisey win✓ Hit
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC UFA win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Enisey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.14
1.67
0.83
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.50
3.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.92
1.40
0.60
1.14
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
21% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.21
0.71
1.43
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.00
1.50
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.44
1.00
1.40
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.3%
Under 1.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.0%
Under 2.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.4%
Under 3.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.7%
No
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
1-1
14.1%
0-0
14.0%
2-0
10.2%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.3%
Enisey goals ↓
FC UFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.9%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
8.1%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.3%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Enisey goals (down), columns = FC UFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rubin
2.03
Baltika
1.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.82
Enisey
1.59
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38
FK Neftekhimik
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.35
Akron
1.35
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Volgar Astrakhan
1.29
KAMAZ
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.21
Urozhay
1.09
Veles
0.97
Krasnodar 2
0.91
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88
FC UFA
0.88
Enisey is 0.71 points better than FC UFA in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.65
Baltika
1.65
Rubin
1.56
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47
Enisey
1.26
Rodina Moskva
1.24
Akron
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.09
Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.06
Urozhay
1.06
Veles
1.03
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Krasnodar 2
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.74
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.68
Enisey is 0.32 goals better than FC UFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.76
Rubin
0.79
Baltika
0.88
FK Neftekhimik
0.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.03
Enisey
1.03
Akron
1.06
KAMAZ
1.06
Rodina Moskva
1.12
Ska-khabarovsk
1.15
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.21
Volgar Astrakhan
1.21
Urozhay
1.21
Arsenal Tula
1.35
FC UFA
1.35
Krasnodar 2
1.59
Veles
1.62
Enisey is 0.32 goals better than FC UFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Enisey
For 4.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC UFA
For 4.0 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Enisey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
9.8
8.5
11.0
1.4
1.3
1.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
8.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
10.3
9.0
11.0
1.6
1.6
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
0%
50%
14%
17%
12%
-
-
-
% under line
75%
100%
50%
86%
83%
88%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
7.4
7.0
7.7
1.6
1.4
1.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
9.0
-
9.0
1.2
0.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
7.0
7.0
7.0
1.9
2.0
1.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
20%
0%
33%
29%
29%
29%
-
-
-
% under line
80%
100%
67%
71%
71%
71%
-
-
-
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
10.6
Akron
10.5
Enisey
9.8
Baltika
9.3
Urozhay
9.2
Volgar Astrakhan
9.2
Krasnodar 2
8.8
Ska-khabarovsk
8.8
Rubin
8.8
Shinnik Yaroslavl
8.7
KAMAZ
8.2
FK Neftekhimik
7.7
Dinamo Makhachkala
7.6
FC UFA
7.4
Veles
7.2
Rodina Moskva
7.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
7.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ska-khabarovsk
7.3
KAMAZ
6.4
Rubin
6.3
Enisey
6.3
FK Neftekhimik
6.0
Akron
6.0
Volgar Astrakhan
5.4
Krasnodar 2
5.2
Arsenal Tula
5.0
Veles
5.0
Urozhay
5.0
Rodina Moskva
4.8
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.6
FC UFA
4.6
Baltika
4.3
Shinnik Yaroslavl
4.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.8%
Under 9.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.4%
Under 3.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Enisey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.57
1.17
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.42
1.00
0.20
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.29
0.43
0.43
0.29
0.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.33
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Enisey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Enisey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC UFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.93
0.29
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (9)
0.33
1.11
0.40
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Enisey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (27)
€45m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
RM (26)
€17m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
DM (13)
€9m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
AT (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (6)
€12m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Enisey and FC UFA have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →