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FA Šiauliai II vs Be1 NFA Result & Analysis

Date: 13/04/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-5
FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Vs
23%
27%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Be1 NFA to come out on top, a 27% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a home victory. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability. FA Šiauliai II, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded, while Be1 NFA on the road against a weaker opponent averages 1.62 goals scored and only 0.77 conceded. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 goals at 75.3% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.6%. The model’s selection for the match result remains an away win, with the home win probability at 23%, the draw at 27% and the away win at 50%. The recent form shows FA Šiauliai II coming off a defeat, whereas Be1 NFA is on a three-game winning run.

Results analysis

The match saw Be1 NFA extend their three-game winning streak, while FA Šiauliai II struggled after a recent defeat. The final score was 1-5, an away win that matched the model’s favourite, which was correctly called with a 50% probability. The predicted total of 2.6 goals fell far short of the actual six-goal output. The model’s Over 1.5 selection hit, with a 75.3% chance, whereas the Under 3.5 pick missed, having a 72.6% probability. The game delivered more goals than the most likely 2-goal outcome (26% chance) and confirmed the model’s forecast of an away victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L30W32W42W03L00D01L23L12L01LA·PAN11/10H·ŽAL23/10A·EKR28/10H·BFA05/11A·BAB08/11H·GAR09/03H·MIN16/03A·BAB22/03H·NEP29/03A·NEV05/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.231.801.931.072.53
vs Stronger (14)1.432.571.832.171.122.88
vs Similar (9)1.111.781.601.200.502.50
vs Weaker (7)1.862.142.002.501.671.67
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W10W01L31W11D01L31W20W02L20WH·JON27/10A·TRA31/10A·TRA04/11H·TRA08/11H·DŽI18/11A·DŽI25/11A·HEG07/03A·BAN17/03A·PAN29/03A·KAU05/04← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.001.621.231.530.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.331.441.401.801.251.00
vs Weaker (21)1.670.811.750.881.620.77
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.4%
0-0
8.3%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
6.0%
1-3
5.2%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
01234
08.3%10%9.4%5.1%2.1%
16.1%13%9.6%5.2%2.1%
23.7%6.0%4.9%2.6%1.1%
31.2%2.0%1.7%0.9%0.4%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
FA Šiauliai II is 1.03 points worse than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 2.10).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
FA Šiauliai II is 0.13 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
FA Šiauliai II is 1.43 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (2.30 vs 0.87).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W11D21W01L00D00D13L01L01LA·PAN11/10H·ŽAL23/10A·EKR28/10H·BFA05/11A·BAB08/11H·GAR09/03H·MIN16/03A·BAB22/03H·NEP29/03A·NEV05/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.030.930.870.401.20
vs Stronger (14)0.641.360.831.170.501.50
vs Similar (9)0.560.670.800.400.251.00
vs Weaker (7)0.860.861.251.000.330.67
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W00D20W10W00D20W10W01L10WH·JON27/10A·TRA31/10A·TRA04/11H·TRA08/11H·DŽI18/11A·DŽI25/11A·HEG07/03A·BAN17/03A·PAN29/03A·KAU05/04← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.690.620.710.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.560.400.800.750.25
vs Weaker (21)0.760.430.880.500.690.38
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W21W21W02L00D01L10W11D00DA·PAN11/10H·ŽAL23/10A·EKR28/10H·BFA05/11A·BAB08/11H·GAR09/03H·MIN16/03A·BAB22/03H·NEP29/03A·NEV05/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.200.871.070.671.33
vs Stronger (14)0.791.211.001.000.621.38
vs Similar (9)0.561.110.800.800.251.50
vs Weaker (7)1.001.290.751.501.331.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L11D01L01L11D10W01L10WH·JON27/10A·TRA31/10A·TRA04/11H·TRA08/11H·DŽI18/11A·DŽI25/11A·HEG07/03A·BAN17/03A·PAN29/03A·KAU05/04← A Lyga1 Lyga →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.530.920.620.820.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.780.891.001.000.500.75
vs Weaker (21)0.900.380.880.380.920.38
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
FŠI wins
0
Draws
3
BN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FA Šiauliai II vs Be1 NFA · H/A from FŠI
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/23ABe1 NFA Vs FŠI2-1
20/03/23HFŠI Vs Be1 NFA2-1
07/09/22ABe1 NFA Vs FŠI2-0
09/04/22HFŠI Vs Be1 NFA0-2

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/24ANevėžis Vs FŠI1-0
29/03/24HFŠI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda1-2
22/03/24ABabrungas Vs FŠI3-2
16/03/24HFŠI Vs Minija0-1
09/03/24HFŠI Vs Garliava0-0
08/11/23ABabrungas Vs FŠI3-0
05/11/23HFŠI Vs BFA4-2
28/10/23AEkranas Vs FŠI2-3
23/10/23HFŠI Vs Žalgiris II3-0
11/10/23APanevėžys II Vs FŠI3-0

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BN0-2
29/03/24APanevėžys II Vs BN2-0
17/03/24ABanga II Vs BN0-2
07/03/24AHegelmann II Vs BN1-3
25/11/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs BN1-0
18/11/23HBN Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-1
08/11/23HBN Vs Trakai II3-1
04/11/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BN1-0
31/10/23ATrakai II Vs BN0-1
27/10/23HBN Vs Jonava4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.90
HomeWWDLL1.04
AwayLWLLL0.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%26%22%
AVG goals3.303.223.39
Over 1.5 %80%70%91%
Over 2.5 %68%67%70%
Over 3.5 %36%41%30%
Scored1.301.481.09
Conceded2.001.742.30
BTTS54%59%48%
Clean Sheet12%11%13%
Corners---
Cards---
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.78
HomeWDWWD2.00
AwayLWWLW1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%57%48%
AVG goals2.382.612.19
Over 1.5 %76%87%67%
Over 2.5 %38%43%33%
Over 3.5 %16%22%11%
Scored1.481.651.33
Conceded0.900.960.85
BTTS50%61%41%
Clean Sheet38%30%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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