F91 Dudelange are the clear favourites, with a 57% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Differdange win. The model predicts an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries an 11.3% chance. Dudelange’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Differdange’s away form is slightly lower at 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 80.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.6% and Over 8.5 corners at 75.8%. The recent run of two wins for Dudelange and four for Differdange adds context, though the model still favours a Dudelange triumph.
Results analysis
The win extends F91 Dudelange’s two-game winning run, while FC Differdange 03’s four-game streak was halted. The final score was 3-1, a home win that matched the model’s prediction. The model had chosen a home win with a 57% probability, and this call proved correct. The suggested pick Over 1.5 goals had an 80.8% probability and hit, as the match saw four goals. All other selections were settled as indicated, and no additional outcomes were mentioned. The prediction model delivered a favourable result and its key selections largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
F91 Dudelange win✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 win✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
F91 Dudelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.12
1.25
2.50
1.12
1.75
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.38
1.67
1.67
2.40
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
4.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.10
2.20
1.40
1.20
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.33
1.00
1.33
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.75
4.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.8%
3-1 ✓
6.4%
3-0
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
5.3%
F91 Dudelange goals ↓
FC Differdange 03 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.3%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
1
8.8%
11%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.2%
6.4%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.0%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = F91 Dudelange goals (down), columns = FC Differdange 03 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Swift Hesperange
2.57
Progres Niederkorn
2.33
F91 Dudelange
2.23
Union Titus Petange
1.97
FC Differdange 03
1.50
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.50
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.30
Wiltz
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.07
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Mondercange
0.97
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.90
Fola Esch
0.87
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.77
US Hostert
0.60
Bettembourg
0.00
F91 Dudelange is 0.73 points better than FC Differdange 03 in terms of average points per game (2.23 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swift Hesperange
3.33
Jeunesse Canach
3.00
F91 Dudelange
2.87
Progres Niederkorn
2.23
Union Titus Petange
2.07
FC Differdange 03
2.00
Bettembourg
2.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.73
Victoria Rosport
1.60
Wiltz
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.47
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.43
Mondercange
1.37
Fola Esch
1.26
UNA Strassen
1.10
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.07
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.06
US Hostert
0.67
F91 Dudelange is 0.87 goals better than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals scored per game (2.87 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Swift Hesperange
0.93
Progres Niederkorn
1.03
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Union Titus Petange
1.27
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.30
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.30
FC Differdange 03
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.53
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.73
Mondercange
1.83
Victoria Rosport
1.93
Wiltz
1.97
US Hostert
2.17
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.29
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.37
Fola Esch
2.39
Jeunesse Canach
3.00
Bettembourg
3.00
F91 Dudelange is 0.17 goals better than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
F91 Dudelange
For 6.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Differdange 03
For 2.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
F91 Dudelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
9.6
10.3
8.5
1.7
1.6
1.8
23.5
26.0
21.0
vs Stronger (4)
12.0
12.0
-
1.8
3.5
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
9.0
9.5
8.5
2.5
2.0
2.8
23.5
26.0
21.0
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
67%
0%
19%
12%
25%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
60%
33%
100%
81%
88%
75%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
12.5
10.0
15.0
1.8
2.6
1.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
12.5
10.0
15.0
3.0
4.3
1.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
20%
20%
20%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
0%
80%
80%
80%
-
-
-
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Differdange 03
12.5
F91 Dudelange
9.6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.5
Fola Esch
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
9.0
Fola Esch
7.0
F91 Dudelange
5.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
F91 Dudelange
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.7%
Under 9.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.0%
Under 3.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
F91 Dudelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.38
1.12
0.38
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
2.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.20
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
F91 Dudelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.88
1.38
0.75
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and FC Differdange 03 have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and FC Differdange 03 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and FC Differdange 03 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and FC Differdange 03 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →