The model sees a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.4 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% chance. Home side FA Šiauliai II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. Away Be1 NFA, on a three-game winning streak, averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded against weaker teams. The odds favour an away win, with a 46% probability, followed by a 29% chance for a home win and a 24% chance of a draw. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.7%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), Away +2 handicap (86.2%), Over 1.5 (85.7%), and Away over 0.5 goals (84.8%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win chance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FA Šiauliai II win
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.97
1.33
2.07
1.60
1.87
vs Stronger (15)
1.53
1.73
1.14
1.71
1.88
1.75
vs Similar (11)
1.55
2.00
1.67
2.17
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
2.75
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.14
1.71
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
2.50
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (26)
1.62
1.35
1.15
1.46
2.08
1.23
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.3%
Under 2.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
5.5%
0-1
5.4%
0-0
4.4%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.4%
5.9%
3.6%
1.7%
1
4.3%
11%
8.9%
5.5%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.4%
6.8%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.0%
3.7%
3.5%
2.1%
1.0%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
FA Šiauliai II is 0.33 points worse than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
FA Šiauliai II is 0.67 goals worse than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
FA Šiauliai II and Be1 NFA are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FA Šiauliai II or Draw
55.6%
Avg Implied -
31%
24%
44%
covers FA Šiauliai II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II or Be1 NFA
75.6%
Avg Implied -
31%
24%
44%
covers FA Šiauliai II + Be1 NFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Be1 NFA
68.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
24%
44%
covers Draw + Be1 NFA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 3.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FA Šiauliai II, so a minus line means FA Šiauliai II give that many goals of a start and Be1 NFA receive them. At -1, FA Šiauliai II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FA Šiauliai II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II -2
5.7%
Draw -2
9.3%
Be1 NFA +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II -1
15.1%
Draw -1
16.1%
Be1 NFA +1
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II +1
55.6%
Draw +1
19.6%
Be1 NFA -1
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II +2
75.2%
Draw +2
13.7%
Be1 NFA -2
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
0.67
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.73
0.50
0.77
0.54
0.69
0.46
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.73
1.33
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
1.07
0.43
1.14
1.12
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
1.00
1.50
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.43
1.07
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.85
0.38
0.92
1.38
0.77
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →