This highly anticipated match between F91 Dudelange and UNA Strassen in the Luxembourg National Division is finely balanced, with the home side coming off a defeat against Atert Bissen, while UNA Strassen is riding a high after a 4-0 win over Victoria Rosport. The model predicts a home win, with a 37% chance of F91 Dudelange taking all three points, a 35% chance of UNA Strassen securing an away win, and a 28% chance of a draw.
The expected total goals are 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.3%. F91 Dudelange has a strong record at home, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding 1.17, while UNA Strassen has struggled to find the net away from home, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.0.
The model's selection is the home win, but it also suggests several other outcomes, including Under 9.5 corners (98.9%), Under 21.5 fouls (98.0%), Over 3.5 cards (93.9%), Over 1.5 (77.0%), and Under 3.5 (70.6%).
The away team, UNA Strassen, pulled off a stunning upset by defeating the home team, F91 Dudelange, 0-2. This win extends their current 2-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, F91 Dudelange, with a 37% chance of winning, failed to come through, and the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's selection was not the favourite, but it was still a surprising outcome.
The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, while the suggested pick, Over 1.5, with a 77% probability, hit, and Under 3.5, with a 70.6% probability, also hit. The most likely total goals was 2, but the actual score was 0-2.
F91 Dudelange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.17 | 1.86 | 1.07 | 1.62 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.81 | 1.29 | 1.78 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.56 | 0.89 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
UNA Strassen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 0.80 | 2.20 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.91 | 0.86 | 2.27 | 0.73 | 1.55 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.83 | 0.33 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
| UNA Strassen goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 13% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
F91 Dudelange
UNA Strassen
F91 Dudelange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.0 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 24.7 | 25.0 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (15) | 7.5 | - | 7.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 24.5 | - | 24.5 |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 13% | 4% | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 87% | 96% | 33% | 0% | 50% |
UNA Strassen| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 28.2 | 29.0 | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (38) | 6.5 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 29.0 | 26.0 | 32.0 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 27.5 | 32.0 | 23.0 |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 96% | 92% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
F91 Dudelange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.48 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
UNA Strassen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.50 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.33 | 0.17 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+47pp vs league) | |||||
F91 Dudelange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.64 | 1.06 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.05 | 0.81 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.00 | 0.44 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
UNA Strassen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.43 | 1.47 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.41 | 0.45 | 1.82 | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 91.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 4.5 cards | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/12/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 23/04/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 16/03/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/03/24 | H | 4-3 | |
| 27/09/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/03/23 | A | 1-2 |
F91 Dudelange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
UNA Strassen| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 30/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |