FA Šiauliai II faces a tough challenge against Žalgiris II, with the away team's recent form suggesting they're on a roll. Žalgiris II is coming off a win, having defeated Kauno Žalgiris II 2-1, while FA Šiauliai II is coming off a draw against Atmosfera. Žalgiris II's away form has been decent, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 2 on average against weaker opponents. In contrast, FA Šiauliai II's home form has been weaker, scoring 0.86 goals and conceding 2.29 on average against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a Žalgiris II win, with a 49% chance of an away victory. The most likely total number of goals is 2, and the expected total goals is 3.1. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.8%. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 81.9% chance of occurrence. The home win percentage is 26%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 49%.
Results analysis
The win extends FA Šiauliai II's recent form storyline of inconsistency, coming off a defeat, but they were unable to prevent Žalgiris II's 2-game winning run from continuing. The final score was 1-4, with Žalgiris II securing the away win, as predicted by the model. Žalgiris II were the pre-match favourite, with a 49% probability of winning, and the model's call was correct. The model's selection, Žalgiris II to win, was the favourite, and it landed. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 81.9% probability, and the actual total goals scored was 5.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.75
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.90
Betano
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
1xBet
2.79
William Hil
2.75
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.56
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
Bet365
3.70
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Dafabet
3.60
Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
48.6%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.10
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.15
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.12
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.10
1.27
2.00
1.67
2.20
vs Stronger (14)
1.57
1.86
1.14
1.71
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.91
1.50
2.00
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
3.20
1.00
3.00
1.33
3.33
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.43
1.73
1.40
1.80
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
1.75
1.62
1.25
1.50
2.25
1.75
vs Similar (14)
1.93
1.07
2.00
1.29
1.86
0.86
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
1.88
1.75
1.50
1.25
2.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
@ 1.15+0.1%
Under 1.5
18.1%
@ 5.15-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.48-2.2%
Under 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.32+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Under
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.21-4.6%
Under 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.54+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.28
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.64
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.52
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.8%
@ 1.41-2.9%
No
39.2%
@ 2.48+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.44
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.33
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.50
William Hil
2.50
BetVictor
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 6.92+5.6%
1-2
9.5%@ 8.25+4.4%
0-2
7.6%@ 11.83+4.0%
0-1
7.4%@ 10.00+3.1%
2-1
6.8%@ 9.33+2.2%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.33+1.9%
0-0
5.8%@ 14.42+2.9%
1-3
5.7%@ 13.83+2.6%
FA Šiauliai II goals ↓
Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
7.4%
7.6%
4.5%
2.0%
1
4.9%
12%
9.5%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.8%
6.8%
6.0%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.5%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FA Šiauliai II goals (down), columns = Žalgiris II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
FA Šiauliai II is 1.55 points worse than Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
FA Šiauliai II is 1.14 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
FA Šiauliai II is 0.64 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.57
0.71
0.86
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.00
0.83
1.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.80
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.73
0.73
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.71
1.14
0.43
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.60
1.00
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.14
0.43
1.14
1.29
1.14
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.91
0.67
0.67
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
1.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.00
0.67
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.50
1.14
0.57
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.9%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
FA Šiauliai II and Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →