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FA Šiauliai II vs Garliava Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 0-0
FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Vs
40%
24%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.5 goals expected and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.2% probability, and the favourite result is a home win. Home form is strong against weaker opposition, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 3.33 conceded, while the away side struggles on the road, scoring 1.69 and conceding 1.54 against stronger opponents. The home win probability sits at 40%, the draw at 24%, and the away win at 36%. The model’s single selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.2% chance. Recent form suggests the home side is still recovering from a defeat, whereas the away side is coming off five straight losses.

Results analysis

The 0-0 stalemate stunned everyone, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise. With a 40% chance of triumph, the model’s call was wrong, and the match ended in a draw. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 87.2%, also missed, confirming the low-scoring affair. FA Šiauliai II, coming off a defeat and with a recent run of L W L D W, could not break through, while Garliava, after five straight losses, managed only a goalless night. The final score of 0-0 matched the model’s 22% probability for the most likely total of three goals, but the actual outcome was a quiet draw.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-10010L22D12L22D33D03L30W32W42W03LA·TRA30/08H·TRA16/09A·MIN23/09H·KAU02/10H·GAR07/10A·PAN11/10H·ŽAL23/10A·EKR28/10H·BFA05/11A·BAB08/11
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.202.072.071.072.33
vs Stronger (16)1.502.311.882.121.122.50
vs Similar (8)1.251.752.001.000.502.50
vs Weaker (6)2.172.502.673.331.671.67
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D11D20W33D00D10W11D40W02LA·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09A·FA 07/10H·KAU13/10H·PAN20/10A·ŽAL28/10H·EKR04/11A·BFA08/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.231.270.931.601.53
vs Stronger (26)1.421.311.151.081.691.54
vs Similar (4)1.500.752.000.001.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.0%
2-0
4.9%
1-0
4.5%
1-3
4.5%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
Garliava goals →
01234
04.0%4.2%4.4%2.5%1.1%
14.5%10%7.9%4.5%1.9%
24.9%8.3%7.1%4.0%1.7%
32.9%5.0%4.2%2.4%1.0%
41.3%2.2%1.9%1.1%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = Garliava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
FA Šiauliai II is 0.30 points better than Garliava in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 0.77).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
FA Šiauliai II is 0.80 goals better than Garliava in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
FA Šiauliai II is 0.60 goals worse than Garliava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.30 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L11D02L10W11D01L20W11D21W01LA·TRA30/08H·TRA16/09A·MIN23/09H·KAU02/10H·GAR07/10A·PAN11/10H·ŽAL23/10A·EKR28/10H·BFA05/11A·BAB08/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.971.001.000.400.93
vs Stronger (16)0.621.060.751.120.501.00
vs Similar (8)0.620.751.000.500.251.00
vs Weaker (6)1.001.001.671.330.330.67
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L10W00D11D00D10W00D30W01LA·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09A·FA 07/10H·KAU13/10H·PAN20/10A·ŽAL28/10H·EKR04/11A·BFA08/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.430.670.270.730.60
vs Stronger (26)0.650.460.540.310.770.62
vs Similar (4)1.000.251.500.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L11D10W12L22D02L10W21W21W02LA·TRA30/08H·TRA16/09A·MIN23/09H·KAU02/10H·GAR07/10A·PAN11/10H·ŽAL23/10A·EKR28/10H·BFA05/11A·BAB08/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.231.071.070.671.40
vs Stronger (16)0.881.251.121.000.621.50
vs Similar (8)0.621.001.000.500.251.50
vs Weaker (6)1.171.501.002.001.331.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L20W22D00D00D11D10W01LA·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09A·FA 07/10H·KAU13/10H·PAN20/10A·ŽAL28/10H·EKR04/11A·BFA08/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.600.670.870.93
vs Stronger (26)0.770.850.620.770.920.92
vs Similar (4)0.500.500.500.000.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Garliava have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
FŠI wins
1
Draws
2
GAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FA Šiauliai II vs Garliava · H/A from FŠI
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HFŠI Vs Garliava3-3
20/05/23AGarliava Vs FŠI3-0
09/07/22HFŠI Vs Garliava0-3

FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/23ABabrungas Vs FŠI3-0
05/11/23HFŠI Vs BFA4-2
28/10/23AEkranas Vs FŠI2-3
23/10/23HFŠI Vs Žalgiris II3-0
11/10/23APanevėžys II Vs FŠI3-0
07/10/23HFŠI Vs Garliava3-3
02/10/23HFŠI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II2-2
23/09/23AMinija Vs FŠI2-1
16/09/23HFŠI Vs Trakai II2-2
30/08/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs FŠI10-0

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/23ABFA Vs GAR2-0
04/11/23HGAR Vs Ekranas4-0
28/10/23AŽalgiris II Vs GAR1-1
20/10/23HGAR Vs Panevėžys II1-0
13/10/23HGAR Vs Kauno Žalgiris II0-0
07/10/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs GAR3-3
30/09/23HGAR Vs Minija2-0
23/09/23ATrakai II Vs GAR1-1
16/09/23HGAR Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-1
01/09/23AJonava Vs GAR2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL0.88
HomeDDDWW1.08
AwayLLLWL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals3.383.403.36
Over 1.5 %86%76%96%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %36%44%28%
Scored1.241.560.92
Conceded2.141.842.44
BTTS50%60%40%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWL1.32
HomeDWDWW1.42
AwayLDDDL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals2.762.463.04
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %28%21%35%
Scored1.381.251.50
Conceded1.381.211.54
BTTS54%42%65%
Clean Sheet28%38%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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