This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.20
1.73
1.40
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.76
1.08
1.77
1.42
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
7.9%
0-0 ✓
7.1%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
Erzgebirge Aue goals ↓
Dynamo Dresden goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
8.6%
7.9%
4.3%
1.8%
1
5.9%
13%
9.4%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.2%
6.9%
5.6%
3.0%
1.2%
3
1.7%
2.7%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Erzgebirge Aue goals (down), columns = Dynamo Dresden goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.85
1. FC Nürnberg
1.76
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld
1.41
VfL Bochum
1.41
Duisburg
1.41
Regensburg
1.41
Union Berlin
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.26
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.18
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.15
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.03 points worse than Dynamo Dresden in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Holstein Kiel
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.68
Union Berlin
1.59
Regensburg
1.56
Duisburg
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Bochum
1.09
FC St. Pauli
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue
1.03
SV Sandhausen
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.21 goals worse than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SV Sandhausen
0.97
1. FC Nürnberg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
Ingolstadt
1.32
Union Berlin
1.35
Arminia Bielefeld
1.38
FC St. Pauli
1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.44
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
Regensburg
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.62
Duisburg
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.65
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.09 goals better than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
For 4.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dynamo Dresden
For 4.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.7
8.9
2.8
2.7
2.9
28.8
28.4
29.2
vs Stronger (28)
9.0
9.7
8.2
2.4
2.7
2.2
27.8
27.8
27.9
vs Similar (22)
9.6
9.7
9.5
3.2
2.7
3.7
29.9
29.3
30.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
69%
31%
48%
42%
54%
91%
100%
81%
% under line
50%
31%
69%
52%
58%
46%
9%
0%
19%
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
8.8
10.6
2.7
2.6
2.8
27.7
26.7
28.6
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
8.0
12.7
2.8
2.5
3.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
vs Similar (40)
9.5
8.9
10.1
2.8
2.6
3.0
27.2
26.2
28.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
38%
62%
44%
46%
42%
84%
88%
81%
% under line
50%
62%
38%
56%
54%
58%
16%
12%
19%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Nürnberg
10.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.6
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Arminia Bielefeld
10.3
1. FC Heidenheim
10.3
FC St. Pauli
10.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.0
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.9
Dynamo Dresden
9.7
Holstein Kiel
9.6
Union Berlin
9.6
Ingolstadt
9.6
VfL Bochum
9.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.3
Regensburg
9.3
Erzgebirge Aue
9.3
SV Sandhausen
8.8
Duisburg
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Regensburg
5.2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.0
Holstein Kiel
4.9
1. FC Heidenheim
4.5
Duisburg
4.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.4
Erzgebirge Aue
4.3
SV Darmstadt 98
4.3
SV Sandhausen
4.3
VfL Bochum
4.3
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
FC St. Pauli
4.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.0
1. FC Nürnberg
3.7
Union Berlin
3.6
Arminia Bielefeld
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
32.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
31.9
Regensburg
31.7
Ingolstadt
30.4
1. FC Heidenheim
29.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
29.9
Union Berlin
28.8
Erzgebirge Aue
28.8
Holstein Kiel
28.8
VfL Bochum
28.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
28.4
Duisburg
28.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
28.2
SV Darmstadt 98
28.1
Dynamo Dresden
27.7
FC St. Pauli
25.8
1. FC Nürnberg
25.6
Arminia Bielefeld
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.7%
Under 9.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.7%
Under 3.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.67
0.40
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.47
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.40
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.72
0.54
0.54
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.53
0.80
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.73
0.75
0.75
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.40
1.07
0.29
0.86
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.53
1.20
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.68
1.04
0.54
1.23
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dynamo Dresden · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Sterner67%
Vincent Vermeij33%
Robert Wagner33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Ben Bobzien0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Keller100%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Vincent Vermeij0%
Nils Fröling0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jonas Sterner33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jakob Lemmer33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
1FK (26)
€28m
SD9 (28)
€24m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Erzgebirge Aue's squad is €17m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€2m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (10)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's attack is €6m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€1m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (6)
€26m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's midfield is €4m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's defence is €7m less valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€1m vs €8m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Duisburg
Union Berlin
Ingolstadt
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Sandhausen
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Eintracht Braunschweig
1. FC Kaiserslautern