The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating Tre Fiori at 70% while Faetano sits at only 10%. The 70% advantage comes from Tre Fiori’s strong away form - they average 1.77 goals scored and only 0.31 conceded on the road against weaker opponents - versus Faetano’s 0.57 scored and 2.57 conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total is 3.0 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 12.8% chance. Home win 10%, draw 20%, away win70%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 80.2% and an Away win at 70.2%. The edge for the Over 1.5 pick is 80.2%. The recent form shows Faetano struggling after three straight losses, while Tre Fiori came off a win, reinforcing the model’s preference for the away side.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Away win, did not materialise. The match finished 3-3, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had assigned a 70.2% probability to the Away win, yet the game ended in a stalemate. The other selection, Over 1.5, was a hit, with an 80.2% chance and indeed more than one goal per side. Faetano had been on a three-game losing streak, while Tre Fiori had come off a win, yet both sides were evenly matched in the final tally. The outcome undercut the model’s expectation of a decisive away victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Faetano win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori win✗ Miss
70.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Faetano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.47
1.07
2.40
1.33
2.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
2.85
0.57
2.57
0.50
3.17
vs Similar (17)
1.71
2.18
1.50
2.25
1.89
2.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.63
1.40
0.87
1.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.29
0.60
1.40
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.78
0.43
1.80
0.60
1.77
0.31
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.8%
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-3
9.5%
1-1
9.4%
1-3
7.0%
0-0
6.1%
0-4
5.2%
Faetano goals ↓
Tre Fiori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
11%
13%
9.5%
5.2%
1
3.0%
9.4%
9.5%
7.0%
3.9%
2
1.4%
3.2%
3.5%
2.6%
1.4%
3
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Faetano goals (down), columns = Tre Fiori goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
Faetano is 0.95 points worse than Tre Fiori in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
Faetano is 0.31 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
Faetano is 1.63 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals conceded per game (2.63 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Faetano
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Fiori
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Faetano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (39)
9.0
7.5
10.5
0.7
0.6
0.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
9.5
7.0
12.0
1.4
1.0
1.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
8.5
8.0
9.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
-
-
-
% over line
25%
0%
50%
10%
10%
11%
-
-
-
% under line
75%
100%
50%
90%
90%
89%
-
-
-
This opponent (Faetano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Faetano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.33
1.07
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.23
0.43
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.71
0.25
1.12
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.23
0.53
0.27
0.73
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.57
0.20
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.78
0.13
0.70
0.20
0.85
0.08
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Faetano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Faetano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.53
0.73
1.33
0.73
1.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
1.62
0.14
1.57
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.47
1.25
1.12
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.00
0.30
1.10
0.40
0.92
0.23
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Faetano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Faetano's squad is €1m less valuable than Tre Fiori's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Faetano and Tre Fiori have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Faetano and Tre Fiori have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Faetano and Tre Fiori have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Tre Penne
Murata
Cosmos
Juvenes / Dogana
San Giovanni
Folgore
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Libertas
San Marino Academy
Cailungo
Pennarossa