Excelsior’s recent five-match run of LWWDW, ending with a 1-2 loss to PSV, sets a cautious tone, while Sparta Rotterdam’s DWLLL streak, capped by a 3-3 draw with Utrecht, shows they can keep the ball. The model’s most likely outcome is a home win, with probabilities of 43% for Excelsior, 27% for a draw and 31% for Sparta. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a tight contest, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Excelsior averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.22 conceded at home against similarly matched teams, whereas Sparta scores 1.4 and concedes 1.8 on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.1% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6% with a 7% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7% with a 9% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.3% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.9% with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.4% with a 5% edge and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.1% with a 3% edge.
Results analysis
Excelsior’s win over Sparta Rotterdam extended their recent run, with the 2-1 result matching the model’s predicted home victory and the 2-1 scoreline falling within the most likely outcome. The model, favouring a home win at 43%, was correct, and the final score confirmed the expected 2-1 result. Every suggested pick landed: Under 7.5 at 99.1% hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3% hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6% hit, Under 6.5 at 97.3% hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8% hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0% hit, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.4% hit, and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.1% hit. The model’s selections performed strongly, with all probabilities expressed as percentages and each pick’s outcome clearly stated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Excelsior win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.22
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.41
10Bet
2.36
1xBet
2.31
William Hil
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.69
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.89
Pinnacle
3.81
Bet365
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Sparta Rotterdam win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.90
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.21
Unibet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Superbet
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.43
1.29
1.36
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
1.70
1.80
1.60
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.30
1.00
1.22
1.73
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.67
1.44
1.38
1.43
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.12
0.75
1.75
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.50
1.67
1.25
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
@ 1.16-0.3%
Under 1.5
19.6%
@ 4.87+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Under
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.56-3.7%
Under 2.5
43.5%
@ 2.35+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.45
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
@ 2.42-5.0%
Under 3.5
65.9%
@ 1.56+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.45
Marathonbet
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
BetVictor
1.56
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
@ 1.47-3.2%
No
39.9%
@ 2.53+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.63
10Bet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 7.01+6.0%
2-1 ✓
9.1%@ 8.54+3.9%
1-2
7.5%@ 9.74+2.9%
1-0
7.4%@ 10.56+3.1%
2-0
6.9%@ 12.67+3.3%
0-0
6.4%@ 15.16+3.4%
2-2
6.1%@ 10.34+1.7%
0-1
5.8%@ 12.01+2.1%
Excelsior goals ↓
Sparta Rotterdam goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.8%
4.6%
2.0%
0.7%
1
7.4%
12%
7.5%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.1%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.7%
4.9%
3.3%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Excelsior goals (down), columns = Sparta Rotterdam goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Excelsior is 0.15 points worse than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Excelsior is 0.09 goals better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Excelsior is 0.18 goals better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Excelsior is 0.5 percentage points better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of average possession (48% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Excelsior
For 3.7 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 8.6 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sparta Rotterdam
For 4.1 · Against 7.2 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
21.8
20.8
22.8
vs Stronger (15)
9.3
7.2
11.6
2.2
2.0
2.4
18.8
17.6
20.1
vs Similar (34)
9.5
9.9
9.2
3.1
3.4
2.9
23.1
22.3
23.8
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
42%
40%
44%
34%
32%
36%
48%
40%
56%
% under line
58%
60%
56%
66%
68%
64%
52%
60%
44%
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.6
11.0
3.5
3.3
3.6
20.5
20.4
20.6
vs Stronger (15)
10.9
11.1
10.7
3.1
3.4
2.9
19.1
18.4
20.0
vs Similar (35)
10.7
10.3
11.1
3.6
3.3
3.9
21.1
21.3
20.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
62%
62%
52%
50%
54%
42%
35%
50%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
48%
50%
46%
58%
65%
50%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.8
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.6
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.8
Twente
20.8
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
20.5
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.23
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Unibet
2.02
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Under
Superbet
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Excelsior or Draw✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied 67.6% · @ 1.39
Edge
-4.4%
43%
27%
30%
covers Excelsior + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
SBO
1.40
Excelsior or Sparta Rotterdam✓ Hit
72.7%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.25
Edge
-2.3%
43%
27%
30%
covers Excelsior + Sparta Rotterdam
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam✗ Miss
64.1%
Avg Implied 57.4% · @ 1.63
Edge
+6.7%
43%
27%
30%
covers Draw + Sparta Rotterdam
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Excelsior over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.9%
@ 1.16-3.8%
Under
24.1%
@ 4.57+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Excelsior over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.6%
@ 1.83-9.4%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.91+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Under
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Excelsior over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 3.62-8.4%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.25+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.81
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
1xBet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Excelsior over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 7.94-6.0%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.05+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.4%
@ 1.23+0.8%
Under
23.6%
@ 3.80-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Pinnacle
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.3%
@ 2.19-0.5%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.64+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.29
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
BetVictor
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.7%
@ 4.80-1.7%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.16+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 11.04-2.6%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Excelsior, so a minus line means Excelsior give that many goals of a start and Sparta Rotterdam receive them. At -1, Excelsior must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Excelsior win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Excelsior)Actual: Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior -2
6.4%
@ 8.20-4.6%
Draw -2
10.9%
@ 6.24-3.6%
Sparta Rotterdam +2
82.7%
@ 1.21+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Superbet
5.85
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Excelsior)Actual: Draw
Excelsior -1
17.3%
@ 3.80-6.3%
Draw -1
18.6%
@ 4.05-3.5%
Sparta Rotterdam +1
64.1%
@ 1.65+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +1 (Excelsior)Actual: Excelsior
Excelsior +1
63.2%
@ 1.37-2.4%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 4.80+0.1%
Sparta Rotterdam -1
17.9%
@ 5.75+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Superbet
5.30
Handicap +2 (Excelsior)Actual: Excelsior
Excelsior +2
82.1%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Draw +2
11.2%
@ 7.84-0.3%
Sparta Rotterdam -2
6.7%
@ 11.74-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.20
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.40
0.56
0.22
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.50
0.67
0.42
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.4%
@ 1.26-6.2%
Under 0.5
32.6%
@ 3.51+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.64
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.8%
@ 2.28-7.2%
Under 1.5
66.2%
@ 1.58+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.34
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
BetVictor
1.59
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 5.19-6.2%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.13+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.30
Unibet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.4%
@ 1.76-1.5%
Under
48.6%
@ 1.98+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.78-5.9%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.15+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 12.12-4.6%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 1.97-10.1%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.77+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 5.97-6.2%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.09+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
5.95
Superbet
5.85
Betano
5.80
Under
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 15.50-4.5%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.71
0.93
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.90
1.20
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.90
0.44
1.00
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.13
0.88
0.88
1.00
1.43
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.15-3.1%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 4.94+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Betano
4.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 1.76-8.1%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 1.99+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.2%
@ 3.33-8.7%
Under 2.5
80.8%
@ 1.29+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
William Hil
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.8%
@ 1.54-1.4%
Under
41.2%
@ 2.33+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.15
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 3.47-6.6%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.27+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 8.73-5.6%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.20
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.7%
@ 1.66-8.1%
Under
52.3%
@ 2.10+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 4.16-8.4%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.19+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.00
10Bet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 11.12-6.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.04
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.09
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.7%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.8%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.7%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.3%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
1.11
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.4%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.14
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.4%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.9%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.7%
1.25
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
-2.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Excelsior
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Sparta Rotterdam
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Milan Zonneveld50%
Marvin Young50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Nick Verschuren25%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jens Toornstra33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bas Kuipers25%
Casper Terho25%
Lushendry Edward Martes25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Nökkvi Þórisson0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bas Kuipers50%
Shunsuke Mito50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Joel Ideho33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Casper Terho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nökkvi Þórisson67%
Ayoni Santos33%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Excelsior's squad is €12m less valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€16m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Excelsior's attack is €7m less valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€7m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Excelsior's midfield is €1m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Excelsior's defence is €6m less valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€6m vs €12m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Groningen
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur