This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.10
0.80
3.44
0.31
2.71
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.00
0.75
2.33
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
3.27
0.81
3.69
0.31
2.85
1.31
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.3%
Under 1.5
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
78.0%
Under 2.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.8%
No
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.4%
1-3
7.9%
1-1
6.5%
0-2 ✓
6.5%
0-3
6.1%
1-4
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
2-3
5.1%
Excelsior goals ↓
PSV Eindhoven goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
4.0%
6.5%
6.1%
4.4%
1
1.5%
6.5%
8.4%
7.9%
5.6%
2
1.3%
3.8%
5.4%
5.1%
3.6%
3
0.6%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
1.6%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Excelsior goals (down), columns = PSV Eindhoven goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.53
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Feyenoord
1.91
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Vitesse
1.56
Utrecht
1.56
Heracles
1.41
Groningen
1.32
Den Haag
1.32
Willem II
1.29
VVV Venlo
1.21
Heerenveen
1.21
PEC Zwolle
1.15
Emmen
1.12
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Excelsior
0.97
De Graafschap
0.85
NAC Breda
0.68
Excelsior is 1.47 points worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.50
PSV Eindhoven
2.88
Feyenoord
2.21
Vitesse
2.06
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Heerenveen
1.88
Heracles
1.79
Utrecht
1.76
Den Haag
1.71
Willem II
1.71
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
VVV Venlo
1.38
Excelsior
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Emmen
1.21
Groningen
1.15
De Graafschap
1.12
NAC Breda
0.85
Excelsior is 1.53 goals worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 2.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
PSV Eindhoven
0.76
Ajax
0.94
Groningen
1.21
Feyenoord
1.21
AZ Alkmaar
1.26
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.68
Den Haag
1.85
VVV Venlo
1.85
Heracles
2.00
Willem II
2.12
Emmen
2.12
Heerenveen
2.15
NAC Breda
2.18
De Graafschap
2.21
Excelsior
2.32
Fortuna Sittard
2.35
Excelsior is 1.56 goals worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of goals conceded per game (2.32 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Excelsior
For 2.6 · Against 8.6 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 12.0 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PSV Eindhoven
For 6.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 13.6 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.1
12.4
11.8
3.4
2.9
3.8
22.6
21.3
23.9
vs Stronger (17)
12.9
12.4
13.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
20.8
20.0
21.6
vs Similar (33)
11.7
12.4
11.0
3.5
2.8
4.3
23.5
21.9
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
74%
76%
72%
44%
28%
60%
60%
52%
68%
% under line
26%
24%
28%
56%
72%
40%
40%
48%
32%
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.8
11.3
4.0
4.6
3.4
22.7
22.7
22.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
10.3
10.7
10.0
5.3
5.7
5.0
28.8
28.0
29.7
vs Weaker (44)
11.2
10.9
11.5
3.8
4.4
3.2
21.9
22.0
21.8
% over line
64%
56%
72%
58%
68%
48%
58%
60%
56%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
42%
32%
52%
42%
40%
44%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Excelsior
12.1
Ajax
11.4
Fortuna Sittard
11.3
Feyenoord
11.2
Den Haag
11.2
PSV Eindhoven
11.1
Heracles
11.0
Utrecht
10.8
AZ Alkmaar
10.8
NAC Breda
10.6
VVV Venlo
10.5
PEC Zwolle
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Willem II
10.2
Vitesse
10.2
Groningen
9.7
De Graafschap
9.7
Heerenveen
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Sittard
4.2
PSV Eindhoven
4.0
PEC Zwolle
3.9
AZ Alkmaar
3.6
De Graafschap
3.4
Groningen
3.4
Ajax
3.4
Excelsior
3.4
Vitesse
3.4
Utrecht
3.4
NAC Breda
3.3
Willem II
3.3
Emmen
3.3
Den Haag
3.2
VVV Venlo
3.2
Heracles
3.1
Heerenveen
3.1
Feyenoord
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fortuna Sittard
25.0
Heerenveen
24.5
Emmen
24.1
Heracles
24.1
Vitesse
23.9
PEC Zwolle
23.8
De Graafschap
23.5
Utrecht
23.3
Willem II
23.2
AZ Alkmaar
23.1
Ajax
23.0
VVV Venlo
22.9
PSV Eindhoven
22.7
Groningen
22.6
Excelsior
22.6
NAC Breda
22.5
Den Haag
22.5
Feyenoord
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
68.1%
Under 9.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.3%
Under 3.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.3%
Under 21.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.88
0.56
0.29
1.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.76
0.83
0.58
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.43
1.44
0.12
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.67
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.15
0.42
1.38
0.15
0.92
0.69
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.53
0.81
1.56
0.57
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.22
0.75
2.75
0.00
1.80
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.24
0.83
1.17
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.37
2.00
0.19
1.86
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.12
0.38
2.31
0.15
1.92
0.62
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Excelsior · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
PSV Eindhoven · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergiño Dest67%
Ricardo Pepi50%
Ruben van Bommel50%
Sven Mijnans33%
Noah Fernandez33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Guus Til25%
Ryan Flamingo25%
Armando Obispo0%
Dennis Man0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Kodai Sano0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Man33%
Armando Obispo25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Ivan Perišić0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Sergiño Dest0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergiño Dest67%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Paul Wanner25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Amir Bouhamdi25%
Armando Obispo0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Dennis Man0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Pepi75%
Guus Til50%
Sergiño Dest33%
Dennis Man33%
Kodai Sano33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Armando Obispo0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
DG (21)
€6m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
Excelsior's squad is €264m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€16m vs €280m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
DG (8)
€2m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
Excelsior's attack is €99m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€7m vs €106m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Excelsior's midfield is €57m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€3m vs €60m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
Excelsior's defence is €108m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€6m vs €115m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Utrecht
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
Heerenveen
VVV Venlo
PEC Zwolle
Emmen
Fortuna Sittard
De Graafschap
NAC Breda