This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.67
1.47
0.87
1.60
2.47
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.29
1.00
1.25
2.00
3.67
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.56
1.50
0.88
1.40
2.10
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
1.20
2.00
0.33
2.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.1%
No
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2 ✓
8.5%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
5.3%
0-2
5.2%
0-1
4.7%
2-3
4.3%
Excelsior goals ↓
Heerenveen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.7%
5.2%
3.2%
1.5%
1
4.1%
10%
8.5%
5.3%
2.4%
2
4.1%
7.6%
7.0%
4.3%
2.0%
3
2.3%
4.2%
3.9%
2.4%
1.1%
4
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Excelsior goals (down), columns = Heerenveen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Ajax
2.32
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Feyenoord
1.94
Utrecht
1.59
Vitesse
1.44
Den Haag
1.38
Heerenveen
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heracles
1.24
Excelsior
1.18
Groningen
1.12
Willem II
1.09
NAC Breda
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Roda
0.88
Sparta Rotterdam
0.79
Twente
0.71
Excelsior is 0.18 points worse than Heerenveen in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.62
PSV Eindhoven
2.56
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
2.12
Vitesse
1.85
Utrecht
1.71
Heracles
1.47
Groningen
1.47
Willem II
1.47
Heerenveen
1.41
Den Haag
1.32
Roda
1.24
PEC Zwolle
1.24
Excelsior
1.21
NAC Breda
1.21
Twente
1.09
VVV Venlo
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Excelsior is 0.21 goals worse than Heerenveen in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.97
AZ Alkmaar
1.12
Feyenoord
1.15
PSV Eindhoven
1.15
Vitesse
1.38
Groningen
1.47
Utrecht
1.56
Den Haag
1.56
Heerenveen
1.56
PEC Zwolle
1.59
VVV Venlo
1.59
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.68
Willem II
1.85
Twente
1.85
Heracles
1.88
Roda
2.03
Sparta Rotterdam
2.21
Excelsior is 0.09 goals worse than Heerenveen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Excelsior
For 3.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 10.2 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
For 7.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 11.8 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.5
8.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
25.0
26.5
23.5
vs Stronger (21)
9.0
9.0
-
0.1
0.3
0.0
33.0
33.0
-
vs Similar (29)
8.7
10.0
8.0
0.4
0.2
0.8
22.3
20.0
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
4%
0%
8%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
96%
100%
92%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.2
12.5
12.0
0.3
0.3
0.2
26.2
26.0
26.5
vs Stronger (12)
12.0
12.0
-
0.3
0.6
0.0
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (28)
12.5
13.0
12.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
27.0
28.0
26.0
vs Weaker (10)
12.0
-
12.0
0.3
0.0
0.4
27.0
-
27.0
% over line
100%
100%
100%
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AZ Alkmaar
14.4
NAC Breda
13.2
PSV Eindhoven
13.0
Sparta Rotterdam
12.6
Groningen
12.5
Heerenveen
12.2
Vitesse
11.8
Ajax
11.2
Den Haag
11.2
Utrecht
10.5
Roda
10.2
Heracles
10.0
VVV Venlo
9.8
Twente
9.2
PEC Zwolle
9.2
Feyenoord
8.8
Excelsior
8.8
Willem II
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Twente
5.0
Sparta Rotterdam
4.2
Excelsior
4.0
PEC Zwolle
4.0
Feyenoord
3.8
Groningen
3.8
Heracles
3.5
Den Haag
3.5
Heerenveen
3.2
NAC Breda
3.2
VVV Venlo
3.2
AZ Alkmaar
3.2
PSV Eindhoven
3.0
Willem II
2.8
Ajax
2.8
Vitesse
2.8
Utrecht
2.5
Roda
1.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NAC Breda
29.8
Heracles
27.8
Feyenoord
27.8
Den Haag
27.0
PSV Eindhoven
26.8
Heerenveen
26.2
Excelsior
25.0
Willem II
24.8
AZ Alkmaar
24.6
Twente
24.2
Utrecht
24.0
Groningen
23.5
Ajax
23.2
Vitesse
23.2
Roda
23.0
Sparta Rotterdam
22.8
VVV Venlo
19.0
PEC Zwolle
18.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.9%
Under 9.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.3%
Under 21.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.86
1.00
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.72
0.75
0.38
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.33
0.40
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
0.75
0.25
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.94
0.25
0.62
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.53
0.87
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.57
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.39
1.22
0.38
1.12
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.13
0.47
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.25
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.61
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.80
2.00
0.33
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Excelsior · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Heerenveen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
VV (19)
€4m
Excelsior's squad is €34m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€16m vs €50m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
VV (6)
€1m
Excelsior's attack is €16m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€7m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
NB (3)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Excelsior's midfield is €4m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€3m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
Excelsior's defence is €14m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€6m vs €20m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Vitesse
PEC Zwolle
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
NAC Breda
VVV Venlo
Roda
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente