FA Šiauliai II is coming off a draw, having last played Atmosfera in a 1-1 scoreline. Conversely, BFA is riding a recent win, following a 4-2 victory over Transinvest 2. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.4%.
FA Šiauliai II has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.83 goals while conceding 2.5 per match against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, BFA has excelled on the road, scoring 2.5 goals and conceding just 1 against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 86.2%. This pick offers a 5% edge. The model predicts an away win, with a 47% probability, making it the favourite match result. The home win percentage is 29%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 47%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, is the home side's most likely selection, with a 86.2% probability.
Results analysis
FA Šiauliai II's 1-0 win extends their run of inconsistent form, coming off a draw. In a shocking turn of events, the pre-match favourite, BFA, failed to deliver, with the model correctly predicting an away win. The model's selection, BFA to win, had a 47% chance of success, but unfortunately, it was the home side that took the points. The model's suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed, with a probability of 86.2% and an edge of 5%. The most likely score, 1-1, had a 10.4% chance of occurring, but it was not to be. The expected total goals was 3.4, with 3 being the most likely total goals, having a 22% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FA Šiauliai II win✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 4.84
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.23
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.03
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
4.10
BFA win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied 59.4% · @ 1.50
Edge
-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Dafabet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.27
1.27
2.13
1.67
2.40
vs Stronger (14)
1.57
1.86
1.14
1.71
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
2.10
1.60
2.40
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
3.50
1.00
2.67
1.33
4.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.30
1.65
1.00
1.77
1.69
vs Stronger (16)
1.75
1.31
1.67
1.11
1.86
1.57
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.62
1.80
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
0.83
1.33
0.33
2.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.2%
@ 1.14+5.3%
Under 1.5
13.8%
@ 4.83-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
4.75
Unibet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.0%
@ 1.52+5.7%
Under 2.5
34.0%
@ 2.30-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Under
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.28
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.1%
@ 2.22+3.3%
Under 3.5
55.9%
@ 1.53-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Under
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.8%
@ 1.56+8.8%
No
33.2%
@ 2.16-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
Unibet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 7.89+5.1%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.20+3.3%
2-1
7.0%@ 14.14+4.0%
2-2
6.7%@ 12.43+3.4%
0-2
6.2%@ 7.70+0.7%
1-3
5.8%@ 9.91+1.6%
0-1
5.5%@ 8.01+0.3%
2-3
4.3%@ 16.71+1.8%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
BFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
5.5%
6.2%
4.0%
1.9%
1
4.0%
10%
9.1%
5.8%
2.8%
2
3.6%
7.0%
6.7%
4.3%
2.1%
3
1.8%
3.4%
3.3%
2.1%
1.0%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.60
Minija
2.25
Babrungas
2.17
BFA
2.17
Dainava
1.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.67
Tauras
1.60
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Be1 NFA
1.20
Jonava
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Transinvest 2
0.80
Ekranas
0.67
Garliava
0.00
FA Šiauliai II is 0.77 points worse than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
3.00
BFA
2.17
Žalgiris II
2.00
Babrungas
1.83
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.60
Atmosfera
1.40
Dainava
1.40
Tauras
1.40
Transinvest 2
1.40
Hegelmann II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.00
Jonava
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Garliava
0.20
FA Šiauliai II is 1.17 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.25
Babrungas
0.50
Žalgiris II
0.60
Dainava
0.80
BFA
0.83
Jonava
1.00
Tauras
1.20
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.60
Garliava
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.00
Transinvest 2
2.00
Hegelmann II
2.50
Ekranas
2.67
FA Šiauliai II is 0.57 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.13
0.60
1.13
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.57
0.71
0.86
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.10
0.80
1.60
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
2.17
0.00
1.67
0.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.59
0.47
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.69
0.44
0.44
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.13
0.67
1.00
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.14
0.43
1.14
1.29
1.14
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.06
0.53
1.00
1.08
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
0.62
1.22
0.67
1.29
0.57
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.12
1.00
0.60
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.2%
1.14
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.11
-
-
+5.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and BFA have a similar squad value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Babrungas
Žalgiris II
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Tauras
Jonava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava