Esenler Erokspor’s recent slump, ending with a loss to İdirdir FK, contrasts with Kayserispor’s five-game winning streak that ended in a 1-2 defeat to Bursaspor, yet the model still favours a home win at 40%. The draw probability sits at 33% and the away win at 28%. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% chance. Esenler averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.13 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, while Kayserispor averages 0.7 scored and 1.0 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5% with an 8% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8% with an 8% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6% with an 8% edge), Under 5.5 (98.1% with a 10% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 7% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6% with a 7% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Esenler Erokspor win
38.4%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.15
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.30
Dafabet
2.17
Betano
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Draw
33.1%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.37
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.47
Dafabet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Kayserispor win
28.5%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.01
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
3.10
Betano
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Dafabet
3.05
1xBet
3.04
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Esenler Erokspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.93
1.20
1.13
2.13
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.67
0.93
1.20
1.13
2.13
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
1.07
1.50
0.69
1.38
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.62
0.33
3.33
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.00
1.27
1.00
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.6%
@ 1.23-13.0%
Under 1.5
38.4%
@ 3.60+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
3.83
BetVictor
3.80
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Betano
3.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.2%
@ 1.75-19.5%
Under 2.5
66.8%
@ 1.96+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
BetVictor
1.97
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.8%
@ 2.83-17.6%
Under 3.5
85.2%
@ 1.35+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Betano
2.77
Marathonbet
2.74
Under
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
41.7%
@ 1.62-15.3%
No
58.3%
@ 2.14+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
No
William Hil
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 6.01+7.5%
0-0
14.5%@ 10.38+10.3%
1-0
13.2%@ 7.92+7.8%
0-1
10.7%@ 9.99+6.4%
2-0
8.1%@ 10.29+3.9%
2-1
7.4%@ 7.84+1.9%
1-2
6.2%@ 9.57+1.6%
0-2
5.6%@ 14.96+2.6%
Esenler Erokspor goals ↓
Kayserispor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.1%
7.4%
3.4%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.0%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Esenler Erokspor goals (down), columns = Kayserispor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Esenler Erokspor is 1.20 points worse than Kayserispor in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Esenler Erokspor is 1.00 goals worse than Kayserispor in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Esenler Erokspor and Kayserispor are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Esenler Erokspor is 7.4 percentage points better than Kayserispor in terms of average possession (61% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Esenler Erokspor
For 4.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kayserispor
For 5.8 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Esenler Erokspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.0
8.5
4.7
3.8
5.6
23.2
22.5
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
8.8
9.0
8.5
4.7
3.8
5.6
23.2
22.5
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
42%
33%
74%
65%
83%
67%
62%
71%
% under line
62%
58%
67%
26%
35%
17%
33%
38%
29%
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.3
4.3
4.2
24.8
25.2
24.4
vs Stronger (17)
11.1
11.0
11.1
4.2
4.6
4.0
23.6
24.3
23.1
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.5
9.5
4.3
4.2
4.4
25.5
25.6
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
65%
64%
68%
71%
65%
75%
78%
72%
% under line
35%
35%
36%
32%
29%
35%
25%
22%
28%
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.5
Antalyaspor
9.1
Bursaspor
9.1
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Iğdır FK
9.0
Bodrum FK
8.9
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Mardin 1969
8.6
İstanbulspor
8.4
Pendikspor
8.4
Boluspor
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Batman Petrolspor
8.0
Sarıyer
7.8
Muğlaspor
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Muğlaspor
6.8
Batman Petrolspor
5.8
Antalyaspor
5.3
Pendikspor
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Vanspor FK
5.1
Boluspor
5.1
Manisa F.K.
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.9
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.7
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.6
Bursaspor
4.5
Fatih Karagümrük
4.3
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Bodrum FK
4.2
Mardin 1969
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
30.8
Bursaspor
28.9
Fatih Karagümrük
28.7
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.4
Pendikspor
26.5
Batman Petrolspor
26.2
Mardin 1969
25.6
Boluspor
25.6
Kayserispor
24.8
Bandırmaspor
24.2
Bodrum FK
23.9
Iğdır FK
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.7
Sivasspor
23.7
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Sarıyer
23.4
Ümraniyespor
23.2
İstanbulspor
23.1
Esenler Erokspor
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.7%
Under 9.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.6%
Under 3.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.1%
Under 21.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Esenler Erokspor or Draw
71.5%
Avg Implied 69.5% · @ 1.32
Edge
+2.0%
38%
33%
29%
covers Esenler Erokspor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Esenler Erokspor or Kayserispor
66.9%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.26
Edge
-6.2%
38%
33%
29%
covers Esenler Erokspor + Kayserispor
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw or Kayserispor
61.6%
Avg Implied 57.4% · @ 1.60
Edge
+4.2%
38%
33%
29%
covers Draw + Kayserispor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.65
BetVictor
1.62
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.59
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
@ 1.20-9.8%
Under
32.9%
@ 4.00+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.05
Betano
3.95
Marathonbet
3.48
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5
Over
30.5%
@ 2.02-15.2%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.70+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
@ 4.15-12.0%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.18+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Esenler Erokspor over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 8.75-8.1%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.05+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Kayserispor over/under 0.5
Over
60.1%
@ 1.31-10.5%
Under
39.9%
@ 3.14+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.08
Kayserispor over/under 1.5
Over
23.5%
@ 2.51-13.3%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.46+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.44
Kayserispor over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
@ 5.72-9.4%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.09+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Kayserispor over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
@ 10.50-7.5%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.03+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Esenler Erokspor, so a minus line means Esenler Erokspor give that many goals of a start and Kayserispor receive them. At -1, Esenler Erokspor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Esenler Erokspor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Esenler Erokspor)
