Estac Troyes, fresh from a 2-1 victory over Lorient, look set to host Strasbourg who also arrived on a win, this time 2-1 against Lens. The model sees a home win as the favourite, with a 40% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of an away win. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. In the home side’s recent form against stronger opponents they average two goals scored and four conceded, while Strasbourg, playing away against weaker teams, averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8% with a 7% edge), Under 6.5 (98.2% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with an 8% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.8% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5% with a 5% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.9% with a 3% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Estac Troyes win
40.2%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.05
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.37
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.52
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.46
Pinnacle
3.46
Betfair
3.40
Strasbourg win
31.3%
Avg Implied 41.0% · @ 2.30
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Betfair
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Estac Troyes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.97
1.92
1.23
1.59
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
2.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.05
1.89
1.33
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.38
2.00
0.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.40
1.75
1.38
1.79
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.77
1.45
1.92
1.38
1.56
1.56
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
1.14
1.00
1.00
2.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.1%
@ 1.28+1.4%
Under 1.5
24.9%
@ 3.56-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.87
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.9%
@ 1.90-1.3%
Under 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.92+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.93
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.1%
@ 3.15-2.8%
Under 3.5
72.9%
@ 1.34+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Unibet
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
54.5%
@ 1.68-0.8%
No
45.5%
@ 2.08+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
BetVictor
1.67
Unibet
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.06+6.2%
1-0
8.9%@ 9.36+4.1%
2-1
8.7%@ 9.99+4.3%
0-0
8.4%@ 10.38+4.1%
1-2
7.6%@ 8.48+2.3%
0-1
7.5%@ 7.79+1.8%
2-0
7.2%@ 14.87+4.2%
0-2
5.4%@ 10.88+1.2%
Estac Troyes goals ↓
Strasbourg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
7.5%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.9%
14%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.2%
8.7%
5.3%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.4%
4.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estac Troyes goals (down), columns = Strasbourg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Estac Troyes is 0.52 points worse than Strasbourg in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Estac Troyes is 0.60 goals worse than Strasbourg in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Paris FC
1.47
Rennes
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Estac Troyes is 0.46 goals worse than Strasbourg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estac Troyes
For 5.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Strasbourg
For 4.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.2
8.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
26.9
26.4
27.5
vs Stronger (1)
14.0
14.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (37)
8.1
7.5
8.6
4.0
4.1
3.9
26.5
26.2
26.8
vs Weaker (12)
9.5
9.5
9.5
2.8
2.2
3.3
29.0
27.7
31.0
% over line
42%
40%
43%
44%
36%
52%
88%
92%
83%
% under line
58%
60%
57%
56%
64%
48%
12%
8%
17%
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.3
8.6
4.1
3.7
4.6
23.5
21.8
25.6
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
11.0
5.0
2.5
2.0
3.0
20.5
14.0
27.0
vs Similar (35)
9.3
9.6
8.8
4.0
3.9
4.2
23.1
21.9
24.6
vs Weaker (13)
8.2
7.8
8.6
4.6
3.5
5.6
25.2
22.7
27.4
% over line
42%
48%
35%
58%
48%
70%
68%
67%
70%
% under line
58%
52%
65%
42%
52%
30%
32%
33%
30%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.6%
@ 2.45+0.8%
Under 9.5
61.4%
@ 1.49-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.1%
@ 1.72+2.2%
Under 3.5
43.9%
@ 2.02-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.8%
Under 21.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Estac Troyes or Draw
68.7%
Avg Implied 58.7% · @ 1.60
Edge
+10.1%
40%
29%
31%
covers Estac Troyes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
Estac Troyes or Strasbourg
71.5%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.8%
40%
29%
31%
covers Estac Troyes + Strasbourg
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Draw or Strasbourg
59.8%
Avg Implied 69.0% · @ 1.36
Edge
-9.2%
40%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Strasbourg
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5
Over
75.6%
@ 1.32+5.3%
Under
24.4%
@ 3.14-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.33
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5
Over
41.2%
@ 2.62+5.5%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.45-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5
Over
16.9%
@ 6.41+2.4%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.09-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Estac Troyes over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
@ 14.88-0.9%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Strasbourg over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
@ 1.22-5.5%
Under
29.5%
@ 3.87+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.13
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Strasbourg over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
@ 2.15-9.0%
Under
65.6%
@ 1.65+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
BetVictor
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Strasbourg over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
@ 4.73-7.2%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.16+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Strasbourg over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
@ 10.79-5.1%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Unibet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Estac Troyes, so a minus line means Estac Troyes give that many goals of a start and Strasbourg receive them. At -1, Estac Troyes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Estac Troyes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Estac Troyes)
Estac Troyes -2
7.3%
@ 15.00+1.3%
Draw -2
12.3%
@ 8.62+1.8%
Strasbourg +2
80.4%
@ 1.08-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Estac Troyes)
Estac Troyes -1
19.6%
@ 6.41+5.6%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 4.63+1.1%
Strasbourg +1
59.8%
@ 1.35-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
Unibet
6.10
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Handicap +1 (Estac Troyes)
Estac Troyes +1
68.7%
@ 1.60+12.8%
Draw +1
17.6%
@ 3.91-5.3%
Strasbourg -1
13.7%
@ 4.26-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Away
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Handicap +2 (Estac Troyes)
Estac Troyes +2
86.3%
@ 1.18+9.4%
Draw +2
9.2%
@ 6.49-4.8%
Strasbourg -2
4.5%
@ 9.90-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.85
0.69
0.53
0.41
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.78
0.89
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.81
0.62
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.55
0.77
0.54
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.57
1.00
1.00
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.37-2.3%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 2.95+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.16
William Hil
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.5%
@ 2.73-4.8%
Under 1.5
70.5%
@ 1.43+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.85
Pinnacle
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Unibet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.9%
@ 6.84-3.7%
Under 2.5
90.1%
@ 1.08+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.90
Under
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.1%
@ 2.20+11.7%
Under
45.9%
@ 1.62-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Unibet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 7.32-2.7%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
@ 12.50-5.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.0%
@ 1.96-13.4%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.77+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Unibet
1.74
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
@ 5.84-9.4%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.10+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 11.50-6.6%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.08
0.54
1.06
0.35
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.43
1.11
0.44
1.08
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.94
0.75
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.91
1.15
0.85
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.57
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.9%
@ 1.22-3.5%
Under 0.5
27.1%
@ 3.97+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Betano
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.3%
@ 2.06-6.4%
Under 1.5
60.7%
@ 1.73+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 4.35-7.2%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.19+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.4%
@ 1.83+1.6%
Under
47.6%
@ 1.88-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.2%
@ 5.26-1.4%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.13+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
@ 10.75-4.9%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.6%
@ 1.65-8.8%
Under
52.4%
@ 2.13+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.4%
@ 4.14-11.0%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.20+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 9.00-7.3%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.04+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+2.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
+9.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.08
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+3.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
+2.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.20
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
+11.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+7.2%
Under 4.5
87.3%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.4%
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+9.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+7.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-
+1.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
83.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-2.4%
Under 11.5 corners
82.2%
1.13
Unibet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
+1.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-
-3.1%
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.27
-
-
-
+6.6%
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
