This League Two match between Exeter and Accrington is likely to be a closely contested affair, with Exeter's recent form a storyline to watch. After two straight defeats, Exeter will be looking to bounce back, but Accrington comes off a draw. Exeter are the favourites to win, with a 49% chance of a home victory, 28% chance of a draw, and 23% chance of an Accrington win.
The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability. Exeter have averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded at home, while Accrington have averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection for this match is the Home win, with the Under 3.5 goals having a 76.3% chance of occurring and the Over 1.5 goals having a 72% chance. The suggested picks include Under 3.5 (76.3%), Over 1.5 (72%), and no other selections are provided. Exeter have a 49% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 23% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Accrington, failed to deliver as the model had predicted an away win with a 44 % probability, but Exeter secured a 2-0 victory. The upset came after Exeter’s recent win, extending a modest run, while Accrington had just suffered a defeat. The model’s call was incorrect. The final score of 2-0 confirmed a home win. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3 %, Under 5.5 hit at 96.0 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 93.3 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 92.6 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 91.5 %, and Under 4.5 hit at 89.4 %. All selections performed as predicted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Exeter win✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied 47.2% · @ 1.96
Edge
-18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Dafabet
1.99
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.38
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.44
Accrington win✗ Miss
43.5%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.66
Edge
+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.80
Betano
3.80
10Bet
3.80
BetVictor
3.70
Superbet
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Exeter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
1.21
1.50
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
3.33
1.25
3.00
1.00
3.60
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.14
1.20
0.90
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.33
1.07
1.40
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
2.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.27
1.33
1.17
0.86
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
@ 1.29+3.1%
Under 1.5
24.6%
@ 3.36-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.60
Bet365
3.50
888Sport
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.92+0.5%
Under 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.83-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
@ 3.25-1.1%
Under 3.5
72.5%
@ 1.30+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Under
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.4%
@ 1.75+1.6%
No
45.6%
@ 1.96-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
No
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.11+6.2%
0-1
9.3%@ 10.11+4.9%
1-2
9.1%@ 11.65+5.3%
0-0
8.3%@ 9.07+3.4%
0-2
7.8%@ 18.32+5.4%
2-1
7.1%@ 7.85+1.5%
1-0
7.0%@ 6.80+0.5%
2-2
5.3%@ 13.07+1.9%
Exeter goals ↓
Accrington goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
9.3%
7.8%
3.9%
1.4%
1
7.0%
13%
9.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.8%
7.1%
5.3%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Exeter goals (down), columns = Accrington goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Exeter is 0.43 points better than Accrington in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Exeter is 0.45 goals better than Accrington in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Exeter is 0.14 goals better than Accrington in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Exeter
For 4.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
For 4.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.3
3.3
2.9
3.7
21.9
22.1
21.7
vs Stronger (12)
9.2
8.4
9.9
3.2
2.6
3.6
21.5
21.4
21.6
vs Similar (37)
10.6
10.6
10.5
3.5
3.0
3.9
22.0
22.3
21.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
64%
50%
50%
39%
59%
56%
50%
62%
% under line
44%
36%
50%
50%
61%
41%
44%
50%
38%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.6
9.8
3.9
3.2
4.8
22.2
22.0
22.4
vs Stronger (9)
10.9
10.2
11.5
4.9
3.4
6.8
24.1
26.8
21.5
vs Similar (41)
9.5
9.5
9.4
3.7
3.1
4.3
21.8
21.1
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
48%
54%
52%
35%
71%
49%
48%
50%
% under line
49%
52%
46%
48%
65%
29%
51%
52%
50%
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.7%
@ 1.75-0.2%
Under 9.5
47.3%
@ 1.97+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.5%
Under 3.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.8%
Under 21.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Exeter or Draw✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.24
Edge
+2.0%
28%
28%
44%
covers Exeter + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Exeter or Accrington✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.5%
28%
28%
44%
covers Exeter + Accrington
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Draw or Accrington✗ Miss
51.4%
Avg Implied 51.9% · @ 1.79
Edge
-0.5%
28%
28%
44%
covers Draw + Accrington
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.85
888Sport
1.80
10Bet
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Exeter over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
@ 1.20+0.1%
Under
22.1%
@ 4.18-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.38
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Exeter over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 1.99-2.3%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.75+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
888Sport
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Exeter over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.3%
@ 4.13-3.1%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.20+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Exeter over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 9.46-3.3%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.05+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Superbet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Accrington over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
62.0%
@ 1.43-3.0%
Under
38.0%
@ 2.65+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.83
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.65
888Sport
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Accrington over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.2%
@ 3.12-4.6%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.32+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
BetVictor
3.13
Superbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Accrington over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 8.11-4.1%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.06+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Accrington over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 22.19-2.7%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Exeter, so a minus line means Exeter give that many goals of a start and Accrington receive them. At -1, Exeter must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Exeter win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Exeter)Actual: Draw
Exeter -2
10.2%
@ 7.45-1.8%
Draw -2
15.2%
@ 5.39-1.4%
Accrington +2
74.7%
@ 1.25+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
7.10
Draw
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Handicap -1 (Exeter)Actual: Exeter
Exeter -1
25.3%
@ 3.47-0.4%
Draw -1
23.3%
@ 3.59-1.6%
Accrington +1
51.4%
@ 1.80+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
Bet365
3.40
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.55
Away
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
Handicap +1 (Exeter)Actual: Exeter
Exeter +1
77.0%
@ 1.25+5.1%
Draw +1
14.5%
@ 5.25-2.6%
Accrington -1
8.5%
@ 8.15-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Draw
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.05
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Exeter)Actual: Exeter
Exeter +2
91.5%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 11.23-2.0%
Accrington -2
2.3%
@ 21.67-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.70
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.83
0.21
0.64
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.25
1.25
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.62
0.20
0.40
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.58
0.75
0.42
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.70
William Hil
6.50
Under
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Under
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.25
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.42
Unibet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.70
10Bet
7.50
Under
10Bet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
1.00
0.86
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.00
1.00
1.75
0.80
2.20
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.52
1.00
0.50
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.69
0.58
0.75
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.05
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.7%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.9%
1.20
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.0%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.0%
1.25
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.4%
1.29
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.8%
1.32
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.5%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.29
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
1.36
Superbet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+3.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Exeter
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Fitzwater50%
Reece Cole25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins50%
Vincent Harper33%
Reece Cole25%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Fitzwater25%
Josh Gordon25%
Ethan Sutherland25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
E. James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Reece Cole0%
J. Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole25%
Josh Gordon25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
J. Fitzwater0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Accrington
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Woods50%
Stefan Mols33%
F. Rawson25%
D. Tutonda0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Anderson50%
J. Woods50%
Seamus Conneely33%
S. Whalley33%
Liam Coyle33%
Tom Moore33%
F. Rawson25%
Donald Love25%
D. Tutonda0%
C. Stockton0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Donald Love25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
J. Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Woods50%
Donald Love25%
Charlie Caton25%
Alex Henderson25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Exeter and Accrington have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Exeter and Accrington have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Exeter and Accrington have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Exeter and Accrington have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Port Vale