Esenler Erokspor -2
5.1%
@ 8.60-5.2%
Draw -2
11.2%
@ 6.22-3.0%
Kayserispor +2
83.6%
@ 1.18+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
7.70
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
5.95
Away
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Esenler Erokspor)
Esenler Erokspor -1
16.4%
@ 3.86-5.6%
Draw -1
22.1%
@ 3.61-1.4%
Kayserispor +1
61.6%
@ 1.55+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Unibet
3.75
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.35
Away
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.45
Handicap +1 (Esenler Erokspor)
Esenler Erokspor +1
71.5%
@ 1.31+7.7%
Draw +1
18.0%
@ 4.10-2.3%
Kayserispor -1
10.5%
@ 5.28-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.29
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
5.95
Unibet
4.60
Handicap +2 (Esenler Erokspor)
Esenler Erokspor +2
89.5%
Draw +2
7.7%
Kayserispor -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Esenler Erokspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.73
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.73
0.73
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.60
0.36
0.57
0.12
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.12
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.41
0.45
0.36
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.5%
@ 1.33-3.0%
Under 0.5
33.5%
@ 3.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
William Hil
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
2.91
Marathonbet
2.91
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.2%
@ 2.55-4.8%
Under 1.5
68.8%
@ 1.44+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
BetVictor
1.46
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 6.03-5.0%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.09+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.2%
@ 1.84-4.0%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.86+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
@ 5.28-6.9%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.12+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 10.00-7.4%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.9%
@ 2.15+6.0%
Under
51.1%
@ 1.61-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.1%
@ 6.90-3.3%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.06+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.00
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
@ 11.25-6.5%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Esenler Erokspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.40
0.73
0.40
1.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
0.40
0.73
0.40
1.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.71
0.93
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.33
2.00
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.59
0.82
0.64
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Esenler Erokspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.19-1.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 3.99+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
Betano
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.98
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 1.94-9.1%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.77+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 3.84-9.6%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.20+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Esenler Erokspor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.3%
@ 1.61-9.0%
Under
51.7%
@ 2.16+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.00
Esenler Erokspor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.9%
@ 3.71-10.9%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.22+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Esenler Erokspor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 8.00-9.0%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.05+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.1%
@ 1.81+0.1%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.88-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.7%
@ 4.97-2.8%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.13+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.05
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 9.50-6.8%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.5%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Under 5.5
98.2%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+9.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+9.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+8.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Under 4.5
94.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+12.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+9.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+3.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
+12.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.0%
Home +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+6.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
-
-
+10.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
+9.6%
Under 3.5
85.2%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+17.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-
-
+2.8%
Away +2 handicap
83.6%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
-
-
+8.2%
Over 2.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.5%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.44
+13.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-1.0%
Under 5.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.5%
1.32
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.30
+2.0%
Home +1 handicap
71.5%
1.31
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
-
+7.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Esenler Erokspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Muhamed Buljubašić25%
N. Janvier0%
Erkan Kaş0%
B. Öztürk0%
B. Samudio0%
Yusuf Erdoğan0%
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
H. Bilazer0%
A. Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
M. Okyar0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Recep Niyaz33%
M. Okyar33%
Erkan Kaş25%
Yusuf Erdoğan25%
Luccas Claro25%
H. Bilazer25%
Erdem Canpolat25%
Muhamed Buljubašić25%
N. Janvier0%
B. Öztürk0%
B. Samudio0%
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş0%
A. Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erkan Kaş25%
N. Janvier0%
B. Öztürk0%
B. Samudio0%
Yusuf Erdoğan0%
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
H. Bilazer0%
A. Zeqiri0%
Enes Alic 0%
M. Okyar0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
Muhamed Buljubašić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş67%
N. Janvier25%
B. Samudio25%
Yusuf Erdoğan25%
A. Zeqiri25%
Erkan Kaş0%
B. Öztürk0%
Luccas Claro0%
Recep Niyaz0%
H. Bilazer0%
Enes Alic 0%
M. Okyar0%
Erdem Canpolat0%
Muhamed Buljubašić0%
Kayserispor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Seferi75%
Florent Hasani25%
B. Keser25%
D. Moreno0%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Tabidze50%
S. Güler50%
T. Sarıarslan33%
G. Sağlam25%
Florent Hasani25%
T. Seferi25%
M. Uçar25%
Gökhan Değirmenci25%
M. Dulca25%
D. Moreno0%
D. Radu0%
S. Kurt0%
B. Keser0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. Sağlam25%
J. Tabidze25%
S. Kurt25%
B. Keser25%
D. Moreno0%
Florent Hasani0%
D. Radu0%
T. Seferi0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Moreno25%
Florent Hasani25%
T. Seferi25%
B. Keser25%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Esenler Erokspor's squad is €1m less valuable than Kayserispor's (€11m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Esenler Erokspor and Kayserispor have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Esenler Erokspor's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kayserispor's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Esenler Erokspor's defence is €2m less valuable than Kayserispor's (€3m vs €5m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Sarıyer
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor