Etzella Ettelbruck face a daunting challenge at home after a string of four losses, their last outing ending 0-5. The Pythia model sees F91 Dudelange as the clear favourite, assigning a 75% chance to an away win. This preference stems from Dudelange’s strong away form, scoring an average of one goal and conceding only half a goal against weaker opponents, while Etzella’s home record shows they struggle against stronger teams, conceding over two goals per match. The model’s pick is an away win, and the expected total goals hover at three. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 14% probability, while the average goal count leans toward two. Etzella’s home side averages 0.87 goals scored and 2.13 conceded; Dudelange’s away side averages 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 7.5 at 98.8%, Away +2 handicap at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 goals at 97.3%, Under 6.5 at 96.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 95.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 93.7%, and Draw or Away at 92.6%. The home win probability sits at 7%, draw at 17%, and away win at 75%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Etzella Ettelbruck win
7.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange win
75.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Etzella Ettelbruck
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.47
0.87
2.13
1.47
2.80
vs Stronger (29)
1.10
2.48
0.87
2.13
1.36
2.86
vs Similar (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
1.79
1.29
1.44
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.40
1.50
1.25
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.00
2.17
1.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
14.0%
0-1
11.1%
0-3
11.1%
1-2
8.8%
1-1
8.2%
1-3
7.0%
0-4
6.6%
0-0
5.7%
Etzella Ettelbruck goals ↓
F91 Dudelange goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
11%
14%
11%
6.6%
1
2.4%
8.2%
8.8%
7.0%
4.1%
2
1.0%
2.3%
2.8%
2.2%
1.3%
3
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Etzella Ettelbruck goals (down), columns = F91 Dudelange goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Etzella Ettelbruck is 1.00 points worse than F91 Dudelange in terms of average points per game (0.20 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck is 0.60 goals worse than F91 Dudelange in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Etzella Ettelbruck is 1.00 goals worse than F91 Dudelange in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Etzella Ettelbruck
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
F91 Dudelange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Etzella Ettelbruck
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (40)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
9.0
7.5
0.7
1.0
0.5
24.7
25.0
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
9.0
9.0
-
0.8
1.6
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (17)
7.5
-
7.5
0.7
0.0
1.5
24.5
-
24.5
% over line
0%
0%
0%
8%
12%
4%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
92%
88%
96%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.3%
Under 9.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.6%
Under 3.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.6%
Under 21.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Etzella Ettelbruck or Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
7%
17%
76%
covers Etzella Ettelbruck + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck or F91 Dudelange
82.8%
Avg Implied -
7%
17%
76%
covers Etzella Ettelbruck + F91 Dudelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or F91 Dudelange
92.7%
Avg Implied -
7%
17%
76%
covers Draw + F91 Dudelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5
Over
90.7%
Under
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 3.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Etzella Ettelbruck, so a minus line means Etzella Ettelbruck give that many goals of a start and F91 Dudelange receive them. At -1, Etzella Ettelbruck must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Etzella Ettelbruck win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck -2
0.3%
Draw -2
1.6%
F91 Dudelange +2
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck -1
1.9%
Draw -1
5.4%
F91 Dudelange +1
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck +1
24.5%
Draw +1
22.3%
F91 Dudelange -1
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck +2
46.8%
Draw +2
22.4%
F91 Dudelange -2
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Etzella Ettelbruck
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.07
0.27
1.00
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (29)
0.28
1.07
0.27
1.00
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.75
0.50
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.40
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Etzella Ettelbruck
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.40
0.60
1.13
1.13
1.67
vs Stronger (29)
0.83
1.41
0.60
1.13
1.07
1.71
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F91 Dudelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.00
0.79
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.85
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.83
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck and F91 Dudelange have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck and F91 Dudelange have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck and F91 Dudelange have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck and F91 Dudelange have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →