The model favours an away win, with a 49% chance of Domagnano triumphing, 29% for a draw and 22% for Faetano. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Faetano, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Domagnano, on the road, has a potent 2.57 average scored and only 0.86 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (96.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.2%), Away +2 handicap (91.9%) and Under 4.5 (90.0%). Faetano’s recent form shows three consecutive losses and a 0-4 defeat to Juvenes / Dogana, whereas Domagnano has returned from a win, having beaten Cailungo 2-1.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Faetano win
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Domagnano win
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Faetano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.80
0.80
1.47
0.60
2.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.20
1.40
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.70
1.10
1.50
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Domagnano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.37
1.93
1.50
1.81
1.25
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.64
1.00
1.40
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (13)
2.54
1.46
2.50
2.17
2.57
0.86
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
11.7%
0-0
9.9%
0-2
9.7%
1-2
9.2%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
4.8%
Faetano goals ↓
Domagnano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
12%
9.7%
4.8%
1.8%
1
7.0%
14%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
3.9%
5.9%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.2%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Faetano goals (down), columns = Domagnano goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Faetano and Domagnano are level in average points per game (both 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Faetano is 0.50 goals worse than Domagnano in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Faetano is 1.00 goals better than Domagnano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Faetano or Draw
51.4%
Avg Implied -
23%
29%
49%
covers Faetano + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Faetano or Domagnano
71.4%
Avg Implied -
23%
29%
49%
covers Faetano + Domagnano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Domagnano
77.2%
Avg Implied -
23%
29%
49%
covers Draw + Domagnano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Faetano over/under 0.5
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Faetano, so a minus line means Faetano give that many goals of a start and Domagnano receive them. At -1, Faetano must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Faetano win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Faetano)
Faetano -2
2.2%
Draw -2
6.1%
Domagnano +2
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Faetano)
Faetano -1
8.4%
Draw -1
14.4%
Domagnano +1
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Faetano)
Faetano +1
51.4%
Draw +1
23.4%
Domagnano -1
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Faetano)
Faetano +2
74.7%
Draw +2
15.2%
Domagnano -2
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Faetano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.83
0.13
0.87
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Domagnano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.17
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.54
1.17
1.00
1.71
0.14
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Faetano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Faetano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.67
0.60
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.90
0.90
0.50
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Domagnano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.07
0.93
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.82
0.40
1.00
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.92
1.33
1.17
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Faetano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Faetano and Domagnano have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Faetano and Domagnano have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Faetano and Domagnano have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Faetano and Domagnano have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Murata