1.30
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.29
-
-
-
+4.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.6%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
+5.3%
Over 1.5
75.1%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+1.4%
Under 10.5 corners
73.0%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
-
-0.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.9%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-3.5%
Under 3.5
72.9%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
+2.8%
Home or Away
71.5%
1.30
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
-0.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-5.5%
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.5%
1.43
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
+4.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estac Troyes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawfik Bentayeb48%
Martin Adeline32%
Renaud Ripart29%
Kandet Diawara23%
Jaures Assoumou21%
Mounaim El Idrissy14%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Antoine Mille9%
Mathys Detourbet9%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Ismaël Boura4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Lucas Maronnier0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Diakité33%
Nicolas Lemaitre30%
Adrien Monfray26%
Hugo Gambor26%
Lucas Maronnier22%
Mounaim El Idrissy21%
Paolo Gozzi20%
Xavier Chavalerin20%
Antoine Mille18%
Jaures Assoumou16%
Martin Adeline15%
Ismaël Boura14%
Sankhoun Diawara13%
Anis Ouzenadji13%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Mathys Detourbet11%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Hillel Konaté8%
Kandet Diawara8%
Alexandre Phliponeau7%
Yvann Titi5%
Merwan Ifnaoui3%
Roman Murcy0%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede0%
Noah Donkor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Adeline29%
Noah Donkor20%
Yvann Titi18%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Antoine Mille12%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Mouhamed Diop9%
Kandet Diawara8%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Mounaim El Idrissy7%
Ismaël Boura7%
Sankhoun Diawara7%
Hugo Gambor5%
Jaures Assoumou5%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Renaud Ripart0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Roman Murcy0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawfik Bentayeb42%
Jaures Assoumou32%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Kandet Diawara15%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Merwan Ifnaoui7%
Martin Adeline6%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Mounaim El Idrissy4%
Antoine Mille3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Anis Ouzenadji0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
Strasbourg · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joaquin Panichelli44%
Emmanuel Emegha33%
Martial Godo30%
Sebastian Nanasi26%
Julio Enciso24%
Dilane Bakwa20%
Diego Moreira12%
Abdoul Ouattara9%
Maxi Oyedele7%
Valentín Barco7%
Guéla Doué6%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw5%
Kendry Páez5%
Ismael Doukouré5%
Samir El Mourabet4%
Andrew Omobamidele2%
Ben Chilwell0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
Junior Mwanga0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Félix Lemaréchal0%
Mike Penders0%
Rafael Luis0%
Gessime Yassine0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yaya Diémé67%
Maxi Oyedele29%
Emmanuel Emegha28%
Tyrese Noubissie25%
Diego Moreira24%
Mamadou Sarr22%
Valentín Barco21%
Guéla Doué21%
Andrew Omobamidele17%
Ismael Doukouré16%
Mathis Amougou16%
Ben Chilwell15%
Samir El Mourabet15%
Junior Mwanga12%
Rabby Nzingoula12%
Mike Penders10%
Kendry Páez10%
Martial Godo9%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw8%
Joaquin Panichelli8%
Lucas Høgsberg8%
Félix Lemaréchal6%
Rafael Luis6%
Gessime Yassine5%
Julio Enciso5%
Abdoul Ouattara5%
Sebastian Nanasi3%
Dilane Bakwa0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dilane Bakwa40%
Guéla Doué21%
Diego Moreira17%
Valentín Barco16%
Sebastian Nanasi15%
Julio Enciso14%
Félix Lemaréchal12%
Martial Godo11%
Emmanuel Emegha11%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw10%
Ben Chilwell9%
Joaquin Panichelli8%
Rafael Luis6%
Gessime Yassine5%
Ismael Doukouré5%
Samir El Mourabet4%
Andrew Omobamidele0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
Junior Mwanga0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Maxi Oyedele0%
Mike Penders0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Kendry Páez0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joaquin Panichelli38%
Julio Enciso29%
Félix Lemaréchal19%
Martial Godo18%
Junior Mwanga12%
Emmanuel Emegha11%
Sebastian Nanasi9%
Valentín Barco7%
Gessime Yassine5%
Abdoul Ouattara5%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw3%
Diego Moreira2%
Ismael Doukouré2%
Ben Chilwell0%
Dilane Bakwa0%
Andrew Omobamidele0%
Guéla Doué0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Maxi Oyedele0%
Mike Penders0%
Rafael Luis0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Kendry Páez0%
Samir El Mourabet0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Estac Troyes's squad is €268m less valuable than Strasbourg's (€36m vs €304m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Estac Troyes's attack is €105m less valuable than Strasbourg's (€7m vs €112m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Estac Troyes's midfield is €44m less valuable than Strasbourg's (€11m vs €56m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Estac Troyes's defence is €119m less valuable than Strasbourg's (€17m vs €136m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre