The match is set to be a high-scoring affair, with the model forecasting an average of 3.6 goals. The most probable total is three, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.5% chance. Home side FA Šiauliai II, who have been coming off a defeat, will face a weaker opponent at home, scoring an average of one goal and conceding three. Kauno Žalgiris II, on a two-game winning run, will travel to a stronger side, averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.15 conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, while the draw sits at 23% and the away win at 26%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.6%, Under 6.5 at 92.8%, Over 1.5 at 88.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 87.7%, Home +2 handicap at 87.7%, Under 5.5 at 84.6%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 83.9%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FA Šiauliai II win
50.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II win
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.97
1.33
2.07
1.60
1.87
vs Stronger (15)
1.53
1.73
1.14
1.71
1.88
1.75
vs Similar (11)
1.55
2.00
1.67
2.17
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
2.75
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.00
1.62
1.94
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (27)
1.48
2.04
1.57
1.93
1.38
2.15
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.8%
Under 2.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
6.8%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.8%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
3.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
1
4.9%
9.5%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
2
6.0%
9.0%
6.8%
3.4%
1.3%
3
4.2%
6.3%
4.8%
2.4%
0.9%
4
2.2%
3.3%
2.5%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
FA Šiauliai II is 0.33 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
FA Šiauliai II is 0.83 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
FA Šiauliai II is 0.17 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FA Šiauliai II or Draw
73.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
26%
covers FA Šiauliai II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II or Kauno Žalgiris II
77.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
26%
covers FA Šiauliai II + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
49.2%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
26%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5
Over
62.2%
Under
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 3.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FA Šiauliai II, so a minus line means FA Šiauliai II give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, FA Šiauliai II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FA Šiauliai II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II -2
15.2%
Draw -2
15.5%
Kauno Žalgiris II +2
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II -1
30.7%
Draw -1
20.1%
Kauno Žalgiris II +1
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II +1
73.5%
Draw +1
14.1%
Kauno Žalgiris II -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FA Šiauliai II)
FA Šiauliai II +2
87.6%
Draw +2
7.8%
Kauno Žalgiris II -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
0.67
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.31
1.19
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
0.93
0.36
1.14
1.08
0.69
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.73
1.33
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
1.07
0.43
1.14
1.12
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
1.00
1.50
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.31
0.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
1.11
1.21
0.79
0.31
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava