Etzella Ettelbruck’s recent five matches have been a string of four losses and a single draw, a slump that ended with a 0-5 defeat to Résidence Walferdange. The Pythia model therefore rates the away side, Progres Niederkorn, as the clear favourite, assigning a 77% chance of victory. This preference stems from Progres’ strong away form against weaker opposition, scoring 1.8 goals per game while conceding only one, compared with Etzella’s 0.87 goals scored and 2.13 conceded at home against stronger teams. The model’s pick is an away win, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2, which carries a 13.7% probability. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, but the single most probable total is two, with a 22% chance. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 7%, 16% and 77% respectively. Suggested selections include Home under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away +2 handicap (98.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (97.3%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Over 2.5 cards (95.6%), Over 19.5 fouls (93.4%) and Draw or Away (93.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Etzella Ettelbruck win
7.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn win
74.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Etzella Ettelbruck
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.47
0.87
2.13
1.47
2.80
vs Stronger (29)
1.10
2.48
0.87
2.13
1.36
2.86
vs Similar (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.37
1.43
1.64
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.45
1.44
1.78
1.09
1.18
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
1.20
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.5%
0-3
10.7%
0-1
10.6%
1-2
9.0%
1-1
8.3%
1-3
7.1%
0-4
6.4%
0-0
5.5%
Etzella Ettelbruck goals ↓
Progres Niederkorn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
11%
14%
11%
6.4%
1
2.4%
8.3%
9.0%
7.1%
4.2%
2
1.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2.3%
1.4%
3
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Etzella Ettelbruck goals (down), columns = Progres Niederkorn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Etzella Ettelbruck is 1.60 points worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of average points per game (0.20 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck is 1.20 goals worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Etzella Ettelbruck is 1.80 goals worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Etzella Ettelbruck
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Progres Niederkorn
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Etzella Ettelbruck
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (43)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (42)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
9.0
6.0
0.5
0.3
0.7
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
7.7
11.0
6.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
vs Weaker (19)
7.0
7.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
8%
4%
12%
75%
100%
50%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
92%
96%
88%
25%
0%
50%
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
30.7%
Under 9.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.7%
Under 3.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.1%
Under 21.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Etzella Ettelbruck or Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
8%
17%
75%
covers Etzella Ettelbruck + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck or Progres Niederkorn
82.7%
Avg Implied -
8%
17%
75%
covers Etzella Ettelbruck + Progres Niederkorn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
92.3%
Avg Implied -
8%
17%
75%
covers Draw + Progres Niederkorn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5
Over
90.7%
Under
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 3.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Etzella Ettelbruck, so a minus line means Etzella Ettelbruck give that many goals of a start and Progres Niederkorn receive them. At -1, Etzella Ettelbruck must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Etzella Ettelbruck win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.7%
Progres Niederkorn +2
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck -1
2.1%
Draw -1
5.6%
Progres Niederkorn +1
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck +1
25.1%
Draw +1
22.2%
Progres Niederkorn -1
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Etzella Ettelbruck)
Etzella Ettelbruck +2
47.3%
Draw +2
22.2%
Progres Niederkorn -2
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Etzella Ettelbruck
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.07
0.27
1.00
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (29)
0.28
1.07
0.27
1.00
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.30
0.67
0.44
0.36
0.18
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Etzella Ettelbruck
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.40
0.60
1.13
1.13
1.67
vs Stronger (29)
0.83
1.41
0.60
1.13
1.07
1.71
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.86
1.14
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.15
0.78
1.33
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Etzella Ettelbruck) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etzella Ettelbruck over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck's squad is €2m less valuable than Progres Niederkorn's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Etzella Ettelbruck's defence is €1m less valuable than Progres Niederkorn's (€0m vs €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →