This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.27
1.60
1.33
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (21)
1.57
1.00
1.90
1.00
1.27
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.33
1.89
1.00
2.00
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.2%
0-0 ✓
8.2%
2-1
6.8%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
5.2%
Erzgebirge Aue goals ↓
Ingolstadt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
9.5%
8.2%
4.2%
1.6%
1
6.6%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
4.4%
6.8%
5.2%
2.7%
1.0%
3
1.7%
2.6%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Erzgebirge Aue goals (down), columns = Ingolstadt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.85
1. FC Nürnberg
1.76
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld
1.41
VfL Bochum
1.41
Duisburg
1.41
Regensburg
1.41
Union Berlin
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.26
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.18
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.15
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.15 points worse than Ingolstadt in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Holstein Kiel
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.68
Union Berlin
1.59
Regensburg
1.56
Duisburg
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Bochum
1.09
FC St. Pauli
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue
1.03
SV Sandhausen
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.35 goals worse than Ingolstadt in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SV Sandhausen
0.97
1. FC Nürnberg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
Ingolstadt
1.32
Union Berlin
1.35
Arminia Bielefeld
1.38
FC St. Pauli
1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.44
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
Regensburg
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.62
Duisburg
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.65
Erzgebirge Aue is 0.12 goals worse than Ingolstadt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
For 4.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
For 5.4 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.2
1.9
2.0
1.8
29.5
29.5
29.5
vs Stronger (31)
9.2
9.7
8.4
1.5
1.8
1.2
28.8
29.0
28.6
vs Similar (19)
10.1
10.2
10.0
2.5
2.4
2.6
30.4
30.5
30.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
73%
30%
34%
35%
33%
90%
100%
80%
% under line
48%
27%
70%
66%
65%
67%
10%
0%
20%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.7
8.8
4.3
3.9
4.6
31.4
30.9
32.0
vs Stronger (41)
9.0
9.5
8.6
4.1
3.9
4.4
31.9
31.3
32.4
vs Similar (9)
10.2
10.6
9.8
4.9
4.2
5.8
29.6
29.2
30.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
48%
32%
64%
48%
80%
94%
92%
96%
% under line
60%
52%
68%
36%
52%
20%
6%
8%
4%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Heidenheim
10.2
SV Darmstadt 98
10.2
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.0
FC St. Pauli
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
1. FC Nürnberg
9.9
Union Berlin
9.7
Erzgebirge Aue
9.6
Regensburg
9.5
VfL Bochum
9.4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.3
Dynamo Dresden
9.3
Holstein Kiel
9.3
Ingolstadt
9.3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
9.2
SV Sandhausen
8.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
8.5
Duisburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.4
Holstein Kiel
5.3
Regensburg
5.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.8
1. FC Heidenheim
4.8
SV Sandhausen
4.8
Erzgebirge Aue
4.6
Duisburg
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.3
Ingolstadt
4.3
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
VfL Bochum
4.0
FC St. Pauli
4.0
Union Berlin
3.8
1. FC Nürnberg
3.7
Arminia Bielefeld
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
34.3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
32.9
Regensburg
31.9
Ingolstadt
31.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
30.8
Holstein Kiel
30.5
1. FC Heidenheim
30.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
30.1
SV Darmstadt 98
29.6
Erzgebirge Aue
29.5
Eintracht Braunschweig
29.2
Union Berlin
29.0
Dynamo Dresden
28.2
VfL Bochum
28.0
Duisburg
27.6
FC St. Pauli
26.1
Arminia Bielefeld
26.1
1. FC Nürnberg
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.8%
Under 9.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.9%
Under 3.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.7%
Under 21.5
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.75
0.44
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.22
0.78
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
1.17
0.33
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (21)
0.76
0.48
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.55
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.56
0.20
0.60
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.56
0.62
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
0.79
0.60
0.70
0.67
0.89
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.00
0.87
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (21)
0.81
0.52
1.10
0.60
0.55
0.45
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.33
0.80
1.40
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
1FK (26)
€28m
SD9 (28)
€24m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Erzgebirge Aue's squad is €5m less valuable than Ingolstadt's (€2m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (10)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's attack is €2m less valuable than Ingolstadt's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (6)
€26m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue and Ingolstadt have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Erzgebirge Aue's defence is €2m less valuable than Ingolstadt's (€1m vs €3m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Duisburg
Union Berlin
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Sandhausen
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Eintracht Braunschweig
1. FC Kaiserslautern