Erzurumspor FK’s attacking rhythm, averaging 2.38 goals per home game against similarly strong opposition, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Keçiörengücü’s 2.36 away goals per match hint at a lively contest. The model projects a 60% chance of a home win, 21% for a draw, and 19% for an away victory, with the most likely outcome being a 2-1 win for Erzurumspor FK, a 9.6% probability. The expected total of 3.5 goals aligns with the 22% chance of exactly three goals falling. The match is favoured as a home win, and the average goals conceded by Keçiörengücü (1.55) versus Erzurumspor’s 0.69 suggest a defensive edge for the hosts. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 6.5 (93.4%), Home +2 handicap (92.1%), Over 2.5 cards (90.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.6%), Over 1.5 (87.3%), and Away under 2.5 goals (87.0%). Each selection carries its own probability, with the model’s favoured result remaining a home win.
Results analysis
Erzurumspor FK’s recent form, still rattled after two straight defeats, saw them rebound to win 4-2 over Keçiörengücü, extending their run. The model’s favourite, a home win at 60%, was correct. The final score of 4-2 matched the actual result, confirming the prediction. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 hit with 97.3%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.3%; Under 6.5 hit at 93.4%; Home +2 handicap hit at 92.1%; Home over 0.5 goals hit at 89.6%; Over 1.5 hit at 87.3%; and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 87.0%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and every pick was accounted for.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Erzurumspor FK win✓ Hit
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Erzurumspor FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.80
2.50
0.64
1.75
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
2.11
0.74
2.38
0.69
1.86
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keçiörengücü
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.47
2.06
1.19
1.93
1.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.40
1.50
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (25)
2.24
1.28
2.14
1.07
2.36
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzurumspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7.2%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
Erzurumspor FK goals ↓
Keçiörengücü goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
2.9%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
1
6.0%
9.3%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
2
7.7%
9.6%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.8%
7.2%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
4
3.3%
4.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Erzurumspor FK goals (down), columns = Keçiörengücü goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
İstanbulspor
2.50
Bursaspor
2.50
Göztepe
2.50
Etimesgut SK
2.40
Konyaspor
2.38
Bayburt İÖİ
2.33
Galatasaray
2.33
Muş Sport Klübü
2.33
Fenerbahçe
2.25
Beşiktaş
2.25
Kocaelispor
2.25
Çorluspor 1947
2.25
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
2.25
Trabzonspor
2.17
Hatayspor
2.00
Fatih Karagümrük
2.00
Bodrum FK
2.00
Yeni Orduspor
2.00
Alanyaspor
2.00
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor
2.00
Tire 2021 FK
2.00
Karaman FK
2.00
Karacabey Belediyespor
2.00
Kilis Belediyespor
2.00
Osmaniyespor
2.00
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
2.00
Düzcespor
2.00
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
2.00
Kırklarelispor
1.86
Ankaragücü
1.83
İskenderunspor
1.83
Gaziantep FK
1.80
Rizespor
1.80
Eyüpspor
1.75
Başakşehir
1.67
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.50
Keçiörengücü
1.50
Serik Spor
1.50
Ümraniyespor
1.50
Esenler Erokspor
1.50
Adana Demirspor
1.50
Pazarspor
1.50
İnegölspor
1.50
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
1.50
Sebat Gençlikspor
1.50
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.50
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.50
Amed
1.50
Çorum FK
1.50
Mardin 1969
1.50
Niğde Belediyesispor
1.50
Nilüfer Belediye
1.50
Silivrispor
1.50
Amasyaspor 1968
1.50
Uşak Spor
1.50
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.50
Güzide Gebzespor
1.50
Kütahyaspor
1.50
1461 Trabzon FK
1.50
Ağrı 1970
1.50
Ayvalikgucu
1.50
Alanya 1221 FK
1.50
Menemen FK
1.50
Adana 01 FK
1.50
Batman Petrolspor
1.50
Zonguldak Kömürspor
1.50
Kahramanmaraşspor
1.50
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.50
Isparta 32 Spor
1.50
Elazığspor
1.50
Anadolu Üniversitesi
1.50
Somaspor
1.50
Bucaspor 1928
1.50
24 Erzincanspor
1.50
Kastamonuspor
1.50
Antalyaspor
1.40
Sarıyer
1.33
Fethiyespor
1.33
Ankara Demirspor
1.33
Erzurumspor FK
1.20
Eskisehirspor
1.01
Kestel Çilek
1.01
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
1.01
Kahta 02 Spor
1.01
1926 Bulancak
1.01
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.01
Galata
1.01
İnkılapspor
1.01
Şiran
1.01
Kapadokyaspor
1.01
Bilecik Sogut
1.01
Denizli İYG
1.01
Ezinespor
1.01
Muğlaspor
1.00
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
1.00
Sivasspor
0.75
Boluspor
0.75
Kasımpaşa
0.75
Vanspor FK
0.50
Samsunspor
0.50
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
0.50
Kepezspor
0.50
Karsiyaka
0.50
Adanaspor
0.00
Kayserispor
0.00
Sakaryaspor
0.00
Pendikspor
0.00
Bandırmaspor
0.00
Manisa F.K.
0.00
Beykoz Anadolu
0.00
Giresunspor
0.00
Altay
0.00
Silifke Belediyespor
0.00
Balıkesirspor
0.00
Çankaya FK
0.00
Erbaaspor
0.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
0.00
Orduspor 1967
0.00
Kartal Bulvarspor
0.00
Afjet Afyonspor
0.00
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
0.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
0.00
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.00
Iğdır FK
0.00
Altınordu
0.00
Şanlıurfaspor
0.00
Beykoz İshaklıspor
0.00
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
0.00
Edirnespor
0.00
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
0.00
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.00
Kurtalanspor
0.00
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.00
Karabük İdman Yurdu
0.00
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
0.00
Ankaraspor
0.00
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
0.00
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.00
Dersimspor
0.00
Bornova 1877
0.00
12 Bingölspor
0.00
Aliağa FAŞ
0.00
Kars 36
0.00
Söke 1970
0.00
Serhat Ardahanspor
0.00
Türk Metal 1963
0.00
1074 Çankırıspor
0.00
Sinopspor
0.00
Nazilli Spor
0.00
Artvin Hopaspor
0.00
Diyarbekirspor
0.00
Bartınspor
0.00
1926 Polatlı Belediye
0.00
Çayelispor
0.00
Hakkari Zapspor
0.00
Erzurumspor FK is 0.30 points worse than Keçiörengücü in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor
3.67
24 Erzincanspor
3.50
Fenerbahçe
3.25
Bodrum FK
3.20
Hatayspor
3.00
Sebat Gençlikspor
3.00
Mardin 1969
3.00
Altınordu
3.00
Nilüfer Belediye
3.00
Silivrispor
3.00
Konyaspor
2.75
Çorluspor 1947
2.75
Galatasaray
2.67
Rizespor
2.60
İstanbulspor
2.50
Keçiörengücü
2.50
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
2.50
Trabzonspor
2.50
Kocaelispor
2.50
Menemen FK
2.50
Somaspor
2.50
Alanyaspor
2.40
Göztepe
2.33
Osmaniyespor
2.33
Çorum FK
2.25
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
2.25
Kırklarelispor
2.14
Kayserispor
2.00
Bandırmaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Ümraniyespor
2.00
Başakşehir
2.00
Adana Demirspor
2.00
Muğlaspor
2.00
Antalyaspor
2.00
Erbaaspor
2.00
Iğdır FK
2.00
Beykoz İshaklıspor
2.00
Karacabey Belediyespor
2.00
Amasyaspor 1968
2.00
Uşak Spor
2.00
Muş Sport Klübü
2.00
Ağrı 1970
2.00
Ayvalikgucu
2.00
Aliağa FAŞ
2.00
Zonguldak Kömürspor
2.00
Düzcespor
2.00
Anadolu Üniversitesi
2.00
Kastamonuspor
2.00
1926 Polatlı Belediye
2.00
Ankaragücü
1.83
Bursaspor
1.75
Yeni Orduspor
1.67
Tire 2021 FK
1.67
Kilis Belediyespor
1.67
İskenderunspor
1.67
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
1.67
Fethiyespor
1.67
Ankara Demirspor
1.67
Gaziantep FK
1.60
Etimesgut SK
1.60
Boluspor
1.50
Eyüpspor
1.50
Esenler Erokspor
1.50
Beşiktaş
1.50
Fatih Karagümrük
1.50
Pazarspor
1.50
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.50
Amed
1.50
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.50
Güzide Gebzespor
1.50
1461 Trabzon FK
1.50
Alanya 1221 FK
1.50
Isparta 32 Spor
1.50
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
1.50
Bayburt İÖİ
1.33
Eskisehirspor
1.29
Kestel Çilek
1.29
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
1.29
Kahta 02 Spor
1.29
1926 Bulancak
1.29
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.29
Galata
1.29
İnkılapspor
1.29
Şiran
1.29
Kapadokyaspor
1.29
Bilecik Sogut
1.29
Denizli İYG
1.29
Ezinespor
1.29
Sarıyer
1.00
Adanaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
1.00
Erzurumspor FK
1.00
Silifke Belediyespor
1.00
Orduspor 1967
1.00
İnegölspor
1.00
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.00
Samsunspor
1.00
Karaman FK
1.00
Kurtalanspor
1.00
Ankaraspor
1.00
Adana 01 FK
1.00
Kars 36
1.00
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.00
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
1.00
Elazığspor
1.00
Söke 1970
1.00
Bucaspor 1928
1.00
Türk Metal 1963
1.00
1074 Çankırıspor
1.00
Nazilli Spor
1.00
Artvin Hopaspor
1.00
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0.50
Serik Spor
0.50
Niğde Belediyesispor
0.50
Kütahyaspor
0.50
Karsiyaka
0.50
Batman Petrolspor
0.50
Kahramanmaraşspor
0.50
Kasımpaşa
0.25
Sakaryaspor
0.00
Beykoz Anadolu
0.00
Giresunspor
0.00
Altay
0.00
Balıkesirspor
0.00
Çankaya FK
0.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
0.00
Kartal Bulvarspor
0.00
Afjet Afyonspor
0.00
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
0.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
0.00
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.00
Şanlıurfaspor
0.00
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
0.00
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
0.00
Edirnespor
0.00
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
0.00
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.00
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.00
Karabük İdman Yurdu
0.00
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
0.00
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
0.00
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.00
Kepezspor
0.00
Dersimspor
0.00
Bornova 1877
0.00
12 Bingölspor
0.00
Serhat Ardahanspor
0.00
Sinopspor
0.00
Diyarbekirspor
0.00
Bartınspor
0.00
Çayelispor
0.00
Hakkari Zapspor
0.00
Erzurumspor FK is 1.50 goals worse than Keçiörengücü in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bayburt İÖİ
0.00
Hatayspor
0.33
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0.50
Göztepe
0.50
Niğde Belediyesispor
0.50
Uşak Spor
0.50
Kütahyaspor
0.50
Ağrı 1970
0.50
Batman Petrolspor
0.50
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
0.50
Fenerbahçe
0.75
Bursaspor
0.75
Konyaspor
0.75
Galatasaray
0.83
Eyüpspor
1.00
Esenler Erokspor
1.00
Beşiktaş
1.00
Başakşehir
1.00
Gaziantep FK
1.00
Giresunspor
1.00
Altay
1.00
Pazarspor
1.00
Çankaya FK
1.00
Kartal Bulvarspor
1.00
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
1.00
İnegölspor
1.00
Şanlıurfaspor
1.00
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
1.00
Karaman FK
1.00
Karacabey Belediyespor
1.00
Edirnespor
1.00
Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.00
Güzide Gebzespor
1.00
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1.00
Karsiyaka
1.00
Adana 01 FK
1.00
Düzcespor
1.00
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
1.00
Somaspor
1.00
Diyarbekirspor
1.00
Fatih Karagümrük
1.17
Etimesgut SK
1.20
Kırklarelispor
1.29
İstanbulspor
1.33
Yeni Orduspor
1.33
Tire 2021 FK
1.33
Kilis Belediyespor
1.33
Muş Sport Klübü
1.33
İskenderunspor
1.33
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
1.33
Ankara Demirspor
1.33
Sivasspor
1.50
Ankaragücü
1.50
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
1.50
Trabzonspor
1.50
Amed
1.50
Kocaelispor
1.50
Çorluspor 1947
1.50
Nilüfer Belediye
1.50
Amasyaspor 1968
1.50
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.50
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.50
Menemen FK
1.50
Kahramanmaraşspor
1.50
Isparta 32 Spor
1.50
Elazığspor
1.50
Antalyaspor
1.60
Alanyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.67
Osmaniyespor
1.67
Boluspor
1.75
Bodrum FK
1.80
Rizespor
1.80
Eskisehirspor
1.90
Kestel Çilek
1.90
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
1.90
Kahta 02 Spor
1.90
1926 Bulancak
1.90
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.90
Galata
1.90
İnkılapspor
1.90
Şiran
1.90
Kapadokyaspor
1.90
Bilecik Sogut
1.90
Denizli İYG
1.90
Ezinespor
1.90
Adanaspor
2.00
Sakaryaspor
2.00
Pendikspor
2.00
Ümraniyespor
2.00
Muğlaspor
2.00
Silifke Belediyespor
2.00
Balıkesirspor
2.00
Orduspor 1967
2.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
2.00
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
2.00
Sebat Gençlikspor
2.00
Talasgücü Belediyespor
2.00
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
2.00
Samsunspor
2.00
Mardin 1969
2.00
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
2.00
Yeni Malatyaspor
2.00
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
2.00
Ankaraspor
2.00
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
2.00
Ayvalikgucu
2.00
Bornova 1877
2.00
12 Bingölspor
2.00
Fethiyespor
2.00
Zonguldak Kömürspor
2.00
Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.00
Söke 1970
2.00
Anadolu Üniversitesi
2.00
Serhat Ardahanspor
2.00
1074 Çankırıspor
2.00
Sinopspor
2.00
Bartınspor
2.00
Çayelispor
2.00
Hakkari Zapspor
2.00
Erzurumspor FK
2.20
Kasımpaşa
2.50
Adana Demirspor
2.50
Çorum FK
2.50
Silivrispor
2.50
1461 Trabzon FK
2.50
Alanya 1221 FK
2.50
Bucaspor 1928
2.50
Bandırmaspor
3.00
Keçiörengücü
3.00
Serik Spor
3.00
Beykoz Anadolu
3.00
Erbaaspor
3.00
Iğdır FK
3.00
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor
3.00
Aliağa FAŞ
3.00
Kars 36
3.00
24 Erzincanspor
3.00
Türk Metal 1963
3.00
Artvin Hopaspor
3.00
1926 Polatlı Belediye
3.00
Kastamonuspor
3.50
Kayserispor
4.00
Manisa F.K.
4.00
Vanspor FK
4.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
4.00
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
4.00
Kurtalanspor
4.00
Karabük İdman Yurdu
4.00
Kepezspor
4.50
Afjet Afyonspor
5.00
Nazilli Spor
5.00
Beykoz İshaklıspor
6.00
Altınordu
7.00
Dersimspor
7.00
Erzurumspor FK is 0.80 goals better than Keçiörengücü in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Trabzonspor
61%
Galatasaray
54%
Beşiktaş
52%
Fenerbahçe
51%
Göztepe
44%
Konyaspor
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Erzurumspor FK
For 3.7 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Keçiörengücü
For 4.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzurumspor FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.6
8.7
4.7
4.8
4.7
25.7
24.2
26.9
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
8.7
8.8
8.6
5.0
4.9
5.0
25.9
24.6
27.1
vs Weaker (5)
7.8
3.0
9.0
3.4
2.0
3.8
23.8
16.0
25.8
% over line
42%
38%
46%
70%
65%
74%
71%
71%
71%
% under line
58%
62%
54%
30%
35%
26%
29%
29%
29%
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keçiörengücü
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.2
8.2
4.3
4.6
4.0
23.9
24.1
23.7
vs Stronger (8)
6.1
6.0
6.2
4.6
6.0
3.8
22.6
24.3
21.2
vs Similar (41)
8.6
8.5
8.7
4.4
4.6
4.1
24.4
24.5
24.2
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
0.0
0.0
-
16.0
16.0
-
% over line
31%
26%
36%
62%
69%
54%
82%
83%
82%
% under line
69%
74%
64%
38%
31%
46%
18%
17%
18%
This opponent (Erzurumspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.3
Kayserispor
10.3
Konyaspor
9.8
Yeni Malatyaspor
9.8
Kasımpaşa
9.7
Beşiktaş
9.7
Adanaspor
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.6
Eyüpspor
9.6
Giresunspor
9.6
Adana Demirspor
9.6
Göztepe
9.5
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.5
Trabzonspor
9.5
Rizespor
9.5
Bandırmaspor
9.5
Başakşehir
9.4
Hatayspor
9.4
Iğdır FK
9.4
Antalyaspor
9.4
Galatasaray
9.3
Samsunspor
9.2
Sivasspor
9.2
Bodrum FK
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Fatih Karagümrük
9.1
Çorum FK
9.0
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Beykoz Anadolu
8.8
İstanbulspor
8.8
Serik Spor
8.8
Esenler Erokspor
8.7
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Pendikspor
8.6
Ankaragücü
8.6
Altınordu
8.6
Altay
8.6
Keçiörengücü
8.6
Sakaryaspor
8.5
Alanyaspor
8.4
Şanlıurfaspor
8.4
Erzurumspor FK
8.3
Sarıyer
8.3
Amed
8.3
Kocaelispor
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.0
Boluspor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.2
Fenerbahçe
5.7
Başakşehir
5.4
Konyaspor
5.4
Alanyaspor
5.4
Vanspor FK
5.4
Sakaryaspor
5.4
Boluspor
5.4
Sarıyer
5.4
Sivasspor
5.4
Erzurumspor FK
5.3
Pendikspor
5.3
Çorum FK
5.2
Amed
5.2
Keçiörengücü
5.2
Bandırmaspor
5.2
Fatih Karagümrük
5.2
Hatayspor
5.2
Adanaspor
5.1
Kasımpaşa
5.1
Rizespor
5.1
Eyüpspor
5.0
Kayserispor
4.9
Esenler Erokspor
4.9
Beşiktaş
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.9
Beykoz Anadolu
4.8
Altay
4.8
Iğdır FK
4.8
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.7
Manisa F.K.
4.7
Bursaspor
4.7
Göztepe
4.7
Ümraniyespor
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
İstanbulspor
4.6
Antalyaspor
4.6
Trabzonspor
4.5
Ankaragücü
4.5
Samsunspor
4.4
Serik Spor
4.4
Şanlıurfaspor
4.3
Adana Demirspor
4.3
Yeni Malatyaspor
4.3
Altınordu
4.2
Bodrum FK
4.1
Giresunspor
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bursaspor
30.1
Fatih Karagümrük
28.9
Vanspor FK
28.6
Gaziantep FK
28.3
Altay
27.8
Başakşehir
27.6
Kasımpaşa
27.4
Altınordu
27.1
Alanyaspor
26.9
Antalyaspor
26.7
Boluspor
26.6
Pendikspor
26.5
Rizespor
26.3
Sakaryaspor
26.3
Beykoz Anadolu
26.2
Trabzonspor
26.2
Kocaelispor
26.2
Göztepe
25.9
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.7
Konyaspor
25.6
Erzurumspor FK
25.6
Eyüpspor
25.5
Yeni Malatyaspor
25.3
Fenerbahçe
25.2
Beşiktaş
25.1
Adanaspor
24.9
Kayserispor
24.7
Bandırmaspor
24.6
Ümraniyespor
24.4
Samsunspor
24.4
Iğdır FK
24.4
Sivasspor
24.3
Manisa F.K.
24.2
Galatasaray
24.1
Bodrum FK
23.9
Şanlıurfaspor
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.8
Çorum FK
23.6
Ankaragücü
23.5
Sarıyer
23.4
Esenler Erokspor
23.3
Serik Spor
23.1
İstanbulspor
23.1
Hatayspor
23.0
Giresunspor
22.8
Amed
22.7
Adana Demirspor
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.1%
Under 3.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Erzurumspor FK or Draw✓ Hit
80.9%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
19%
covers Erzurumspor FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK or Keçiörengücü✓ Hit
78.7%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
19%
covers Erzurumspor FK + Keçiörengücü
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Keçiörengücü✗ Miss
40.4%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
19%
covers Draw + Keçiörengücü
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.6%
Under
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Erzurumspor FK, so a minus line means Erzurumspor FK give that many goals of a start and Keçiörengücü receive them. At -1, Erzurumspor FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Erzurumspor FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Erzurumspor FK)Actual: Draw
Erzurumspor FK -2
20.4%
Draw -2
18.0%
Keçiörengücü +2
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Erzurumspor FK)Actual: Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK -1
38.4%
Draw -1
21.2%
Keçiörengücü +1
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Erzurumspor FK)Actual: Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK +1
80.9%
Draw +1
11.2%
Keçiörengücü -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Erzurumspor FK)Actual: Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.4%
Keçiörengücü -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Erzurumspor FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.86
0.07
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.30
0.77
0.08
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keçiörengücü
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.25
0.44
1.21
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (25)
1.40
0.56
1.29
0.29
1.55
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzurumspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Erzurumspor FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.50
1.64
0.57
1.19
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.44
0.44
1.62
0.62
1.29
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Keçiörengücü
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.81
0.75
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.72
0.86
0.79
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzurumspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzurumspor FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
SAK (17)
€2m
HAT (16)
€2m
AD (23)
€2m
SS (19)
€1m
Erzurumspor FK's squad is €19m more valuable than Keçiörengücü's (€26m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
BUR (10)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
BF (10)
€6m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
GS (4)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
SAK (6)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
AD (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€0m
HAT (4)
€0m
Erzurumspor FK's attack is €8m more valuable than Keçiörengücü's (€10m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
BUR (5)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
AME (4)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
SAK (6)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
SS (5)
€0m
AD (4)
€0m
HAT (3)
€0m
Erzurumspor FK's midfield is €5m more valuable than Keçiörengücü's (€7m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
ANT (11)
€7m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
HAT (9)
€1m
AD (12)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
SAK (5)
€0m
Erzurumspor FK's defence is €6m more valuable than Keçiörengücü's (€8m vs €3m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →