The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.5 goals and a 3-goal total the most likely. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 9.5% chance. F91 Dudelange, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while US Hostert, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded. The predicted outcome is a home win, with a 58% chance, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 20% chance of an away win. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards (97.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (94.5%), Over 3.5 cards (92.0%), Over 21.5 fouls (88.1%), Over 1.5 goals (87.4%, hit), Under 11.5 corners (85.2%), Over 4.5 cards (83.0%), and Over 23.5 fouls (78.1%).
Results analysis
The win for F91 Dudelange extends their two-game winning run, confirming the model’s confidence. The prediction favoured a home victory with a 58% probability, and the result matched that call, giving the model a correct verdict. The final score was 3-1, a home win that also satisfied the model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 87.4% probability. The most likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 9.5% chance, was not reached, but the overall outcome aligned with the forecast. The match reinforced the narrative that the home side’s recent form and offensive strength were decisive.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
F91 Dudelange win✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Hostert win✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
F91 Dudelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.30
2.50
1.29
1.50
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.50
2.40
1.50
1.70
1.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.90
2.75
0.75
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Hostert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.93
1.00
2.14
1.50
1.75
vs Stronger (17)
1.24
2.18
1.20
2.10
1.29
2.29
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.75
0.50
2.25
1.38
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-0
7.4%
3-1 ✓
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.5%
F91 Dudelange goals ↓
US Hostert goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
3.0%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
5.8%
9.4%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.5%
7.1%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
4
3.1%
3.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = F91 Dudelange goals (down), columns = US Hostert goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atert Bissen
2.17
FC Differdange 03
2.17
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.93
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.27
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.07
Jeunesse Canach
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Wiltz
1.00
Mamer
0.97
Rodange 91
0.83
Union Titus Petange
0.83
F91 Dudelange is 0.73 points better than US Hostert in terms of average points per game (1.93 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atert Bissen
2.33
FC Differdange 03
2.10
F91 Dudelange
1.97
UNA Strassen
1.90
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.70
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.47
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
US Hostert
1.17
Victoria Rosport
1.10
Mamer
1.06
Swift Hesperange
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Jeunesse Canach
0.97
Rodange 91
0.93
Union Titus Petange
0.87
Wiltz
0.00
F91 Dudelange is 0.80 goals better than US Hostert in terms of goals scored per game (1.97 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wiltz
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.80
UNA Strassen
0.87
Atert Bissen
0.90
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.13
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Jeunesse Canach
1.45
Swift Hesperange
1.53
Progres Niederkorn
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.60
Union Titus Petange
1.63
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
Victoria Rosport
1.67
US Hostert
1.87
Mamer
1.90
Rodange 91
2.17
F91 Dudelange is 0.60 goals better than US Hostert in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.87).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
F91 Dudelange
61%
Progres Niederkorn
60%
UNA Strassen
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
56%
FC Differdange 03
54%
US Hostert
53%
Rodange 91
52%
US Mondorf-les-bains
52%
Atert Bissen
51%
Jeunesse Canach
49%
Swift Hesperange
48%
AS Jeunesse Esch
46%
Mamer
45%
Union Titus Petange
45%
UN Kaerjeng 97
41%
Victoria Rosport
40%
F91 Dudelange is 8.1 percentage points better than US Hostert in terms of average possession (61% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
F91 Dudelange
For 4.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
US Hostert
For 5.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 13.8 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
F91 Dudelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
9.0
7.5
0.7
1.1
0.4
24.7
25.0
24.5
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
9.0
9.0
-
0.8
1.6
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (17)
7.5
-
7.5
0.7
0.0
1.2
24.5
-
24.5
% over line
0%
0%
0%
8%
13%
4%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
92%
87%
96%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Hostert
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.7
8.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
29.0
28.0
32.0
vs Stronger (28)
8.0
8.0
8.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
33.0
34.0
32.0
vs Similar (21)
9.0
9.0
-
0.6
1.3
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
8%
8%
8%
75%
67%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
92%
92%
92%
25%
33%
0%
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Mamer
10.3
Victoria Rosport
9.8
Rodange 91
9.3
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Jeunesse Canach
8.2
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
Union Titus Petange
5.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rodange 91
7.8
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Mamer
6.8
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
Union Titus Petange
6.2
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
Jeunesse Canach
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Jeunesse Canach
30.6
Swift Hesperange
30.4
Mamer
30.3
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
Rodange 91
28.0
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
Union Titus Petange
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.2%
Under 9.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
92.0%
Under 3.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
88.1%
Under 21.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
F91 Dudelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
1.00
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.60
1.10
0.70
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.60
0.75
0.50
0.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Hostert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.36
0.79
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.71
0.50
0.70
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
F91 Dudelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.70
1.50
0.64
1.06
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.20
0.90
1.30
0.80
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.30
2.00
0.25
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (US Hostert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Hostert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.27
0.64
1.36
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (17)
0.82
1.47
0.70
1.40
1.00
1.57
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.08
0.50
1.25
0.88
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (F91 Dudelange) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
F91 Dudelange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
F91 Dudelange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Hostert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 5.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and US Hostert have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and US Hostert have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and US Hostert have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
F91 Dudelange and US Hostert have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Atert Bissen
FC Differdange 03
US Mondorf-les-bains
UNA Strassen
AS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
Victoria Rosport
Progres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Canach
Mamer
Union Titus Petange
Rodange 91
Résidence Walferdange
Wiltz