Esenler Erokspor, coming off a draw, are looking to build on their recent form against Çorum FK, who are on a 2-game winning run. However, the model predicts a home win, with a 43% probability, slightly ahead of a draw at 29% and an away win at 28%. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.6 goals, and the most likely total number of goals is 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability. Esenler Erokspor have been scoring an average of 3 goals at home and conceding 1, while they've struggled against Çorum FK's away form, conceding 1.17 goals on average. Çorum FK have been scoring 1.5 goals away from home and conceding 1. The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 74.6% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 73.6% probability. The model predicts a home win, with Esenler Erokspor winning 43% of the time, a draw 29% of the time, and Çorum FK winning 28% of the time.
Results analysis
The away team, Çorum FK, pulled off a stunning upset with a 0-2 win over the home team, Esenler Erokspor, ending their 5-game unbeaten run. This extends Çorum FK's winning streak to 3 games. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was wrong. The model had predicted a home win with a 43% probability.
The model's selection, home win, was incorrect. Çorum FK's away form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning run. The model's suggested picks were correct, with both 'Under 3.5' and 'Over 1.5' hitting, with probabilities of 74.6% and 73.6% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esenler Erokspor win✗ Miss
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK win✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esenler Erokspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.93
1.67
1.00
2.20
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.67
1.04
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
4.33
0.00
-
-
4.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.10
1.75
1.00
1.21
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.38
1.14
1.43
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (17)
2.06
0.88
2.22
0.67
1.88
1.12
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.0%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.0%
Esenler Erokspor goals ↓
Çorum FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
7.4%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10.0%
14%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.0%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esenler Erokspor goals (down), columns = Çorum FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.13
Amed
1.95
Çorum FK
1.90
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Pendikspor
1.62
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Manisa F.K.
1.45
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sarıyer
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Serik Spor
1.03
Sakaryaspor
0.92
Hatayspor
0.37
Adana Demirspor
0.16
Esenler Erokspor is 0.01 points worse than Çorum FK in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.16
Amed
2.13
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Boluspor
1.61
Çorum FK
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.50
İstanbulspor
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Vanspor FK
1.37
Iğdır FK
1.37
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Sakaryaspor
1.22
Sivasspor
1.19
Serik Spor
1.16
Sarıyer
1.16
Hatayspor
0.87
Adana Demirspor
0.58
Esenler Erokspor is 0.48 goals better than Çorum FK in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Erzurumspor FK
0.71
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Çorum FK
0.95
Bodrum FK
0.98
Amed
1.11
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Boluspor
1.50
Sakaryaspor
1.86
Serik Spor
1.97
Hatayspor
2.68
Adana Demirspor
4.45
Esenler Erokspor is 0.00 goals better than Çorum FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Çorum FK
59%
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Erzurumspor FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Amed
53%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Sakaryaspor
47%
Hatayspor
46%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Serik Spor
41%
Adana Demirspor
38%
Esenler Erokspor is 1.2 percentage points worse than Çorum FK in terms of average possession (58% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Esenler Erokspor
For 6.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Çorum FK
For 7.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Esenler Erokspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.0
8.3
4.7
3.7
5.8
22.7
22.4
23.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
8.8
9.2
8.4
4.9
3.5
6.3
23.1
22.7
23.6
vs Weaker (8)
7.6
7.5
7.8
3.8
4.2
3.2
20.5
20.8
20.2
% over line
33%
38%
29%
72%
62%
83%
65%
62%
67%
% under line
67%
62%
71%
28%
38%
17%
35%
38%
33%
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.0
8.5
4.8
4.8
4.8
23.0
22.0
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.1
10.2
9.9
5.9
6.7
5.2
22.8
21.6
23.8
vs Weaker (32)
8.8
9.8
7.7
4.2
3.8
4.6
23.2
22.1
24.3
% over line
48%
62%
33%
72%
62%
83%
60%
50%
71%
% under line
52%
38%
67%
28%
38%
17%
40%
50%
29%
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sivasspor
9.5
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Iğdır FK
9.2
Adana Demirspor
9.1
Çorum FK
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Amed
9.0
Bodrum FK
9.0
Serik Spor
8.9
Hatayspor
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Sakaryaspor
8.6
Esenler Erokspor
8.6
Erzurumspor FK
8.6
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.4
Vanspor FK
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Sarıyer
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sakaryaspor
5.2
Vanspor FK
5.2
Pendikspor
5.2
Çorum FK
5.2
Boluspor
5.1
Erzurumspor FK
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Amed
5.1
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Hatayspor
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.9
Keçiörengücü
4.9
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.6
Ümraniyespor
4.5
Serik Spor
4.4
Bodrum FK
4.1
Adana Demirspor
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vanspor FK
28.3
Pendikspor
26.6
Boluspor
25.8
Sakaryaspor
25.4
Bodrum FK
24.2
Erzurumspor FK
24.1
Keçiörengücü
23.8
Hatayspor
23.7
Bandırmaspor
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Serik Spor
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.3
Sarıyer
23.3
Sivasspor
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.2
Iğdır FK
23.2
Çorum FK
23.1
Esenler Erokspor
22.7
Amed
22.2
Adana Demirspor
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
40.7%
Under 9.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.2%
Under 3.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.4%
Under 21.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Esenler Erokspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.56
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
-
-
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esenler Erokspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.43
1.07
0.33
1.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.04
0.48
1.07
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Çorum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Çorum FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.12
0.38
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.62
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.41
1.56
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Çorum FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (35)
€18m
IF (38)
€14m
EF (29)
€13m
MF (27)
€12m
SIV (25)
€11m
AME (26)
€11m
İST (37)
€11m
ÇF (32)
€10m
SS (44)
€10m
VF (31)
€10m
EE (25)
€10m
PEN (23)
€9m
BAN (29)
€9m
HAT (38)
€8m
ÜMR (26)
€8m
BOL (28)
€8m
SAK (30)
€8m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
AD (30)
€3m
Esenler Erokspor and Çorum FK have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (14)
€9m
ÇF (13)
€6m
SIV (7)
€5m
VF (13)
€5m
SAK (12)
€5m
AME (8)
€4m
IF (14)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (12)
€4m
EE (9)
€4m
BAN (10)
€4m
EF (10)
€4m
HAT (15)
€4m
ÜMR (6)
€3m
SS (16)
€3m
PEN (7)
€3m
BOL (8)
€3m
SAR (7)
€2m
KEÇ (8)
€2m
AD (11)
€1m
Esenler Erokspor's attack is €2m less valuable than Çorum FK's (€4m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€4m
EF (5)
€4m
BF (8)
€3m
AME (7)
€3m
VF (6)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (6)
€2m
PEN (6)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
HAT (8)
€2m
BOL (8)
€2m
SS (10)
€2m
İST (8)
€2m
BAN (5)
€2m
SAK (6)
€2m
KEÇ (6)
€1m
ÇF (5)
€1m
EE (5)
€1m
SAR (4)
€1m
AD (5)
€0m
Esenler Erokspor and Çorum FK have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (13)
€6m
IF (15)
€5m
SS (18)
€5m
EF (14)
€5m
İST (17)
€5m
MF (10)
€5m
EE (11)
€5m
SIV (12)
€4m
AME (11)
€4m
BOL (12)
€3m
PEN (10)
€3m
ÇF (14)
€3m
ÜMR (13)
€3m
BAN (14)
€3m
HAT (15)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
VF (12)
€2m
SAK (12)
€2m
AD (14)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
Esenler Erokspor's defence is €1m more valuable than Çorum FK's (€5m vs €3m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
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